Monday brings an eight-game featured slate, with the action getting underway at 6:40 p.m. on DraftKings and FanDuel, while Yahoo has elected to go with a six-game slate locking at 7:07 p.m. ET. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Zack Wheeler and MacKenzie Gore as the key arms, while the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Francisco Giants are the teams to stack, along with the Coors Field Extravaganza.
Still trying to find your MLB DFS edge? Luckily Stokastic has a new tool to help you get there — the MLB Sims Tool! With it, you can simulate any MLB DFS contest you are playing on a given night and see which lineups are the likeliest to be profitable. And if you need a head start on strategy, we’ve broken down how to use the MLB Sims Tool to create the best DFS lineups each night.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 3
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Zack Wheeler (MIL vs. PHI)
Phillies vs. Brewers – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
$10,700 at DraftKings
$10,600 at FanDuel
N/A at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitcher’s Tool understands that recommending RHP Zack Wheeler feels like cheating, but it is hard to overlook the odds-on favorite for the National League Cy Young Award as he takes on Milwaukee in his home park. The Brewers are on a five-game winning streak while winning six of seven against the two Chicago franchises.
The Brew Crew has tallied the second-most runs in the league this season, so they are clearly not a creampuff matchup, but they offer up their fair share of strikeouts. It will be interesting to see how many gamers are interested in Wheeler at his salary and with this semi-daunting matchup. Wheeler projects for a tick over seven strikeouts while allowing around two runs. This season, the freshly minted 34-year-old has nine quality starts, which is the second most in the league, after finishing third in that category last year.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Matt Waldron (SD at LAA)
Padres at Angels – 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
$7,400 at DraftKings
$7,900 at FanDuel
$37 at Yahoo
The last four games have been pristine for RHP Matt Waldron as he continues to be the only pitcher in the game who regularly utilizes a knuckleball. During this stretch, the 27-year-old has relied on his unique pitch 42.3% of the time. It comes across the plate around 10 to 15 mph slower than his fastball, which sits just above 90 mph.
Across 23 innings in this stretch, Waldron has a 1.96 ERA and 1.93 FIP, and he has held opposing hitters to a .224/.283/.329 triple slash line while striking out an impressive 31. In this timeframe, the unicorn pitcher has allowed one home run and six total extra-base hits, along with six walks. He will be quite the dichotomy for Los Angeles, who faced fast-baller Luis Castillo in Seattle yesterday afternoon.
Losing Mike Trout, Brandon Drury and Anthony Rendon, plus Shohei Ohtani now playing for the other Los Angeles team, has created some issues. The Halos are not a bad lineup, but they lack any fierce bats that would be able to generate rallies by themselves.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP MacKenzie Gore (WSH vs. NYM)
Nationals vs. Mets – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
$9,000 at DraftKings
$9,800 at FanDuel
N/A at Yahoo
Only once this season has LHP MacKenzie Gore allowed more than three earned runs, and he has ceded two or fewer in his last seven appearances. The 25-year-old southpaw was the centerpiece of the Juan Soto trade, and he is helping Washington fans forget the official retirement of Stephen Strasburg. How crazy is it that he logged just 31.1 innings, across eight starts in the three seasons after the 2019 World Series victory, for which he won the MVP?
New York has been a mess this season, which is no shock since they are affectionately known as the #LOLMets. The team is in the midst of a 3-10 stretch, having scored three or fewer runs in seven of matchups during this stretch. This season, the team has been dreadful against right-handed pitching, particularly the latter half of the projected lineup. Heck, Brent Baty has been banished to the minors, and fellow lefty Jeff McNeil was demoted to the eight-hole on Sunday. Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo can only do so much, while counting on production from DJ Stewart, the ancient J.D. Martinez and Mark Vientos — who really should be in a platoon with Baty — is pure folly. Ladies and Gentlemen, the New York Metropolitans!
