Wednesday brings an eight-game featured slate, with a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo has elected to go with a 7:05 p.m. ET lock time, snagging the final five games of the docket for their featured tournaments. Before diving into our MLB DFS picks, we’ll utilize Stokastic’s tools to identify the top MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Nathan Eovaldi and Tanner Bibee in great matchups against weak offenses. Stacking candidates include the Rangers and Orioles.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 24
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Nathan Eovaldi (TEX vs. CHW)
Rangers vs. White Sox – 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
$8,800 at DraftKings
$9,900 at FanDuel
$45 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool is willing to give RHP Nathan Eovaldi a mulligan for his last start, which saw the venerable veteran give up a trio of taters and six total runs across five innings against Baltimore. The Orioles lead the league in home runs and have one of the best offenses in the league. Tonight the 34-year-old hurler will be taking on the Chicago White Sox, which represent the extreme opposite end of the spectrum.
Eovaldi basically began his career, around the same time that daily fantasy sports began to take hold among sports nerds. Tonight will be the 283rd appearance of his career, which began back in 2011 with the Los Angeles Dodgers. During his journey, the baseball nomad has had stops with the Marlins, Yankees, Rays, Red Sox and this is his second season with the Rangers.
Across 17 starts, Eovaldi has a solid 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings rate, while posting a 3.36 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He has logged 99 innings, which has him falling just short of qualifying for the leaderboard.
in the five games since the All-Star Break, Chicago has scored only eight runs. The White Sox are 35 runs behind the Marlins and a whopping 68 runs below the Mariners. The ChiSox are averaging 3.12 runs per game, which is almost half a run lower than any of the worst teams over the last five seasons. Don’t think to hard on this one, just join The Masses in celebrating Nathan Eovaldi Day.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE vs. DET)
Guardians vs. Tigers – 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
$8,500 at DraftKings
$9,400 at FanDuel
$46 at Yahoo
The Motor City Kitties have a 13-6 (68%) record over the last 19 games, while averaging a whopping 5.6 runs per tilt during this stretch. That is impressive and must be acknowledged, though we can still pick on Detroit today with RHP Tanner Bibee.
Though his 2024 stat lines are not quite as good as his rookie campaign, Bibee has been terrific through is first 45 starts. In these 252.2 innings, he has 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings, with 8 quality starts, while also limiting power, boasting a .145 ISO across 1,041 batters faced. This is a strength-on-strength matchup for the top half of the Detroit lineup, with Matt Vierling, Riley Greene and Carson Kelly averaging a combined .350 wOBA and a .210 ISO this season against right-handed pitchers. Fellow youngsters Colt Keith and Wenceel Perez have held their own, with Justyn-Henry Malloy chipping in from time-to-time.
This will not be a walk in the park for Bibee, but there are strikeouts to be had and we know just how inconsistent youngsters can be, even the uber-talented ones, after watching the Orioles over the last couple of seasons.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Gerrit Cole (NYY vs. NYM)
Yankees vs. Mets – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$9,400 at DraftKings
$10,000 at FanDuel
$45 at Yahoo
This season, RHP Gerrit Cole has made six starts, but we are going to focus on his last four, where he has tallied 90, 90, 106 and 103 pitches. The 33-year-old was shut down in spring training with elbow soreness, though fortunately it was only inflammation, so rest rather than surgery was the answer.
Cole’s first two starts saw him toss 62 and 72 pitches, allowing eight runs, in eight combined innings against the Orioles and Mets. New York got him for four home runs, but let’s give the longtime ace a mulligan on that outing, since he has allowed only a pair of round-trippers in his last 21.1 innings, while racking up 29 strikeouts.
The Mets have a solid lineup, but there are holes with DJ Stewart and the suddenly scorching hot Jeff McNeil, and the last 62 plate appearances against righties have been dreadful for J.D. Martinez, with a .281 wOBA and .078 ISO. Similar to Bibee and Detroit, this is another strength on strength matchup. Cole is a more accomplished and experienced ace, but he also has the higher salary and tougher matchup.
For more tips on leveraging the Post-Contest Simulator to enhance your lineup analysis, take a look at Steve Buzzard’s guide on how to use simulations to refine your lineup study process!
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Orioles at Marlins – 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Edward Cabrera
DK Top Stack %: 9.6%
FD Top Stack %: 9.2%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool was amazed that RHP Edward Cabrera allowed only one earned run against the Mets in his last start, despite a whopping five walks. Home runs have also been an issue, with nine in his last six starts.
