Thursday keeps things rolling with a six-game featured slate and a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Joe Ryan and Luis Castillo as key arms, while the New York Mets lead the way as the top projected offense, with the Texas Rangers looking good as a contrarian club.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 13
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Joe Ryan (MIN vs. OAK)
Twins vs. Athletics – 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
$9,500 at DraftKings
$10,800 at FanDuel
$53 at Yahoo
This has been a strong season for RHP Joe Ryan, who has shaken off his mediocre results of last year. The 28-year-old is performing even better than he did in his 2022 breakout campaign, landing in the top 15 with his 85 strikeouts and 0.970 WHIP, which has helped him craft a career-best 3.30 ERA.
Ryan has allowed four runs twice and five runs once, with the latter blemish on his record occurring two outings ago in Houston, when he allowed four home runs. In seven of his 13 starts, the Minnesota ace has allowed two or fewer runs while also racking up nine quality starts.
Oakland continues to be a team we can pick on, with the third-fewest runs in the league and the second-most strikeouts. The projected lineup for the A’s has a solid .155 ISO, but they are above league average with a 24.3% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers since the beginning of last year. The team is on a five-game slide and has lost three of the last 12 games, with only one tilt resulting in more than four runs.
JJ Bleday, Brent Rooker and catcher Shea Langeliers are the only hitters worth noting, and none of the trio should be particularly worrisome for Ryan.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Luis Castillo (SEA vs. CHW)
Mariners vs. White Sox – 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$8,500 at DraftKings
$9,900 at FanDuel
$45 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool would like to confirm that one, well, it is indeed the loneliest number. It is also representative of the White Sox score as they dropped a third consecutive game in Seattle, this time losing 2-1 in extra innings.
The ChiSox are 3-22 in their last 25 games, scoring more than four runs only seven times while averaging 3.32 per game. On a fun note, this qualifies as a heater since the White Sox are averaging only 3.05 runs per game, which is the most pathetic number in the league. The team is also last in total bases, with the only silver lining being that there are nine teams with more strikeouts.
RHP Luis Castillo continues chugging along with metronomic consistency, recording a sub-3.40 ERA for a sixth straight season. Though he has only a 5-7 record in his 14 starts, that is more of an indictment on the Seattle offense. The 31-year-old ace has nine quality starts, allowing more than two runs only once in his last 11 appearances. Even though that was in his last game, it was in Kansas City, which had favorable hitting weather that day.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Garrett Crochet (CHW at SEA)
White Sox at Mariners – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$9,400 at DraftKings
$11,000 at FanDuel
$57 at Yahoo
The only thing knocking LHP Garrett Crochet down into the wild card bucket is a lofty salary across the board. FanDuel and Yahoo have assigned a salary for tonight that is commensurate with a Cy Young candidate, while DraftKings is not too far behind.
Seattle has been sublime over the last 17 games, with 13 victories. However, this has mostly been driven by an incredible starting rotation, while the offense has been doing a Milton Berle impersonation, showing just enough to win. Seven of the victories in this stretch have seen the Mariners score four or fewer runs. The team has the most strikeouts in the league, and while they have scored the seventh-fewest runs, the Mariners are eighth for total round-trippers.
Crochet is among the league leaders with 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings, with the second-most whiffs in the league and a 0.930 WHIP that is inside the top 5. It is going to be in the mid-60s tonight with a light breeze coming in from left field, which bodes well for a pitching duel between the rookie and his veteran counterpart in T-Mobile Park.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Mets
Mets vs. Marlins – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Roddery Munoz
DK Top Stack %: 13.5%
FD Top Stack %: 12.9%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has the New York Mets as the best team to target, with a date against RHP Roddery Munoz. The 24-year-old is back up in The Show for the second start of his second stint. He was called back up after allowing six runs in 6.1 innings against the Triple-A Durham Bulls.
Speaking of the Bulls, Munoz is basically a modern day Ebby Calvin “Nuke” LaLoosh, minus the five-cent head and without the Porsche 911, replete with quadraphonic Blaupunkts. In his four starts, Munoz has logged 19.2 innings, 22 strikeouts, 11 walks and eight home runs. Sadly, even “Crash” Davis would not be able to instill him with enough confidence to succeed in the professional ranks.
After being released by Atlanta last season, Munoz scuffled between Pittsburgh and Washington before landing with the Marlins. He has a 95 to 97 mph fastball — but with limited movement — and no secondary pitches. So he is more like Tim Robbins than the mythical Nuke LaLoosh.
Look to the lefties first, with switch-hitter Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo being the foundational pieces. Pete Alonso seems all but preordained to knock one out of the park, and even silverback J.D. Martinez profiles well against Munoz. Unfortunately, Brett Baty couldn’t even hold on to a platoon gig at third base, so he is in the minors. Jeff McNeil can be added for those seeking a full stack, but he has been in a funk at the plate all year, as has catcher Francisco Alvarez.
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Late Slate Target: Texas Rangers
Rangers at Dodgers – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Ryan Yarbrough
DK Top Stack %: 6.8%
FD Top Stack %: 5.7%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool would, of course, prefer the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight, but that is obvious, so let’s take a gander at their opponents. RHP Michael Grove is slated to be the opener ultimately giving way to LHP Ryan Yarbrough if things go as projected. The Dodgers have several other relievers who have had limited work in the last weeks, so they have other arms.
The defending World Champions have struggled on offense, scoring two or fewer runs in five of the last eight games. Corey Seager is back, and his three-run moon shot in the fifth inning propelled Texas to a 3-2 victory last night. The Rangers also have Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia on either side of Seager, giving the team a potent trio that can handle pitchers of either handedness. Youngster Wyatt Langford and switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim should also be on the shortlist for Texas stacks.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Brandon Pfaadt is popping up in the OddsShopper model for the under on his 5.5 strikeouts prop. The best line is -122, currently posted on Unibet and BetRivers.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -135 “true odds,” so the -122 line brings a desirable 4.6% expected ROI.
We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with sharp book Pinnacle all the way down at a punitive -176, which maths out to a dreadful -10% expected ROI . Be a savvy shopper!
Pfaadt is a talented pitcher, but he has been going through a rough stretch as he continues to hone his craft against major league hitting. His last 11 starts have resulted in five, eight, five, seven, nine, zero, four, 11, four, six and four strikeouts. Tonight Pfaadt projects for just shy of five strikeouts, and while that is below the 5.5 threshold for tonight’s wager, we can see by the 57% probability of him staying under the six-strikeout milestone that this is a good opportunity.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
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Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Thursday, June 13
Once again we are lucking out when it comes to precipitation, as there are no risks worth noting — though as always, do one final doublecheck with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 6:00 p.m. ET brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.
