Friday wraps up the work week with a 12-game featured slate, locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is reaching forward to include the three earlier games, with a first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. Before we explore our MLB DFS picks, we’ll utilize Stokastic’s tools to figure out how to create MLB DFS stacks, identify the top pitchers and build optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to George Kirby and Freddy Peralta as the anchors for the pitching position, with the Royals and Orioles leading the way on offense.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 26
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP George Kirby (SEA at CHW)
Mariners at. White Sox – 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$9,600 at DraftKings
$10,500 at FanDuel
$49 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool likes the matchup for RHP George Kirby against the hapless Chicago White Sox. Of course, getting the victory bonus could be a little tricky as the Mariners are without Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford, making these offenses resemble the Spiderman pointing meme.
Coming up with new and inventive ways to describe just how bad the White Sox have been this season is getting harder and harder. How about today we just let their run totals do the work? Since returning from the All-Star Break, the ChiSox have scored one, one, one, three, two, two and one runs. Extending this back to the final four games before the summer exhibition match, they plated four, two, one and two runners, suffering the added ignominy of losing all 11 games. In their last win, Chicago bested Minnesota 3-1, managing to defeat RHP Bailey Ober, who had a quality start and six strikeouts.
For the second consecutive season, Kirby is leading the league with 0.9 walks per nine innings while also sitting at the top of the strikeouts per walk category with a wicked 9.38, which is even better than his apex 9.05 ratio from last season. There is no discount for Kirby, but he does have a little wiggle room for profit in addition to his relative safety if his teammates can secure the win for him. While Your Ol’ Pal is a little trepidatious in that regard, the -160 moneyline odds are in his favor.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL vs. MIA)
Brewers vs. Marlins – 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$9,800 at DraftKings
$9,900 at FanDuel
$50 at Yahoo
The second slot is essentially a coinflip between RHPs Freddy Peralta facing the Marlins and Sonny Gray getting the Nationals, who were just no-hit yesterday by Dylan Cease. The salary is basically neutral, with Peralta more likely to garner the win bonus against Miami and Gray getting an offense that is coming off a rough three-game series against San Diego.
Setting aside the no-hitter — because let’s face it, the Marlins could just as easily suffer the same fate today — Washington has been a mess on offense this season. The team came out of the break strong with 18 runs in a three-game sweep against Cincinnati, only to score zero, three and zero runs against San Diego.
These two squads have the fewest home runs in the league, and their 171 combined round-trippers are barely ahead of the 160 by the Baltimore Orioles. The teams are also in the bottom 4 for total bases. The difference is strikeouts, which has the Marlins with a 25.2% rate since June 1, while Washington has a 19.0% rate in the same timeframe. The figures are the fourth worst and fourth best, respectively. Additionally, in this same stretch, Miami has a league-low 3.3 runs per game, with the Nationals at 4.3 runs per game.
Fastball Freddy will be more popular than Gray on FanDuel, where he has a $900 discount (10%), though he has a $500 premium (7%) on DraftKings. The duo is separated by a dollar on Yahoo. For cash games (H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.), Peralta has the nod. When it comes to tournaments, going with whichever hurler projects to be the least popular would be a path towards differentiation in the large-field tournaments.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Kyle Harrison (SF vs. COL)
Giants vs. Rockies – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:15 p.m. ET
$6,900 at DraftKings
$7,900 at FanDuel
$36 at Yahoo
In the nightcap, LHP Kyle Harrison is a strong play on DraftKings for all slates, he is a solid late-slate option on FanDuel and a neutral option across the board as an SP2 on Yahoo’s three slates. Tonight will be only the 25th career start in The Show for the 22-year-old southpaw.
Harrison is the top-prospect in the San Francisco system, receiving seven starts last year over the final six weeks of the season. He profiles well with a range of 8.9 to 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings when looking at the season-long models (Steamer, ZiPs, The Bat), which indicates he likely has some upside on his 7.8 per-nine rate this season.
