Sunday wraps up the first “half” of the regular season, with the four-day All-Star Break commencing Monday. The featured action is underway today at 1:35 p.m. ET with a 10-game set on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is has elected to go with a five-game set locking at 4:05 p.m. ET. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Nick Lodolo and Jose Quintana as the desired pitchers for the afternoon action, with Chris Sale anchoring the late slate. Philadelphia looks to be well positioned for crooked numbers once again, while Atlanta is unlikely to be blanked for a second consecutive game.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 14
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Jose Quintana (NYM vs. COL)
Mets vs. Rockies – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
$7,900 at DraftKings
$8,700 at FanDuel
$41 at Yahoo
Sunday’s best pitchers are all on the late slate, so the featured slate will be all about matchups and salary. Veteran LHP Jose Quintana easily checks the first box going against the Rockies, and he is not exactly a budget buster either.
Quintana is coming off back-to-back seven-inning outings against the Washington Nationals, having allowed five hits, four walks and no runs in this pair of performances. The six strikeouts are lacking, though the Nats are decent at limiting whiffs. In his five June starts, Quintana had 26 strikeouts in 24 innings, so while he is not dominant, he can still take what the opposition gives.
This season, looking at wRC+ — which is an advanced metric that neutralizes park factors and other variables, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100 — the Rockies are in the bottom 5 versus lefties (86) and on the road (81). They also have the second-worst offense at home with an 81 wRC+ this season. Yes, the volume and actual runs produced in Coors Field are substantial, but the efficiency is horrible and nearly 20% below league average.
The projected lineup for Colorado is likely to feature six different hitters who have struck out at an above-average rate versus southpaws since the beginning of last year. Quintana is not a sexy selection, but he should be able to take care of business this afternoon.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Nick Lodolo (CIN vs. MIA)
Reds vs. Marlins – 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
$9,800 at DraftKings
$9,900 at FanDuel
$48 at Yahoo
After skipping a start with a blister issue, LHP Nick Lodolo had a not-so-nice 69-pitch performance on Tuesday against the dreadful Rockies, allowing a pair of home runs and four of six baserunners to score. He had just one walk and four strikeouts in his 3.2 inning outing, but that is a slim silver lining, particularly at today’s salary on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Lodolo has recorded more than six strikeouts only twice in his last nine (22%) starts, which is disappointing for someone who is known as a strikeout artist. The Marlins are in the middle of the pack with a 22.6% strikeout rate against southpaws, but they are dead last with a 73 wRC+ that is nearly a full standard deviation worse than the White Sox. Yikes!
Late Slate Primary Target: LHP Chris Sale (ATL at SD)
Braves at Padres – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
$10,200 at DraftKings
$11,200 at FanDuel
$57 at Yahoo
There are several fine pitching options for the late slate, with RHP Logan Gilbert getting a nice matchup against the Angels in Anaheim and LHP Blake Snell facing a dinged-up Twins squad in San Francisco. RHP Zac Gallen has allowed eight runs in his last 9.1 innings, but he has a “get right” spot against the struggling Blue Jays, with the Chase Field roof closed in Arizona this afternoon.
Even with this terrific trio of throwers, LHP Chris Sale is still the top dog. The veteran lefty has a slight edge over RHP Zack Wheeler in the National League Cy Young Award race, with rookie Paul Skenes also breaking away from the peloton, though still behind his elders. Surprisingly, Sale has never won the award, but in the seven seasons between 2012 and 2018, he was among the top 6 receiving votes each year.
