MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 17
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Charitably looking back to the start of last year, Bobby Witt Jr. is, of course, a superstar against all pitchers, while Vinnie Pasquantino and veteran Salvador Perez provide contact and above-average pop. Overall, the projected lineup has been good at limiting strikeouts with an 18.9% rate over the last season-plus, but the lack of walks and a shaky bottom of the order help balance out that one asset for opposing pitchers.
Olson does not help his cause by generating strikeouts, as he has a 21.7% rate last year and a 19.4% combined rate through the early portion of this season. Limiting power and run prevention are the hallmarks of the 25-year-old’s pitching portfolio, with 0.86 home runs per nine innings in his 231 career innings, accompanied by a 3.90 ERA, 3.82 xFIP and 3.59 FIP. He does have 8.45 strikeouts per nine innings, though again, Kansas City is not a lineup that grants many freebies.
When healthy, Heaney has always been a solid source of strikeouts, but the veteran of 12 MLB campaigns has played in only 206 games with 188 starts. Across the last four-plus seasons, the 33-year-old has 10.03 strikeouts per nine innings, which helps offset his propensity for serving up home runs at a 1.54-per-nine clip.
The Nationals projected lineup has a low 18.9% strikeout rate and a steady 8.9% walk rate against southpaws reaching back to last season. The tradeoff is essentially no power with a collective .105 ISO. The better hitters such as Luis Garcia, James Wood and Nathaniel Lowe all swing the stick from the left side of the plate, which plays right into the strength of Heaney’s strikeout stuff.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Texas Rangers
Turning our attention to Texas, the Rangers have a nice matchup against RHP Jack Kochanowicz, who has matriculated his way through the minors without many accolades or prospect potential.
Kochanowicz was a third-round selection out of high school in the 2019 MLB Draft, seeing the start of his career delayed by the pandemic. He stands 6-foot-7 and has a fastball that regularly is in the upper 90s, but it is a pitch that does not get many misses. This has led to the righty leaning on his sinker and slider, making him relatively predictable, despite the unique angle and release plane. Here is an interesting article on FanGraphs detailing his challenges and shockingly low 9.4% strikeout rate that is not much better through 65 hitters this season at just 13.8%.
Joc Pederson is perfectly suited to put one in the cheap seats tonight, and Corey Seager also profiles well as a fellow lefty. Josh Jung and Jake Burger are solid bats with extra-base-hit upside in the bottom half of the order.
The Los Angeles bullpen is relatively fresh and rested, but it is also populated with four rookies, and only closer Kenley Jansen and journeyman Brock Burke have more than three years of service time. For those wondering, former starters Ian Anderson and Reid Detmers are the only other arms with any experience among the relievers.
Early Slate Contrarian Target: Cincinnati Reds
The 26-year-old does not miss bats or induce ground balls, which leads to big innings for opposing offenses — he has a career rate of 1.72 home runs per nine innings across 73.1 frames. Emerson is filling the hole in the rotation created by the injured George Kirby, and Seattle would prefer to avoid the need to use him.
In his lone MLB outing back on the final day of March, Detroit dropped six runs on Hancock with seven hits and a walk. The hits included a round-tripper and a pair of doubles, and Hancock recorded only two outs before being sent to the showers.
Cincinnati started the season off slowly; however, the Reds won seven of their last 10 games while also picking things up at the plate. The Great American Ballpark is the most homer-prone venue in the league, which along with Hancock, presents the ingredients for some crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
Look to the top of the order in Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, TJ Friedl and former Dodger Gavin Lux as the core four with which to construct lineups. Veteran switch-hitter Jeimer Candelario and Jake Fraley are potential differentiation options from the bottom of the order. The Seattle bullpen is not particularly experienced, with the average hurler having barely one season of service time in the big leagues.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take Kameron Misner’s home run prop today, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Home run props are fickle, which is why it is key to get the best number and also be prudent with wager sizing. Under the additional information tab (not pictured), we can see that most books have posted lines in the +700 to +750 range, though Hard Rock is down at +600, with Caesars even lower at +550. FanDuel usually has the best home run odds, though it is important to know that they will not cancel the wager if the player doesn’t start the game but still makes a pinch-hit appearance. Understanding the rules of your sportsbook of choice is key!
Misner is a late-bloomer, not making it to The Show until his age-26 season last year. Though he only has slightly above-average power, George Steinbrenner Field is favorable to left-handed batsmen, mimicking the Yankee Stadium dimensions. The weather and opposing pitcher RHP Will Warren are also conducive to extra-base hits and, hopefully in Misner’s case, a home run.
