Friday wraps up the work week with an 11-game featured slate locking at 7:07 p.m. ET FanDuel and a 12-gamer on DraftKings. Yahoo is going with the two earlier games, beginning at 6:45 p.m. ET for a 14-game thriller. Today we’ll explore the MLB DFS projections and utilize Stokastic’s tools to learn how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify the top pitchers and build optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Jack Flaherty and Jameson Taillon as key aces, while the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Dodgers provide alternatives to the Coors Field Extravaganza for today’s featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 9
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP: Jack Flaherty (LAD vs. PIT)
Dodgers vs. Pirates – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
$10,500 at DraftKings
$11,000 at FanDuel
$54 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Jack Flaherty as the most desirable ace on Friday’s slate. He performed well in his Dodgers debut, with six shutout innings in Oakland. On the season, the 28-year-old ace has a 2.80 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and, most importantly for DFS purposes, a career-high 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
Things are looking up for Los Angeles, with LHP Clayton Kershaw back in action, RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto throwing a 30-pitch bullpen session Tuesday and RHP Walker Buehler getting close to wrapping up his rehabilitation process. Former MVP Mookie Betts, infield bopper Max Muncy and recent trade acquisition Tommy Edman are all getting closer to returning to action as well.
Pittsburgh did pick up Bryan De La Cruz and Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the trade market, and Rowdy Tellez and Oneil Cruz are mostly healthy, giving the Pirates close to a full lineup. However, the team lacks a true superstar bat and is counting on its above-average players to perform like All-Stars down the stretch. The Bucs are far from pushovers, but this is still a good matchup for Flaherty, even at his lofty salary.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Jameson Taillon (CHC at CHW)
Cubs at White Sox – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$8,200 at DraftKings
$9,400 at FanDuel
$38 at Yahoo
Tonight it is veteran RHP Jameson Taillon who has the cherry matchup against the Chicago White Sox. While the Southsiders ended their 21-game losing streak on Tuesday, they are poised to start another one tonight after a loss in Oakland yesterday.
With Taillon now in his age-32 season, we know what we are getting from him. He was a forever prospect at the start of his career and is a good but not great pitcher who never really broke through to the upper echelon of his position. This season he has slipped to a career-low 6.99 strikeouts per nine innings, though he still does a decent job of limiting walks and extra-base hits. That should be enough to be positioned for a win against the dreadful ChiSox. While LHP Garrett Crochet is on the mound for the home team, he is on a pitch count, which means around half the game will be against the epically awful White Sox bullpen. If Taillon can close out the sixth inning, he should be in line for a quality start and in position for a victory.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Robbie Ray (SF vs DET)
Giants vs. Tigers – 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:15 p.m. ET
$8,600 at DraftKings
$9,500 at FanDuel
$45 at Yahoo
This section was created for the likes of LHP Robbie Ray. The highs are high with the strikeout artist, and the lows, well, they could be negative fantasy points. Injuries kept Ray out for the first half of the season, but in his three starts, he has 21 strikeouts in just 14.1 innings. He also has allowed five home runs, but at least those were his only extra-base hits.
The projected lineup for Detroit has around 600 combined plate appearances this season against lefties, with a 25% strikeout rate and nominal power. Anyone can run into one against Ray, but when it comes to matchups that play to his strengths, this is one of the better ones in the league. Last night Matt Vierling left the game early with back spasms; if he is out tonight, that takes one of the three best bats out of the lineup.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Kansas City Royals
Phillies at Diamondbacks – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Miles Mikolas
DK Top Stack %: 3.6%
FD Top Stack %: 3.3%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool encourages everyone to have some Atlanta exposure tonight, with the team checking in at nearly a 15% probability of being the highest-scoring offense on the slate. The Rockies are in the top 5 with just over a 5% likelihood of those honors landing with them.
While the Coors Field Extravaganza has just over a 20% probability of producing the highest-scoring team on the slate, the Rangers-Yankees game being postponed has opened up the rest of the field.
This has been a rough season for RHP Miles Mikolas, who has been saddled with a 5.12 ERA, though his 4.47 xERA, 4.24 FIP and 4.24 xFIP are still reasonable. The ground balls are down from three seasons ago, and the 6.03 strikeouts per nine innings are a career low. Mikolas is a gamer who closes out the sixth inning more often than not, but he allows a lot of contact, and if that happens when the bases are juiced, crooked numbers are in play.
Kansas City continues to have a potent lineup when everyone is heathy. Michael Massey has not been seeing his name locked into the leadoff slot when a right-handed pitcher is starting, but the expectation is that he will be back on top tonight. Though he does not have anywhere near the speed of Maikel Garcia, he has better power and contact numbers with the platoon advantage. Bobby Witt Jr. is a DFS goldmine, while veterans Salvador Perez and Hunter Renfroe are still capable of extra-base hits in bunches against pitchers of either handedness.
Vinnie Pasquantino is starting to make good on his home run profile, while MJ Melendez at least generates power whenever he can get the bat on the ball. That is a fierce top six, along with Garcia as a differentiation play if he is within a spot or two of the others for added synergy.
Looking to enhance your lineup analysis with the Post-Contest Simulator? Read Steve Buzzard’s tutorial to learn how to use simulations to fine-tune your MLB DFS picks!
Main Slate Secondary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers vs. Pirates – 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Mitch Keller
DK Top Stack %: 3.4%
FD Top Stack %: 3.6%
Make no mistake, RHP Mitch Keller is a good pitcher; however, lefties are his kryptonite. In his last 710 opposite-handed matchups, he has ceded a .198 ISO. Though his strikeout rate of 26.5% is excellent, that is still a tradeoff that is more advantageous to hitters.
Depending on how you feel about RHPs Tanner Hauk or Carson Speirs, the top of the Dodgers order is desirable on the featured slate since it is consolidated production. Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani are, of course, the lefties to target, with righty Teoscar Hernandez lining up right next to them in the batting order.
For the late slate, branching out to catcher Will Smith, along with lefties Gavin Lux and Jason Heyward, is a savvy strategy. Betts is unlikely to return until later next week, but he should be back in the lineup before too long.
Unlock the full potential of Stokastic’s Lineup Generator and elevate your MLB DFS picks with our in-depth Lineup Generator Guide!
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Tonight RHP Grant Holmes is in Coors Field, which is always an adventure — particularly for a first-timer.
Currently, the under on his 4.5 strikeouts prop stands out on FanDuel, where it is available at +110 odds on BetMGM.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has +105 “true odds” for Woo to stay under six strikeouts, which brings a 2.6% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by BetRivers posting a -110 line, and that equates to a NEGATIVE 7% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Holmes projects for 4.2 strikeouts tonight, which is under the five needed for this wager to lose, but we can see that there is still only a 49% likelihood of the under coming through for this wager. That means getting the plus money is key, and currently the most widely available book with that offering is BetMGM.
In his three starts, Holmes has four, eight and five strikeouts while outpitching his minor league expectations. The projected Colorado lineup has a 26.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, which is well above average. The key for this wager will be for hitters like Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant and Ryan McMahon to be disciplined enough to coax Holmes into using up extra pitches and, of course, for him to get lit up at altitude and sent to the dugout early.
Once lineups are announced, betting opportunities can disappear in moments. Stay ahead with an OddsShopper Premium subscription and seize these fleeting chances before they vanish.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Friday, Aug. 9
On the featured slate, the game in New York has been postponed, while Boston is looking at a potential delay, with a postponement not out of the question. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, be sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time nears.
