Wednesday marks the middle of the work week with a smooth seven-game featured slate that has a 7:07 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. In addition to exploring today’s MLB DFS projections, we’ll use Stokastic’s tools to learn how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers and create optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal on the featured slate as the arms to build around. Once more, the Coors Field Extravaganza will be key for MLB DFS picks, with potential pivots being the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Dodgers.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 7
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Tarik Skubal (DET at SEA)
Tigers at Mariners – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$10,100 at DraftKings
$11,100 at FanDuel
$58 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool has been waiting to recommend LHP Tarik Skubal, who has not been on many featured slates over the last month. The 27-year-old has a slight lead over the American League peloton in the Cy Young Award odds market.
Depending on the category and the advanced or standard statistic, Skubal is just above or just below last year’s breakout campaign. The southpaw leads the league with a 2.57 ERA, is second with an 0.95 WHIP and seventh with 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings. It is the latter category that matters the most for DFS gamers since strikeouts are the currency of the realm. Despite the additions of 39-year-old Justin Turner and toolsy youngster Randy Arozarena, the projected Seattle lineup still has a 26.4% strikeout rate against lefties this season.
Even with a Coors Field Extravaganza tonight and the lackadaisical DraftKings salary algorithm putting a five-figure tag on Skubal, the budding superstar is a priority building block in all formats.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Chris Sale (ATL vs. MIL)
Braves vs. Brewers – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
$10,300 at DraftKings
$11,300 at FanDuel
$58 at Yahoo
Over in the National League, it is LHP Chris Sale who is in front of a chase group that includes rookie phenom Paul Skenes for the senior circuit Cy Young Award.
In the seven seasons between 2012 and 2018, Sale was named an All-Star every year, finishing no worse than sixth in the Cy Young Award voting, though topping out with a second-place finish in 2017. Injuries limited him to only 11 combined appearances in the 2020, 2021 and 2022 seasons. Last year he was able to make 20 starts, and this season he has been sublime, making the All-Star Game again at 35 years old. Currently he leads the league with 13 wins and is behind only Skubal with a 2.71 ERA.
Milwaukee crushed Atlanta 10-0 yesterday, with outfielder Luke Williams taking the mound in the final frame. RHP Bryce Elder was the starter, but he has not been able to hold down a rotation spot, having spent four different stints with Triple-A Gwinnet and likely heading back there again.
Sale is a vastly different experience than Elder, which is a nice dichotomy in his favor. The projected lineup for the Brewers has only three hitters who have posted a .140 ISO or higher this season against southpaws. The team does a good job of limiting strikeouts against southpaws but, of course, is likely to wilt in front of an apex predator.
For cheaper options, look to RHP George Kirby in Seattle against the Motor City Kitties or Erick Fedde going for his new team in St. Louis against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Early Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Joey Estes (OAK vs. CHW)
Athletics vs. White Sox – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:37 p.m. ET
$7,200 at DraftKings
$7,500 at FanDuel
$34 at Yahoo
Shout out to the Chicago White Sox, who ended their losing streak last night at 21 games. There is still enough time left in the season for the team to craft a third 14-game losing streak, but this afternoon there should at least be some pep in their step.
RHP Joey Estes is a solid young talent, but he still is gaining experience. He came over from Atlanta as part of the Matt Olson trade, and tonight will be his 18th appearance in The Show. The 22-year-old has a decent fastball, but he needs to develop another pitch to keep good hitters from waiting for his best offering. Of course, that is not as much of an issue against the White Sox, who have put forth some of the worst offensive metrics of the last five seasons.
Luis Robert Jr. is the only terrifying hitter on the team for right-handed hurlers, with Andrew Benintendi, Gavin Sheets and Andrew Vaughn all performing at below-average levels. Five different hitters in the projected lineup have a 30% or higher strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. Even with Estes producing 6.87 per nine innings, he should be able to record at least one whiff per frame this afternoon.
For those feeling frisky, LHP Yusei Kikuchi has strikeout upside, though an uncomfortable matchup against in Texas against the Rangers. The difference between the haves and the have-nots of the Texas lineup is quite a chasm, which is why the team was almost no-hit last night by LHP Framber Valdez, escaping that fate with Corey Seager hitting a home run with two outs in the ninth inning.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Kansas City Royals
Royals vs. Red Sox – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Kutter Crawford
DK Top Stack %: 11.4%
FD Top Stack %: 11.3%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool would like the real Kutter Crawford to please stand up. The righty has a 3.81 ERA and 1.09 WHIP this season, but over his last three starts he has allowed 12 home runs in 15 innings. These three games were against the Yankees and on the road against the Dodgers and Rangers, but that is ridiculous.