When available, having logged only 33 innings, Cabrera has a crazy 43 strikeouts. However, even with 12 in his last 11.2 innings, he still is allowing nearly two baserunners per frame.
The 4.4 run total for the Orioles certainly feels low, for those interested in taking a position on the over, most books are close to even money, if Baltimore is able to plate five runners. Check out OddsShopper for more details.
The Batters of Birdland have scored the fourth most runs (496) this season, averaging a league leading 4.96 per game. The team is also first in both home runs and total bases, with a glorious .253/.314/.452 triple-slash line. There is power up and down the lineup, with players available at a variety of salaries and covering all the positions. The priorities for this matchup should be Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander and Ryan O’Hearn. The second wave includes Jordan Westbur, Colton Cowser and Cedric Mullins. In a twist, Adley Rutschman has been a mere mortal when swinging the stick from the left-side of the plate this season, with a .296 wOBA and a .146 ISO. The power is down a tick from last season, however, the 50 point drop in wOBA is more concerning, making it easier to skip over the All-Star catcher, which improves differentiation against other Baltimore stacks.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Texas Rangers
Rangers vs. White Sox – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Chris Flexen
DK Top Stack %: 8.9%
FD Top Stack %: 9.6%
It is a fun redemption story for RHP Chris Flexen, who parlayed a single season in the KBO back in 2020, into a second chance in The Show, after washing out with the New York Mets. Flexen had two serviceable seasons with the Seattle Mariners, but the wheels came off the wagon last year.
Flexen’s dismal outings and the rapid improvement of his young counterparts had the M’s demote him to the bullpen, before designating him for assignment after appearing in just 17 games. Colorado was so pitching starved last year, that they scooped up the erstwhile ace, giving him a dozen starts over the latter portion of the season. The 6.27 ERA and 1.54 WHIP had the Rockies giving Flexen his walking papers. Though the White Sox came knocking with a $1.75 million dollar deal and a promise to have a shot at the rotation.
Over his last seven games, Flexen has allowed 28 runs in 37.2 innings, with 17 walks, eight round-trippers and just 26 whiffs. We should not be sad for the 30-year-old as he collected nearly $14.5 million after his lone season with the Doosan Bears. We also should load up on Texas bats tonight.
After looking like the new Globe Life Field appeared to be a pitching friendly venue after the first season, the park is more of a neutral to positive location for offense. This has held true, even with the roof closed.
Corey Seager has looked like a borderline MVP when healthy this year, while Josh Smith has been exceeding most expectations at the plate as well. The team sets up better against southpaws, but Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien and Nate Lowe have power that plays against pitchers of either-handedness. Justin Foscue is the punt du jour, with rookie Wyatt Langford worth of considerations for full-stacks.
Our Lineup Generator offers exceptional value at Stokastic! Learn how to utilize it alongside our other MLB DFS tools by checking out our Lineup Generator Guide!!
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Tonight we should be leaning on RHP Tanner Bibee in the DFS world, but we can also target him in the sports wagering market as well, in turn buoying some of the downside risk of his fantasy production.
Currently, the under on his 6.5 strikeouts stands out on DraftKings, where it is available at -110 odds.
OddsShopper shows this wager has -117 “true odds” for Bibee to fall short of seven strikeouts, which brings a 2.8% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Unibet and Bet Rivers all the way down at a -148 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 10% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Bibee projects for 6.3 strikeouts tonight, which is well short of the seven needed for this under to lose. Of course that does not account for a variable range of outcomes, which is better represented by the 54% probability of this under being successful. In his last 10 starts, Bibee has posted six or fewer strikeouts four (40%) times, exactly seven three (30%) times and eight or more in a trio (30%) of tilts.
The projected lineup for Detroit has a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, but with three rookies in the lineup that did not have any plate appearances against righties last year in Colt Keith, Justyn-Henry Mallory and Wenceel Perez, there is always the potential they will have off games.
Other wagers appear and disappear within minutes once lineups are announced, making an OddsShopper Premium subscription essential for capitalizing on all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Wednesday, July 24
There is a lot of weather concern throughout the day for Wednesday’s action, though the featured-slate looks to be mostly risk-free, aside from the potential for an in-game delay in Washington. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for updates as the first pitch approaches.
To finalize your MLB DFS picks for today’s slate, tune in to the Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET, sponsored by Underdog. New users can click this link to receive a deposit match up to $250!
