Sunday should make all DFS gamers thankful, with two waves of games: The first at 1:35 p.m. ET and the second in the 4 o’clock hour, leading to some fun contests on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Tarik Skubal and Pablo Lopez as key arms, with the Rays, Marlins and, of course, Atlanta Braves bats being the top stacks.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 28
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Tarik Skubal vs. Kansas City Royals — 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $10,900 | Yahoo $55
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool still loves LHP Tarik Skubal even though the DFS sites are charging full freight for his services this afternoon. Last year in his 15 starts, Skubal finally realized all of his potential, recording career-bests of 11.43 strikeouts, 1.57 walks and 0.45 home runs per nine innings. One other key improvement is that he has increased his ground ball rate each of the last four seasons, which should have him posting a top-10 ERA once again.
Kansas City does not have an abundance of strikeouts versus southpaws, but they also lack above average power. There are decent contact hitters, though that can be mitigated with Skubal’s proclivity for grounders, as long as his defense is up to the task. Those looking for a discount can consider RHP Albert Suarez of the Orioles, going against the pitiful Oakland A’s in Baltimore. RHP Dane Dunning is at home against the Cincinnati Reds and LHP Ryan Weathers and the Marlins are hosting the hapless Washington Nationals as two more alternatives.
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Late Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Pablo Lopez at Los Angeles Angels — 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,300 | FanDuel $9,900 | Yahoo $45
For the afternoon slate, the matchup between RHP Pablo Lopez and LHP Reid Detmers is basically a pick’em with Minnesota slightly favored by a percentage point or two. The teams, offenses and starting pitchers are also evenly matched, so here are some quick thoughts on both aces toeing the rubber.
Lopez has a 10% discount to Detmers on Yahoo, but a 10% premium on DraftKings. Over on FanDuel, just $200 separates the duo and they trail only rookie RHP Jared Jones for overall salary. The Minnesota hurler has a longer track record of success, and there are a lot of strikeouts in the Halos projected lineup, with the team setting up better against southpaws. Looking at the Twins offense, Detmers does not have the same advantageous strikeout matchup, but he does a good job of creating his own luck and we can pencil in Byron Buxton for at least two whiffs.
Let personal preference or price be your guide in this coinflip of a decision today.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Miami Marlins vs. LHP Patrick Corbin — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
The only good news for Washington fans is that this is the sixth and final season of LHP Patrick Corbin’s monstrosity of a $140 million contract. Yes, he was a key part of the 2019 World Series run, but since the start of the 2020 season, only RHP Jordan Lyles has allowed more home runs than Corbin. The biggest knock against the Marlins is that they lack power. Though with Corbin being friendly to all opposing bats as well as Josh Bell and Avisail Garcia bringing the lumber, Miami is an interesting “short stack” built around that duo. While it is a small sample size and, of course, no indication of what will happen today, in 21 combined at bats, Bell and Garcia have collected five home runs and a double on seven hits.
Using this dynamic duo as differentiation, while loading up on Atlanta, Baltimore, New York and St. Louis is a savvy strategy.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Tampa Bay Rays at RHP Erick Fedde — 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has determined that RHP Erick Fedde is either an imposter or he had a lucky horseshoe surgically implanted over the offseason. In six seasons with the Nationals, Fedde logged 454.1 innings, 6.97 strikeouts per nine innings and a healthy 1.55 home runs and 3.78 walks per nine. This resulted in a 5.41 ERA and while he was unlucky according to his 5.17 FIP and 4.56 xFIP, he was worth a mere 1.4 wins above replacement.
Last season he was in the KBO and showed enough to get a deal from the White Sox. In five outings this season he has a wicked 10.25 strikeouts per nine innings, though 1.71 home runs per nine and a completely unsustainable 91.7 strand rate. The only change to his pitching numbers is that he has added a split-finger fastball that he is using 21% of the time, but that is only going to save the 31-year-old baseball nomad for so long before hitters figure it out.
Yandy Diaz should be back in the lineup today and while Josh Lowe (oblique) had his return from the injured list pushed back due to hamstring tightness, the top of the Tampa order should still crush today. Randy Arozarena, Richie Palacios and Isaac Paredes round out the core four, with Jose Siri in the mix as a one-off or part of a wraparound stack.
Late Slate Target: Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies in Mexico City — 16.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
All we need to know is that this game is being played in Mexico City at Alfredo Harp Helú Stadium. While this venue has similar dimensions to Coors Field, it also has an additional 2,000 feet of elevation. These two articles from CBS Sports and MLB.com do a nice job of breaking everything down that we need to know about this game.
For those that fall into the TLDR category, play every hitter in the Houston lineup as the Astros are facing LHP Austin Gomber and a bullpen that threw 90 pitches yesterday. Of course, Friday was a travel day for both teams, so that will help the relievers who didn’t go yesterday be relatively fresh, but that should not dissuade anyone from stacking the ‘Stros.
LHP Framber Valdez will be taking the mound against the Rockies, though the 30-year-old southpaw is coming off the injured list, having landed there three weeks ago after experiencing soreness in his left elbow during a throwing session. Valdez is one of the most prolific ground ball pitchers in the league and over the last few seasons he has also added strikeouts to his repertoire. It is a long season, so do not expect the Astros to push him too hard, which means at least four or five innings for the bullpen who tallied 81 pitches on Saturday. The right-handed batsmen for the Rockies are the way to go when looking at Colorado stacks.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Home runs are, of course, fickle and hard to predict, but they also have an elevated payout to offset the risk. Today Julio Rodriguez stands out for his +500 home run prop which is available on BetRivers and Unibet.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +396 “true odds,” and the +500 line currently available provides a terrific 21.0% expected return on investment (ROI). Home runs wagers need to be measured on an extended time horizon to see the best results. It is also important to remember to appropriately size your wager, considering the likelihood of failure more often than not.
Rodriguez is off to a slow start, with just one home run on the season. However, the two-time All-Star had 28 and 32 home runs in his first two MLB campaigns, and he also had some impressive highlights in the Home Run Derby. Today his is facing RHP Brandon Pfaadt, who is still finding his footing in The Show as an above average prospect. Last year Pfaadt had issues with same-handed power hitters, which bodes well for Rodriguez collecting his second longball of the season.
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Final Thoughts for Sunday, April 28 — MLB DFS Picks
Weather is again an issue in the Midwest, with both Chicago and Detroit potentially impacted by delays. There are also storms in Boston, so use caution with the all-day slates. Be sure to check your favorite DFS meteorological resources closer to first pitch to see if there are any urgent updates.
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