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Milwaukee Brewers
Phillies vs. Brewers – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Bryse Wilson
DK Top Stack %: 8.4%
FD Top Stack %: 9.2%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has the Coors Field Extravaganza with a 27.5% chance of providing the highest-scoring stack on FanDuel and a 26.6% likelihood of doing the same on DraftKings. The game total is pushing through 11 runs, and temperatures will be in the low-80s with a slight chance of late-evening showers.
Over his seven seasons in The Show, RHP Bryse Wilson has had more success as a reliever than as a starter. While his 3.19 ERA looks good, his 4.75 xERA, 5.00 FIP, 86.3% strand rate, 3.56 walks and 1.50 home runs per nine innings indicate trouble is brewing just under the surface. The 26-year-old has allowed a home run in each of his last four starts, with a 4.50 ERA, 6.20 FIP and just 12 strikeouts across these 18 innings. Most concerning is that he is issuing a free pass every other inning. Yikes!
The Phillies lost at home last night to the St. Louis Cardinals, with Nolan Gorman knocking in the winning run in the 10th inning of a 5-4 affair. Fortunately, the team does not have to travel, so there should be no ill effects for tonight’s action. Even without Trea Turner, Philadelphia leads the league in runs scored, as Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos and Whit Merrifield make for a strong foundation and a deeeeeeeep lineup. Kody Clemens was a late scratch yesterday, but if he is in the lineup today, look to him as a discount dandy.
For a limited time only, you can use promo code EMACLGMLB to get five days of access to our industry-leading MLB Lineup Generator for only $1 by clicking here!
Late Slate Target: San Francisco Giants
Giants at Diamondbacks – 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Ryne Nelson
DK Top Stack %: 7.2%
FD Top Stack %: 7.8%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the park upgrade for San Francisco, even with the Chase Field roof scheduled to be closed for this three-game series. RHP Ryne Nelson has allowed just four earned runs in his last two starts, spanning 11 innings, but with six walks and only eight strikeouts, he was more lucky than good.
To his credit, even though he has a worse ERA at 6.02 than last year’s 5.31, Nelson has improved his xERA by nearly half a run while lowering his xFIP by almost a full run. His strikeouts are up slightly to 6.92 per nine innings, plus there has been an improvement in his ground ball rate (44.8%). That ends the good news for Nelson, who still remains someone worthy of targeting with stacks more often than not.
Look to the lefties first, with Mike Yastrzemski and switch-hitting catcher Patrick Bailey as priority plays. Thairo Estrada, Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler all have above-average power against fellow righties, and Nelson has been saddled with a .210 ISO in his last 418 same-handed matchups. Three-man stacks are the way to go with the Giants, allowing for differentiation on the late slate while also giving ample room on rosters for a separate full stack on the featured slate.
If you need some more tips on how to use the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup study process, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on how to maximize your lessons learned from the Sims! Check it out HERE.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Tonight, Brenton Doyle is popping in the OddsShopper model for the over on his 0.5 stole base prop. The best line is the +580 currently available at FanDuel.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +447 “true odds,” so the +580 line brings a tremendous 24.4% expected ROI. We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with shops like PointsBet, Fanatics and Fliff down at +320, which is nearly a -23% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Keep in mind that stolen bases are fickle, and while they are increasing across the league, it is nowhere near the same rate that was in the 80s and 90s. In his last 20 games, Doyle has 10 stolen bases and one caught stealing. Cincinnati allows around 0.73 stolen bases per game, though RHP Andrew Abbott does not see many baserunners try for second base against him. This season he has allowed three steals on his watch, with two runners caught in 11 games. He had a similar prevention rate last year. That is why this particular wager stands out at the crazy +580 on FanDuel, and this is more of a market-based approach than a strong target. There is just an 18% probability that Doyle steals a base tonight, but if he does, his backers will be handsomely rewarded.
For a limited time only, you can use promo code MLBSIMSWEEK to access one week of our industry-leading MLB Sims Max, Sims Data or Data packages for 40% off by clicking here!
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Monday, June 3
There is a little precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic, with both Philadelphia and Washington being affected, though likely nothing more than a delay. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 5:45 p.m. ET brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.