There is no doubt that the Rockies are dreadful away from Coors Field and against right-handed pitching home or away, but they have at least been league average from a scoring efficiency perspective against lefties, with a 104 wRC+ this season from their current active roster. On the flipside, Colorado strikes out nearly a quarter of the time against southpaws. It is going to be a cool 55 degrees for this 7 o’clock local start, which also bodes well for Harrison keeping the Rox in check.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Want guidance on enhancing your lineup analysis with the Post-Contest Simulator, refer to Steve Buzzard’s tutorial on how to use simulations to improve lineup study for your MLB DFS picks!
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Orioles vs. Padres – 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Adam Mazur
DK Top Stack %: 7.3%
FD Top Stack %: 7.4%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool has been waiting for the perfect time to push the chips in with Baltimore, and tonight looks like that moment. The Masses will be all over this matchup as well, but sometimes it is OK to follow the crowd.
Game-time temperatures will be in the mid-80s with slightly elevated humidity. That should have Camden Yards playing closer to the offense-friendly venue it was prior to the outfield renovations of a couple years ago. RHP Adam Mazur has been recalled from Triple-A El Paso, where he was sent after his last dreadful start in The Show. Across 31 big league innings, the 23-year-old has allowed 27 runs, 16 extra-base hits, 19 walks and five home runs, with only 21 strikeouts. In his four Triple-A starts, he has a 7.83 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 23 innings.
Mazur is the seventh-ranked prospect in the San Diego system, but it is clear he is a “not ready for primetime player.” Control has been the main culprit, but at 6-foot-2 and 180 pounds, the former second-round selection in the 2022 MLB Draft may be better suited as a reliever. Speaking of relievers, the Padres have not used anyone more than once since Sunday, so everyone should be particularly fresh after the All-Star Break and, of course, Cease’s no-hitter yesterday.
Jorge Mateo (elbow) hit the injured reserve, which has led to Connor Norby rejoining the parent club. The rookie is yet another solid hitting prospect for Baltimore, with a little pop, a little speed and a lot of salary savings. If he is in the lineup, it will be near the bottom, but with all of the booming bats around him, he should see some favorable pitches when he is at the plate.
Top priorities are Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander and Jordan Westburg. Ryan O’Hearn is a pinch-hit risk with three rested lefties in the San Diego bullpen, but one swing of the bat could also pay off his salary. Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle were the heart of the order not so long ago, and both profile well against Mazur.
Switch-hitting catcher Adley Rutschman has been slumping with only three extra-base hits in July while also struggling from the left side of the plate all season. Skipping over him would quickly create differentiation from half of all Baltimore stacks. Depending on your DFS site of choice, Colton Cowser may be available as a discount dandy.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Kansas City Royals
Royals vs. Cubs – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Kyle Hendricks
DK Top Stack %: 6.6%
FD Top Stack %: 7.1%
“I’m going to Kansas City, Kansas City here I come” — Fats Domino: Such a great song. Tonight DFS gamers should be looking to get a pretty little stack of Royals in a great matchup against RHP Kyle Hendricks. The 34-year-old has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen this season.
The Cubs picked up a $16.5 million option in the fourth and final year of Hendricks’ current contract, which, along with his clubhouse presence and this being another lost season, is keeping him from being designated for assignment. The Cubs are 5.5 games and five teams behind the final National League Wild Card slot and likely to be moving anything not nailed down for future prospects, as the trade deadline is three days away.
Pick a stat, any stat, and Hendricks is likely posting a career low. This includes his 6.69 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 1.8 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings, 61.7% strand rate, .311 batting average on balls in play, 5.03 xERA and 5.43 FIP. Finally, his 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings are the second fewest of his career, only ahead of his 6.1 per nine rate last year. However, if we look at this last 11 appearances, spanning 44.2 innings, that has slid all the way down to 5.4 per nine.