Over the last two seasons, across 526 righty-lefty matchups, Crawford has ceded a .208 ISO. That has the likes of Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey and MJ Melendez looking good in the models. Hunter Renfroe has light-tower power against pitchers of either-handedness, and Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the best day-in, day-out DFS plays with Mike Trout and Mookie Betts on the injured reserve.
Yes, the Coors Field Extravaganza is still a priority, but do not lose sight of the rumbling Royals.
Looking to enhance your lineup study with the Post-Contest Simulator? Read Steve Buzzard’s tutorial to learn how to use simulations to fine-tune your MLB DFS picks!
Main Slate Secondary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers vs. Phillies – 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Tyler Phillips
DK Top Stack %: 4.6%
FD Top Stack %: 5.4%
The return of Freddie Freeman is a major boost to this lineup because it allowed the team to finally waive Cavan Biggio. Tonight the boys in blue are going against RHP Tyler Phillips, who was a 16th-round draft pick out of high school in 2015, taking almost a decade to make it to The Show.
If not for injuries to Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, Spencer Turnbull and phenom prospect Andrew Painter, it is unlikely that Phillips would have lucked into anything more than a late-season bullpen role. The Philly faithful were excited after Phillips shut out the Pirates in Pittsburgh for six innings and then the Cleveland Guardians in Citizens Bank Park for a complete game. Of course, the Regression Monster was waiting in Seattle last Friday, when the Mariners pasted eight runs and three home runs on Phillips in just 1.2 innings of action.
The bloom is off the rose, and we should look to the Dodgers as the key late-slate stack, along with being a differentiation stack for the featured tournaments. Freeman and, of course, Shohei Ohtani are the key targets, as are catcher Will Smith and outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. For the late slate, Jason Heyward and Kevin Kiermaier are differentiation options at the bottom of the order.
Philadelphia has a mostly rested bullpen, which is why the Coors Field Extravaganza and the Royals are priority plays on the featured slate. Though make no mistake, the Dodgers will be underrepresented in tournaments and could easily post a seven-spot or better tonight.
Stokastic’s Lineup Generator offers incredible value! Discover how to maximize its potential and elevate your MLB DFS picks with our in-depth Lineup Generator Guide.
Early Slate Primary Target: Minnesota Twins
Twins at Cubs – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Javier Assad
DK Top Stack %: 14.6%
FD Top Stack %: 15.4%
Yesterday the wind was blowing in from left-center in the 20 to 25 mph range, though the teams still combined for 10 runs. Today the forecast has things down by 10 mph, plus it will be warmer with the afternoon game. There still is a lower-than-usual run total, but as we saw yesterday, the wind is not going to affect every hit, particularly line drives.
RHP Javier Assad is a decent pitcher with an above-average ground ball rate of 43.6% across 245.2 career innings. He is averaging 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings, which is a personal best, but his 4.10 walk rate is abysmal and he does allow his share of power. Fellow righties have a .191 ISO against Assad this season, which bodes well for the oft-injured but resilient duo of Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton.
The Cubs have only one lefty in the bullpen in Drew Smyly, who did toss 15 pitches yesterday. That bodes well for Max Kepler, Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach, who tend to be pinch-hit risks against southpaws. Jose Miranda, catcher Ryan Jeffers and switch-hitter Willi Castro are the third wave of options who can also provide differentiation from other Twins stacks.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Tonight LHP Andrew Abbott is an interesting prospect in the sports wagering world. Currently, the under on his 4.5 strikeouts prop stands out on ESPN BET, PointsBet and Fanatics, where it is available at +120 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has +112 “true odds” for Abbott to stay under five strikeouts, which brings a solid 3.7% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Unibet and Fliff posting a +104 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 4% expected ROI.
Abbott does project for 4.6 strikeouts against the Marlins, though that is still giving this under a 47% probability of coming to fruition. Even though the Marlins have a watered-down lineup, they still have a respectable 21.3% strikeout rate against southpaws this season. Abbott has strikeout stuff, but he is usually content to take what opposing offenses give him in an effort to avoid extra-base hits rather than pushing his luck for whiffs.
Over his last 10 starts, Abbott has recorded eight, two, one, four, eight, two, two, 10 and three strikeouts. The highs are high, but the lows are far more frequent.
When lineups are announced, betting opportunities can disappear in minutes. With an OddsShopper Premium subscription, you’ll be ready to seize these fleeting chances before they’re gone.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Wednesday, Aug. 7
On the featured slate, Washington has rain in the forecast, with a good chance of there being an in-game delay. Before locking in your MLB DFS picks, be sure to visit the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time nears.
