MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | March 28
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Across 90 regular season innings, the 26-year-old was solid with a 3.09 xFIP, 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings and a scant 0.7 home runs per nine. Most of the season line projection systems (Steamer, ZiPS, The Bat, etc.) have him losing around a strikeout per nine, with an uptick in taters and staying neutral on his 2.2 walks per nine.
POP QUIZ: Quick, name three Detroit hitters. Here is a hint, Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. OK, some may guess Javier Baez, and yes, he is still cashing checks from the Tigers. The veteran was about as disinterested as it gets last year, playing in only 80 games with a .184/.221/.294 triple-slash line and a below-anemic .110 ISO, striking out nearly once every four at-bats. Yesterday he was 0-2, and there is a chance he won’t even make the lineup on Friday. Shockingly, he didn’t opt out of his contract, so the Motor City Kitties will be paying him $73 million over the next three seasons.
Some may vaguely remember Spencer Torkelson, who was the top pick in the 2020 MLB Draft. Despite the pedigree, he was sent back to the minors from June through mid-August to work on a few things. Colt Keith was selected in the fifth round, after Torkelson, who flashed enough at the plate to actually see time in the postseason. Yes, the Tigers were one of three Wild Card teams in the American League, lucking into an 86-76 record. Detroit fans should not expect such a fortuitous outcome this season, with a 31-24 record in one-run games and 36 comeback wins unlikely to happen again. The 15 shutouts, well, that is definitely in play. The rest of the everyday starters include Jake Rodgers, Zach McKinstry, Manny Margot and Gleyber Torres. The latter two were the big offseason moves to bolster the offense, which is indicative of waving the white flag right meow.
The 32-year-old veteran hurler saw his hard-hit rate increase each of the last four seasons, so escaping Cincinnati’s Great American SMALLpark is paying dividends for the M’s, who acquired the former Red at the 2022 trade deadline. In conjunction with the increase in hard hits, Castillo has also seen his fly ball rate over 42% in his time with Seattle, which is a major increase from his 25.1% rate in his final 3 1/2 campaigns in Cincy. The 30% increase in home runs as a Mariner is a jump, though the conditions for tonight’s game and the matchup should quell fears for now. Just know that this is not a lockdown matchup with the A’s having productive power bats.
Lawrence Butler (.227 ISO, 25.3% strikeout rate, 362 plate appearances) is an interesting leadoff hitter, with Brent Rooker (.259, 30.3%, 476), Shea Langeliers (.223, 27.7%, 390) and Tyler Soderstrom (.207, 25.7%, 191) trading off strikeouts for power since the start of last year against right-handed hurlers. JJ Bleday doesn’t have extreme power (.188, 18.0%, 517), though he does have a patience at the plate.
In his last 63 starts, Castillo allowed more than four runs on seven occasions. Six times he was saddled with five “Ernies,” with seven in the other appearance. Going home run hunting with an Athletic or two is fine, though a full stack for leverage purposes is unlikely to truly pay off tonight.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Everything broke his way last year, with a 3.27 ERA that was the second lowest of his career. Of course, he also had a career-low 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings and lucked out with an above-average strand rate. Considering this is his age-33 season, caution is advised for those thinking his sterling performance is to be replicated this year.
Losing Christian Walker was a blow to the D-backs, though replacing him with Josh Naylor is far from dreadful. The former Guardian had a .224 ISO in his last 452 plate appearances against opposite-handed hurlers and a solid 15.7% strikeout rate.
Eugenio Suarez can still hit for extra bases when he makes contact, plus Corbin Carroll will be near the top of the order with his impressive power/speed combo. Switch-hitter Ketel Marte has become one of the most well-rounded leadoff hitters in the game, able to work the count, make contact and swipe a bag when needed.
Pavin Smith is a deep discount who has better pop than Jake McCarthy. This duo is at a similar salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which provides options for those looking to differentiate from the rest of the Arizona stacks. The best guess is that McCarthy will be higher in the order, which will have him appear more appealing to the Sims and optimizers. Keep in mind that baseball is wildly variant, and if there is a sizable gap in their popularity, looking to the lower option is a savvy strategy.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Houston Astros
Paredes was an OPS machine during his time in Tampa, earning him an All-Star nod last year before the Rays dealt him to the Cubs for Christopher Morel. The 26-year-old struggled with the change, though that was also a small sample size. Expect him to be right at home near the top of the Houston batting order with far more protection behind him than he had in St. Petersburg.
Walker is one of the best hitters in the league against fellow righties, which is evidenced by his .353 wOBA, .252 ISO and 9.4% walk rate in his last 393 same-handed matchups. Yordan Alvarez is even better than Walker, albeit from the left side of the plate. His prodigious power projects for a potential multi-extra-base-hit outing tonight, which is key for tournaments.
Jose Altuve and Yainer Diaz can be employed to round out full stacks, though everything should be centered around the trio of Alvarez, Walker and Paredes.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
RHP Mitch Keller is a decent strikeout pitcher, though he is far from a fire balling ace. In his last 92 starts, he is averaging a tick under a strikeout per inning, with a bit of a ground ball lean when he is trying to get out of trouble.
The Portfolio EV model has the 25-year-old hurler for around 5.1 strikeouts on Friday, which is below the 5.5 offering at most books and well under the six needed for this wager to lose.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Hard Rock where it is available at -150 odds. Portfolio EV shows this wager has -158 “true odds,” which brings forth a decent 2.2% expected ROI.
We can see that PointsBet has lowered the target to under 4.5 strikeouts, giving bettors +120 odds, which have a NEGATIVE 6% expected ROI. Most other operators are in the -165/-175 bracket, which is pretty punitive as well.
The projected Miami lineup had a 19.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching last year, which is just below league average.
There are likely to be several unproven youngsters in the lineup such as Matt Mervis, Griffin Conine and Graham Pauley, which does work out in Keller’s favor.
Xavier Edwards, Jonah Bride and Otto Lopez will need to help work the count and use up more than their share of Keller’s allotted pitch count. In his final three Spring Training outings, Keller tossed 48, 71 and 62 pitches, with 11 strikeouts in 10 innings.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
Final Thoughts for Today’s MLB DFS Picks and Action
