MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 4
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
In two of his last nine starts, the elder statesman has allowed eight and seven runs. In the other seven games, he has allowed a scant eight earned runs. Tonight he gets the dreamy matchup against the Rockies, who are dreadful on the road (81wRC+, 29th) and against right-handed pitching (89 wRC+ 28th).
The key with Morton’s longevity in the league is his effective combination of 45%-to-47% groundball rate and a 24%-plus strikeout rate. It may not be pretty at times, but it is dependable.
Last year, Kirby led the league with a miniscule 0.9 walks per nine innings and with 9.05 strikeouts per walk. This season he is still solid, with 1.2 walks per nine and 7.29 strikeouts for each walk. The 26-year-old has been a borderline top-30 pitcher, with his 3.63 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 18 quality starts and solid 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings ratio.
Kirby does a good job of limiting power to same-handed hurlers, with a .131 ISO across his last 762 matchups, so if he can avoid mistake pitches to Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday and Seth Brown, he should bin in the mix for a quality start and half a dozen strikeouts. Even if he cedes a couple of solo shots, it would not be the end of the world.
The FanDuel salary algorithm was very aggressive with Kirby, which in turn has him projecting to be employed on only 2.5% of all tournament rosters. RHP Tyler Megill would be the discount dandy on the blue site, but he is “overleveraged” by 4.6%, comparing his popularity (10.5%) to his probability of being a the top scoring pitcher (5.8%)..
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves
In his last start, RHP Bradley Blalock brought Coors Field to Miami, allowing the Marlins to plate seven runners, with nine hits, one walks and one home run. Most concerning were the paltry three strikeouts, which leaves the 23-year-old with only 14 through his first 21.2 innings in The Show. Blalock actually came over to the Rockies in a deal with the Brewers, as part of the RHP Nick Mears trade.
The Georgia native was selected in the 32nd round of the 2019 MLB Draft by the Boston Red Sox. The cancellation of the 2020 MiLB season and Tommy John surgery in 2022 derailed his progress. He is barely a top-25 prospect for Colorado and likely to end up as a multi-inning reliever.
In his limited action, he has not done much of anything in a positive manner, other than boost the production of opposing batters with his 50.6% hard hit rate. Marcell Ozuna is all but preordained to hit a home run tonight, with Matt Olson, Jorge Soler and Travis d’Arnaud all profiling well. Michael Harris II has been scuffling since returning to action, so skipping him in favor of Jarred Kelenic is one way to find differentiation from others attacking tournaments with Atlanta.
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Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
In the preceding start to this pair of outings, Canning was crushed for seven earned runs by Atlanta, without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies.
The Dodgers are teeming with enough offensive options that the team actually released Jason Heyward, who appeared in 63 games this season. The 34-year-old was quickly scooped up by the Astros, who apparently have not been truthful about the severity of the leg injury to Kyle Tucker.
Back to the boys in blue, it is easy to see how they top the slate with a higher probability of leading the slate in fantasy points, than the next two lineups combined. Canning has allowed a combined .187 ISO over the last two seasons, with lefties being his worst matchup this year, but same-handed batsmen held sway last seasons.
Shohei Ohtani is basically doing the impossible, with a 50/50 season and Freddie Freeman has four home runs in his last six games, seemingly moving beyond the hairline fracture in his right-middle-finger. Mookie Betts is rattling off hits and RBI like it is his job, which of course it is, but his heater would be the leading story on any team other than one featuring Ohtani.
Teoscar Hernandez has the luxury of being the cleanup hitter behind this trio of current and former MVPs, and he is having a productive year as well. Since it is a righty on the mound, Max Muncy and Gavin Lux are popping in the models, along with catcher Will Smith. Switch-hitter Tommy Edman is still shaking off the rust from the left-side of the plate, though he and Miguel Rojas are solid differentiation options from the bottom of the lineup, providing discounted access to this matchup.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
RHP Griffin Canning is someone to attack in the DFS world as all as the sports wagering market.
The OddsShopper model has the 28-year-old hurler for around 3.9 strikeouts tonight, which is below the 4.5 strikeouts being offered across various sportsbooks.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on FanDuel where it is available at -130 odds.
OddsShopper’s Portfolio EV shows this wager has -148 “true odds” for the mediocre starter to fall short of five strikeouts, and that works out to a 5.5% expected ROI.
We can see that Fliff has a ridiculous -190 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 9% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
In his last nine appearances, Canning has recorded four, six, three, zero, eight, six, six, three and three strikeouts. Those truly display a high-level of variance, particularly the eight and zero whiff games next to each other.
With new wagers constantly appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having an Portfolio EV subscription is crucial to capitalize on every opportunity.
