MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 10
Editor’s note: Stokastic’s NEW Pick’em Package!
Elevate your pick’em strategy with Stokastic’s top-tier projections! Our Pick’em package includes the PrizePicks Optimizer, making it easy to build +EV entries. Whether you’re a seasoned pick’em pro or just starting out, our tools and expert insights provide unbeatable value.
For a limited time, use promo code PICKEM25 to get 25% off Stokastic’s Pick’em Tools for PrizePicks, Underdog and DraftKings Pick6!
Don’t miss this deal as we head into the busiest section of the sports calendar!
And be sure to explore our full breakdowns of Stokastic+ NFL subscriptions and CFB DFS packages for detailed pricing and a complete overview of the tools and data available at each tier.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
The Angels did pop off for six runs in a victory last night, but that was more about a meltdown by rookie RHP David Festa than it was about the Los Angeles offense. Over his last 10 starts, Lopez has a 2.27 ERA, 3.16 FIP and 3.33 xFIP, with five home runs allowed. Though his 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings are less than spectacular for DFS purposes, he still has 9.59 per nine innings for the season.
The projected lineup for Anaheim has a 30.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Only Nolan Schanuel (16.2%) and Anthony Rendon (14.7%) are striking out below league average. Rendon (.056 ISO) and Brandon Drury (.060 ISO) have completely lost any power upside in same-handed matchups this season.
To say he is outperforming that range is really an understatement, as the rookie has 10.87 strikeouts per nine innings across 125 frames. Looking at this last 10 starts, he has only a 3-5 record, but the strikeouts have been there with 11.41 per nine. He has lowered his walks somewhat from 4.32 per nine on the season down to 3.38 in this timeframe, but that still is a risk.
The projected lineup for the A’s has a .157 ISO and a 25.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The bottom of the order is definitely a three-up, three-down situation, but there is some risk across the top half with all the power from Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker, Seth Brown, Shea Langeliers and JJ Bleday. This is a both-sideser (h/t TMcB) situation, particularly if Arrighetti’s popularity crests over 25% on DraftKings or Yahoo. On FanDuel, it doesn’t appear that any pitcher is going to crack the 15% mark, so it is less of an opportunity.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Cleveland Guardians
RHP Jonathan Cannon survived against the Batters of Birdland, holding the Orioles to one solo shot in Baltimore last Wednesday. However, he had allowed 14 earned runs in the three preceding starts, with nine walks and only 11 strikeouts across 15 innings.
Cannon does not have much strikeout upside, projecting for 5.8 to 6.4 per nine innings. He has a couple of “heavy” pitches, meaning they tend to sink through the zone, leading to more ground balls and a lower launch angle. That still leads to plenty of balls in play, including line drives – which, of course, turn into run-scoring extra-base hits when runners are on board.
Jose Ramirez is one of the best hitters in the league from both sides of the plate. Josh Naylor and his prodigious light-tower power should not have any issues against Cannon, with brother Bo Naylor looking like a nice punt catcher on DraftKings ($3,100) and to a lesser extent on Yahoo ($11).
Steven Kwan, Will Brennan and rookie Kyle Manzardo can be used to augment full stacks. Yesterday, the bullpen logged a heavy workload, but RHPs Chad Kuhl and Gus Varland are fresh arms, with Kuhl the most likely to see multiple innings, which would be a bonus for the Guardians.
Level up your MLB DFS picks with Stokastic’s Lineup Generator — just follow our comprehensive Lineup Generator Guide!
Main Slate Secondary Target: Milwaukee Brewers
RHP Hayden Birdsong has been wildly inconsistent, with five or more runs allowed in three of his last six starts. He also has three or more walks in five of these six outings, which have led to some adventurous innings. To his credit, Birdsong has challenged hitters and more than held his own with 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings, though he has also handed out 35 free passes in these 52 frames, along with 10 round-trippers.
In a fun twist, Birdsong has allowed seven of his 10 home runs and 11 of his 18 extra-base hits to right-handed batsmen, despite facing 96, as compared to 137 lefties. This is probably a “small sample size” wrinkle that will be smoothed out in time. However, it is also fun to note that Willy Adames has brutalized same-handed pitching this season, with a .369 wOBA, .242 ISO and 26 of his 29 home runs via right-handed pitchers.
Garrett Mitchell, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, Rhys Hoskins and Jake Bauers all have merit for stacks. Let personal preference and positional need be your guide with this malleable group of mashers.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
RHP Jonathan Cannon is a target in the DFS world, as well as in the sports wagering market.
The Portfolio EV model has the 24-year-old hurler for around 3.1 strikeouts tonight, which is below the 3.5 strikeouts being offered across various sportsbooks.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Fliff, where it is available at -130 odds.
Portfolio EV shows this wager has -137 “true odds,” and that works out to a reasonable 2.2% expected ROI.
We can see that Pinnacle has a punitive -179 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 10% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Cannon has tallied four, three, four, four, four, five, two and one strikeouts in his last eight outings. This wager is likely to come down to the wire, but with the Guardians having a 19.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, above average power and an 8.3% walk rate, they have a good chance of chasing Cannon off the mound before he gets his fourth whiff.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
