MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 20
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
In the seven preceding starts in front of Saturday’s debacle, Cole allowed a grand total of seven runs, two round-trippers and a dozen free passes. This was all more than offset by his 47 strikeouts in 40 innings. Across this span, the 34-year-old compiled a 1.58 ERA, a 2.45 FIP and a 3.43 xFIP.
Across the last 30 days, Oakland is 18th with 4.18 runs per game. The Athletics have a 24.9% strikeout rate (8th) and a .175 ISO (6th), but extra-base hits are not so bad when the bases are typically empty. The A’s have a paltry 6.3% walk rate (29th) in this timeframe.
Keep in mind that Cole was shut down this spring with elbow nerve inflammation, delaying his debut until late June. Yes, his 3.97 ERA is his highest since 2017, but the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner is still a force to be reckoned with.
Prior to his extended absence, Musgrove had a 5.66 ERA, 5.36 FIP and 4.32 xFIP, with only 8.03 strikeouts per nine innings. Since mid-August, he has a wicked 9.95 strikeouts per nine, giving him ample access to the currency of the DFS realm.
The White Sox need to win six of their final nine games to tie the 1962 New York Mets with 120 losses in a season. That was an expansion franchise, while Chicago was a division winner in 2021, further highlighting how dramatic this fall from grace has been.
Over the last 30 days, the White Sox have scored the fewest runs (81) in the league, falling 10 short of Boston and 11 behind Baltimore. The ignominious results are even worse in the Windy City, where the Cubs have tallied 99 more runs (180) in this same period. Check back throughout the weekend to see how Your Ol’ Pal tries to find new and inventive ways to document this horror show.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
New York is one game ahead of Cleveland in the loss column for the best record in the American League while trailing Los Angeles and Philadelphia by two games, just in case anyone is looking ahead to World Series homefield advantage.
RHP J.T. Ginn was the wild card recommendation for last Saturday’s wonky featured slate. This was only because of his salary and the matchup against the hapless White Sox.
Essentially, this ended up being a batting practice-type performance from Ginn, who allowed 10 hits in four innings. He escaped with only three earned runs, but he now has allowed 22 hits in his last 15 innings.
Looking at this another way, of the last 66 batters to square off against Ginn, 22 ended up with hits, two walked and 15 struck out. That is playing with fire against a team like the Yankees, who have scored the third-most runs in the league this season.
Juan Soto has been the perfect wingman for Judge, ranking fourth in the league with a career-high 40 home runs. He is adept against both righties and fellow lefties, able to work the entire field from the batter’s box. Austin Wells is a core catching option on DraftKings and Yahoo, with or without his teammates, and Jazz Chisholm and Giancarlo Stanton round out the other main stacking pieces.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Houston Astros
Anderson is now in the “crafty lefty” phase of his career, with decreasing strikeouts and power risk always lurking under the surface, which is terrifying for a pitcher with fly ball tendencies. He also has been lucky with a .252 batting average on balls in play, which is well below his .280 career rate since leaving the Colorado Rockies behind.
This will be the fourth time this season he has faced Houston, with the Astros getting to him with seven hits, three walks and four earned runs on Saturday in Anaheim. Kyle Tucker has been rusty since returning from his injury layoff, but he still has a .217 ISO against fellow lefties this season.
Yordan Alvarez is one of the most complete hitters in the game, with an elite .449 wOBA and .261 ISO in 199 same-handed matchups this year. Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman have a long history of success against southpaws, and Jake Meyers and Jeremy Pena are more than holding their own with the platoon advantage. But wait, there’s more … look to catcher Yainer Diaz as a luxury option on DraftKings and Yahoo, while Victor Caratini is in play as a discount dandy if he is behind the dish tonight.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
RHP Collin Rea was in the midst of a career season, posting a 3.72 through his first start in September. Then he ran into the Giants, who walloped him for 10 earned runs in San Francisco.
The Portfolio EV model has the 34-year-old hurler for around 3.6 strikeouts tonight, which is basically in line with his 3.5 strikeouts being offered across various sportsbooks.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on DraftKings and PointsBet where it is available at -120 odds.
Portfolio EV shows this wager has -113 “true odds,” and that works out to a solid 3.4% expected ROI.
We can see that BetMGM has a punitive -125 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 5% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Rea has one strikeout in each of his last two starts, though he has had four or more in the nine preceding outings. It is key to note that his 7.1 per nine innings are his fewest since joining Milwaukee and also below his career 7.3 per nine.
Arizona has been surging over the second half of the season and the Diamondbacks now lead the league with 840 runs, well ahead of the Dodgers (788), Yankees (762), Mets (740) and Phillies (739). Over the last 30 days, the D-backs have average 6.61 runs per game in this stretch and 6.39 per game since the All-Star Break. In that timeframe after the break, Arizona has a 19.2% strikeout rate, which is the second lowest in the league.
The hope is that between the prolific offense and discerning batsmen, Rea will be forced out of the game prior to recording his fourth strikeout.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