Injuries have limited Sale over the last five years, with today marking his 49th start since the end of the 2019 season. Sale leads the league with 12 wins, but more importantly, he also has the best ERA+ (151) and FIP (2.21). The 35-year-old also ranks fourth among all qualified starters with 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Xander Bogaerts has returned from his shoulder injury, though he did receive a day off yesterday as the team has elected to ease him back after missing nearly two months. While his presence helps the lineup, the absence of Fernando Tatis Jr. is glaring, with Manny Machado and Ha-Seong Kim being the only other above-average bats against lefties this season. Donovan Solano and Luis Arraez will at least make contact and potentially force Sale to use a few extra pitches on them, but otherwise this looks like a great matchup for the southpaw.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies vs. Athletics – 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Joey Estes
DK Top Stack %: 12.8%
FD Top Stack %: 12.6%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool loved the Phillies yesterday and is going right back to the well on Sunday. The team had four home runs and three doubles yesterday, with an elite 11 runs scored and a steal for good measure. RHP Joey Estes had a complete game shutout against the Angels at the start of the month, but in his last appearance he was chased after 1.2 innings, giving up eight runs to the Red Sox in Boston.
Estes was acquired in from Atlanta as part of the Matt Olson trade, along with Shea Langeliers, Cristian Pache and RHP Ryan Cusick. Estes was selected out of high school in the 16th round of the 2019 MLB Draft, so, of course, the 2020 MiLB season being cancelled by the pandemic derailed his development. The 24-year-old is an adequate pitcher, but his 92 mph fastball does not have enough umph and his breaking balls lack swing-and-miss upside. He can survive against bad teams, but not a top-shelf offense like the one in Philadelphia.
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are back from their respective maladies and locked in, leaving catcher J.T. Realmuto as the only missing cog in this high-performance offense. Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh all profile well against Estes, with Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott being fine selections from the heart of the order. Catcher Rafael Marchan is just $3,400 on DraftKings, which will help average down the lofty salaries of the big dogs.
Late Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves
Braves at Padres – 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Randy Vasquez
DK Top Stack %: 20.3%
FD Top Stack %: 20.2%
Even though RHP Randy Vasquez has allowed a scant trio of runs in his last three starts. Across these 15.1 innings, he has just 10 strikeouts, which is basically par for the course. He also has a paltry 16.7% strikeout rat and a 47.1% hard hit rate across his last 424 batters faced. The Regression Monster is lurking and very hungry.
Even without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris II, Atlanta has a top-tier offense. While losing this dynamic duo keeps this crew from being elite, it is still an All-Star-laden lineup. Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies continue to be a strong core. Tonight we want to focus on lefties as the first priority, with Olson and switch-hitter Albies joined by former Seattle uber-prospect Jarred Kelenic and savvy veteran Eddie Rosario.
To be clear, the right-handers are also in play and can be augmented by Adam Duvall and whichever catcher draws the start between Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud.
If you need some more tips on how to use the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup study process, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on how to maximize your lessons learned from the Sims! Check it out HERE.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Today, RHP Jameson Taillon will be squaring off against the Cardinals in St. Louis, where game-time temperatures will be in the low-90s with elevated humidity in the 60% to 65% range.
Currently the under on his 4.5 Strikeouts is popping on BetRivers, where it is currently available at -114 odds.
OddsShopper shows this wager has -125 “true odds” for Taillon to fall under five strikeouts, which brings a strong 4.5% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Pinnacle all the way down at a -172 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 11% expected ROI.
Taillon is a solid pitcher, but he never really broke through after being a long-time top prospect for Pittsburgh. He is averaging 7.42 strikeouts per nine innings, which is his lowest rate since 2019. The projected St. Louis lineup has struck out just 21.2% of the time against right-handed hurlers over the last season and change, with Taillon posting a similarly tepid 20.9% strikeout rate across his last 1,016 batters faced.
In a fun twist that is worth calling out, the 32-year-old has seven or more strikeouts in three of his last four games. Of course, he also has four or fewer whiffs in eight of his 15 (53%) starts this year. Ideally the ball will be jumping off the bat for the Redbirds and they can burn through Taillon’s pitch count before he gets his fifth strikeout of the game.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Sunday, July 14
Sunday looks pretty good from a precipitation perspective, with only New York and Philadelphia having anything worthy of a mention. Be sure to check back with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show at 12:30 p.m. ET brought to you by Underdog Fantasy – new users, use this link to receive a first-deposit match up to $250!
