MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 11
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
It looks like both the Yankees and Padres are relatively happy with the outcome of the blockbuster Juan Soto deal. Randy Vasquez is a work in progress but did see substantial time in The Show, while catcher Kyle Higashioka has worked out well in a platoon with Luis Campusano. RHP Jhony Brito is fine as an NPC reliever who should have a couple seasons in The Show, with RHP Drew Thorpe being a key part of the package sent to the White Sox for RHP Dylan Cease.
Seattle’s projected lineup has a 25.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, and Luke Raley (29.5%), Cal Raleigh (30.5%) and Jorge Polanco (33.1%) are the biggest culprits. In his first year as a full-time starter, King has a 28.2% strikeout rate while allowing a .127 ISO. Yahoo has the best salary for the 29-year-old hurler, making him a priority on the hidden site.
The team has at least reduced the strikeout rate over the last month, but the 23.7% is just inside the top 10. Still, that is better than their second place (26.4%) for the full season. Brown has a 1.78 ERA, 2.80 xFIP and 3.23 FIP over his last 10 games, with 61 strikeouts in 60.2 innings. He also has allowed only a trio of taters, ceding only one in his last six starts. Enjoy!
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Expect the boys in blue to run out a mostly right-handed lineup against the young southpaw. Wicks will do his best to use guile and subterfuge, attempting to put the opposition in the ground (46.5% across 316 plate appearances). Though his fastball is lacking, the top-50 MLB prospect does have multiple breaking pitches, but that may not be enough to survive against this vaunted lineup.
It has been seven games since Los Angeles last topped eight runs, which feels like a lifetime for this offense. The Dodgers do have games with six and seven runs, but with everyone healthy, the expectations are that they should at least move beyond the Yankees, who have a 10-run lead, though the surprising Diamondbacks may be out of reach with 68 over their NL West counterparts.
Shohei Ohtani is inching ever closer to the first 50/50 season, and he crushes fellow lefties. Freddie Freeman is also elite against same-handed pitchers, but he does not hold a candle to Mookie Betts or Teoscar Hernandez. Expect catcher Will Smith back in the lineup after a rest day, rounding out this fierce top 5.
DraftKings has assigned Ohtani a $7,000 salary, which is a rarity for a player even in Coors Field. Yahoo seems to have hardcoded the reigning MVP at $18, with July 22 ($21) being the last time he had a different cap hit. The blue site has Ohtani as the most expensive hitter, but it is still a manageable $4,900. Even on DraftKings, rostering Ohtani will still anchor a lineup within 2 points of the median optimal projection.
Chris Taylor and Kike Hernandez have at least been making contact against lefties over the last 30 days, but each has otherwise struggled at the plate this season.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore has fallen to the middle of the pack from a scoring perspective over the last month, but expect things to turn around soon. Over his last two starts, RHP Nick Pivetta has allowed only three runs, but he did face the White Sox in Boston and the Tigers in Detroit. Prior to that, he had five consecutive games with two home runs, which is why we want to target against him tonight.
The 31-year-old still gets it done against weaker teams, but he is not as reliable against the cream of the crop. Despite the swoon, the Orioles still lead the league in total bases and are only one longball behind the Yankees in the home run race. Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander and Ryan O’Hearn are the trio to target at the top of the order. There is a decent chance that Cedric Mullins will get to swap spots with struggling Adley Rutschman, which gives him a good chance for an extra at-bat. Colton Cowser is the other recommended option, with Jackson Holliday going through the rookie doldrums, making him a tough click.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
RHP Bobby Miller has had a rough seasons, bouncing between The Show and the minors. He has allowed home runs in 10 consecutive big league appearances, along with at least three walks in seven of these games.
The Portfolio EV model has the 24-year-old hurler for around 4.9 strikeouts tonight, which is below the 5.5 strikeouts being offered across various sportsbooks.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Fliff, where it is available at -135 odds.
Portfolio EV shows this wager has -144 “true odds,” and that works out to a reasonable 2.7% expected ROI.
We can see that Pinnacle has a punitive -168 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 8% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
In this 10-game sample, Miller has 37 strikeouts and 43 earned runs across 43.2 innings. The projected lineup for Chicago has a solid 20.3% strikeout rate this season against right-handed pitchers, and the Cubbies should be able to get some extra-base hits given their .178 ISO.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