Bobby Witt Jr. is turning into a superstar, and veteran Salvador Perez is clearly enjoying himself with a terrific supporting cast on offense. Hunter Renfroe, Michael Massey and Vinnie Pasquantino all profile well against Hendricks, and we should see at least one, if not two, home runs from this crew tonight against the venerable veteran.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Angels
Angels vs. Athletics – 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Paul Blackburn
DK Top Stack %: 4.2%
FD Top Stack %: 4.7%
The late slate is leading us towards the Angels for the second consecutive day, and it does not feel good. Gamers are likely to focus more on the Diamondbacks at home against RHP Luis L. Ortiz with a 4.9 implied run total, but Ortiz has held his own this season, allowing just two earned runs in his first four starts since joining the rotation.
San Francisco is also likely to get a look against LHP Kyle Freeland, but it is important to note that the veteran southpaw has a 1.95 ERA, 3.36 FIP and 3.90 xFIP in his five starts since missing two months with a strained elbow. The cool weather and ballpark should help him at least survive against the Giants tonight, which lands us back with Los Angeles.
It has been well over two months since we last saw RHP Paul Blackburn, who landed on the injured list with a stress fracture in his right foot. His last outing saw him give up seven runs in Seattle, and in his final four appearances prior to the injury, he allowed 18 runs in 21 innings. The 30-year-old veteran had three rehabilitation outings, getting up to 49 pitches in his last one but also ceding seven runs in 2.2 innings to Triple-A Salt Lake, which is the top minor league affiliate of the Halos.
Anaheim is in the bottom third or worse when it comes to most standard and advanced offensive metrics, so this is a late-slate target only. Willie Calhoun, Logan O’Hoppe, Taylor Ward and Luis Rengifo are the four worthwhile hitters to target. Pretty much everyone else is a longshot lottery ticket at best, even in a batting practice situation. This is best exemplified with Anthony Rendon, who has had as sordid an injury history over the last five seasons as Blackburn. Rendon has only five extra-base hits this season in 123 at-bats, all doubles. Over the last two years, he has 271 at-bats with 11 doubles.
The Lineup Generator at Stokastic provides outstanding value! Learn how to maximize its potential to boost your MLB DFS picks alongside our other MLB DFS tools by exploring our Lineup Generator Guide!
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Tonight RHP Kyle Hendricks looks like someone to target with Kansas City stacks in the DFS world and, even better, the sports wagering market.
Currently, the under on his 2.5 strikeouts stands out on Caesars, where it is available at +118 odds.
OddsShopper shows this wager has +114 “true odds” for Hendricks to stay under three strikeouts, which brings a 1.9% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by ESPN BET all the way down at a -110 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 9% expected ROI.
This is an excellent demonstration of how OddsShopper identifies opportunities by using a market-based approach, pitting the books against each other. We can see that BetRivers and Unibet have elected to set the line at 3.5 strikeouts, with HEAVY -315 juice on the under. Additionally, sharp book Pinnacle rarely gives any edge to bettors, and the line there is currently +123, more favorable than Caesars.
Hendricks does project for 3.2 strikeouts, which is over the three needed for the under to lose but also not accounting for variable outcomes. The 47% probability that the erstwhile ace has two or fewer strikeouts has a 47% likelihood of coming to fruition, and that is why we need that plus money from Caesars.
In his last four outings, Hendricks has recorded two, three, one, three and four strikeouts, with two or fewer in eight of his 18 (44%) appearances. The hope is that Kansas City is hitting the ball on the screws and sending Hendricks to the shower prior to that third strikeout.
When lineups are announced, betting opportunities can appear and disappear within minutes. Having an OddsShopper Premium subscription is crucial to making sure you are grabbing these fleeting chances.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Friday, July 26
Friday’s precipitation risk is essentially nil, though before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, check the top MLB Weather Report page for updates as the first pitch approaches.
Tune in to the Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show today at 6 p.m. ET to lock in your MLB DFS picks — brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. Join Underdog today with our link, and you will have your first deposit matched by as much as $250!
