MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 24
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
DraftKings has elected to go with the three games in the 9 o’clock hour for their featured tournaments. That means most gamers will be playing one or both of RHPs Jacob deGrom in West Sacramento against the Athletics and Corbin Burnes in Arizona against the visiting Tampa Bay Rays.
The roof will be open at Chase Field, and Burnes has scuffled to career-worst per-nine-inning rates of 7.17 strikeouts, 3.81 walks and 1.69 home runs. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2021 and winning the National League Cy Young Award with 12.61 strikeouts per nine innings, he has seen a drop every year since (10.83, 9.29, 8.38). Tampa Bay shapes lines up better against right-handed hurlers, so leave Burnes to tournaments only.
It is hard to get a read on deGrom, who has pitched only 219 innings since the 2020 pandemic-shortened season. He is coming off a strong outing that saw him with a pitch velocity approaching 98 mph, which is the highest this season. That enabled him to limit the Los Angeles Dodgers to just one run with three hits, a walk and seven strikeouts last Friday.
Texas has tried to give deGrom six days between starts in an effort to help him recover from so many injury-riddled seasons. The Athletics will be a good test to see if the last game was real or really lucky. The team has plenty of power up and down the lineup while also maintaining a respectable 21.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last 18 months.
The Mariners have a functional offense, so this will be a more difficult matchup than two against the worst team in the league. Seattle scores more runs on the road, but this iteration of the team has a 25.5% strikeout rate against southpaws over the last season and change.
Milwaukee will be led by RHP Tobias Myers, who has made three rehabilitation starts in the minors as he works back from an oblique issue. He was a pleasant surprise last season, being pushed into the rotation with the Brew Crew running out of starting pitchers. He held his own as a 25-year-old rookie, collecting a solid 8.28 strikeouts, 2.35 walks and 1.17 home runs per nine. His 3.00 ERA was a little lucky compared to a 4.22 xERA, 3.91 FIP and 3.97 xFIP, but most pitchers would do unspeakable things for those results.
LHP Cole Ragans will be the easiest click in a matchup against the Colorado Rockies. He is slated for Game 1 of the doubleheader, though that could always change. Ragans has a 30.3% combined strikeout rate against the last 916 batters he has faced, with a stellar .145 ISO and 8.4% walk rate. The Rockies projected lineup is pushing a 30% strikeout rate against southpaws since the beginning of last year. Currently, the strikeout prop for Ragans is set at 8.5, which is wicked confidence in his ability to mow down the Rockies.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Angels
Mlodzinski has a middling 20.6% strikeout rate, surviving his 41.1% hard-hit rate by inducing ground balls at an elevated 47.5% rate.
The 26-year-old has completed the fifth inning only once in his four starts, issuing a pair of free passes in each outing. Fly balls have been his undoing, leading to four or more earned runs in three of his four appearances.
Los Angles has a solid, though not spectacular lineup, which is a major improvement over last year. It has been surprising to see the lack of runs over the last fortnight, but some of that is just unlucky hit sequencing.
Mike Trout, Taylor Ward and Jorge Soler have the power to punish pitchers who make mistakes, so get those Angels in your outfield.
Logan O’Hoppe is a terrific catching option on DraftKings and Yahoo, while young Kyren Paris is an intriguing middle-infield option.
This is a matchup where we can also consider Jo Adell, who is typically a human wind machine with his 30%-plus strikeout rate. He does profile well against Mlodzinski, so he should be good for an extra-base hit if he can get his bat on the ball.
Early Slate Contrarian Target: Pittsburgh Pirates
Marquez is only 30 years old, so there is still time for him to improve his way into a solid rotation member, but he is unlikely to return to the promising trajectory of his mid-20s. His velocity is right in line with what it was prior to his elbow issues, though he was already showing signs of declining strikeout ability during the 2020 season. Marquez has had a tough set of matchups to being the season, blanking the Phillies in Philadelphia in his debut then struggling against the Athletics in Coors Field and the pre-injury riddled Padres in San Diego. He only managed two outs last Wednesday in Los Angeles against the Dodgers, who put up seven runs on six hits, one walk and a pair of round-trippers.
Kansas City stacks should be crafted around superstar Bobby Witt Jr., with Vinnie Pasquantino and veteran Salvador Perez the perfect wingmen. Michael Massey and Drew Waters provide some pop against right-handed hurlers, and they are the perfect differentiators from other Kansas City stacks, who are likely to put in leadoff man Jonathan India and aging slugger Hunter Renfroe.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take Garrett Crochet under 7.5 strikeouts this afternoon, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Crochet is a strikeout artist; however, he is projecting for just over seven this afternoon against Seattle. If he stays healthy, he is a favorite to compete for the strikeout crown, but Boston would also like him to pitch deeper into games rather than trying to get everyone out at the plate. In his five starts, he had seven, 11, five, eight and four whiffs, so getting to eight is actually a daunting and impressive task.
