Friday winds down the week with an eight-game slate and a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings and Yahoo. FanDuel is locking at 6:40 p.m. ET and including all 14 evening games for the biggest tournaments. Today we’ll dive into the MLB DFS projections and leverage Stokastic’s tools to see how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers and craft optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Corbin Burnes and Sean Manaea as preferred pitchers, while the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cleveland Guardians provide stacking opportunities for today’s featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 16
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Corbin Burnes (BAL vs. BOS)
Orioles vs. Red Sox – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
$9,700 at DraftKings
$10,000 at FanDuel
$48 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Corbin Burnes as the building block tonight for all DFS formats. Burnes has the second-best odds (+480) currently in the American League Cy Young Award race, but while he is lightyears ahead of RHP Logan Gilbert (+4000), he is trailing LHP Tarik Skubal (-750) by a dramatic amount.
Though Burnes is down to a career-low 8.24 strikeouts per nine innings, he has been more efficient with a 48.7% ground ball rate, leading to a strong 2.71 ERA, 3.11 xERA, 3.48 FIP and 3.55 xFIP. Over the last three seasons, he has allowed only one home run per nine innings, which is stellar considering how often he is willing to challenge hitters.
The last nine starts constitute the “roughest” stretch of Burnes’ season, but with a 3.63 ERA and four victories, we can’t be that angry about his 7.58 strikeouts per nine innings. His worst outings in this stretch are a pair of four-earned run games, in Cleveland and in Houston.
Boston has been inconsistent on offense, with six games of five or more runs in the last dozen. In a fun note, the current Boston batsmen have a .093/.155/.093 triple slash line in 54 at-bats against Burnes, with three of the five hits being accounted for by catcher Connor Wong. Yes, this is the first season for Burnes in the American League, but that also means the hitters are not overly familiar with him, having faced him twice, with the most recent game taking place at the end of May.
Triston Casas is expecting to play tonight after being sidelined by a rib injury in April, which gives a boost to the Red Sox. Still, the only truly scary bat is Rafael Devers, with minor worries in Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu.
For those playing on FanDuel, Paul Skenes and Gerrit Cole rank ahead of Burnes, and Aaron Nola is a tick behind. Enjoy the expanded slate on the blue site!
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Sean Manaea (NYM vs. MIA)
Mets vs. Marlins – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
$8,700 at DraftKings
$9,300 at FanDuel
$43 at Yahoo
It is pretty much a coinflip between LHP Sean Manaea and RHP Spencer Arrighetti tonight. Both are at home facing a bottom-2 offense, with their teams heavily favored for the win. Manaea has the experience edge while allowing less power than Arrighetti, and the youngster has a slim edge for strikeout upside.
The Marlins are averaging 1.6 more runs per game over the last 30 days than the White Sox, but that also includes the stretch prior to Miami trading away their remaining three best hitters. Jonah Bride and Derek Hill have power but also holes in their swings. Xavier Edwards is great for contact and on the basepaths but otherwise is a singles hitter. This is the type of lineup that a veteran should be able to handle. Manaea had control issues in his last start, striking out just three and walking five in three innings against the Mariners in Seattle. In the two games prior to that, he had 21 total strikeouts and one walk in 14 innings in games at St. Louis and against Minnesota. Let personal preference be your ultimate guide, with some influence in going with the least popular of this duo for differentiation from the field.
Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL at LAA)
Braves at Angels – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
$9,800 at DraftKings
$9,700 at FanDuel
$49 at Yahoo
Rookie RHP Spencer Schwellenbach has been impressive after starting the season in Double-A and making the jump into the Atlanta rotation after just 13 innings of MiLB action. While his 9.81 strikeouts and 1.53 walks per nine innings may start to recede, he still has exceeded everyone’s expectations.
The 24-year-old has suffered three multi-home run games in his last seven, but those are also the only longballs against him in that stretch. in his last outing, he successfully navigated Coors Field, ceding just two runs in six innings. Across his 44 innings in this span, he has a 3.07 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 2.84 xFIP and 10.64 strikeouts per nine innings.
Anaheim has scored five or more runs only three times in the last 14 games, with two or fewer in half of those tilts. The projected Los Angeles lineup has a .130 ISO and a 24.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Sorry, Angels fans.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers at Cardinals – 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Miles Mikolas
DK Top Stack %: 10.8%
FD Top Stack %: 7.5%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool has the San Diego Padres with nearly a 20% probability of being the highest-scoring fantasy stack tonight in Coors Field, facing RHP Cal Quantrill. The Rockies rank fifth across the DFS sites in a matchup against RHP Matt Waldron and his knuckleball.
Los Angeles has the second-highest likelihood of being the best offense tonight, though at only half of the rate of San Diego. It is going to be hot and humid in St. Louis tonight with temperatures starting out in the upper-80s and 60% humidity. This is also known as home run weather, though veteran RHP Miles Mikolas still allows “only” 1.2 home runs per nine, despite turning 36 years old next week.
Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez are a fearsome foursome at the top of the order, which is basically the best top quartet in the league, considering injuries. Add in other-worldly catcher Will Smith and hot-hitting Gavin Lux, and this is now a fully operational Death Star, as Stokastic analysis Eric Lindquist likes to say on MLB Live Before Lock, weekdays at 6 p.m. ET.
Want to improve your lineup analysis with the Post-Contest Simulator? Check out Steve Buzzard’s tutorial to discover how to use simulations to refine your MLB DFS picks!
Main Slate Secondary Target: Cleveland Guardians
Guardians at Brewers – 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Aaron Civale
DK Top Stack %: 4.9%
FD Top Stack %: 4.6%
This is an off-the-board play but one that does have merit. The Brewers acquired RHP Aaron Civale in early July to bolster their pitching staff, later adding RHP Frankie Montas.
Across his six starts for Milwaukee, Civale has cobbled together a 4.88 ERA, 5.47 FIP, 4.50 xFIP and 8.33 strikeouts per nine innings. These are OK, but the seven home runs and 17 walks in 31.1 innings are concerning — well, for the Brew Crew anyway. This season, Civale has allowed a .205 ISO to lefties and a .197 ISO to right-handed hurlers.
Josh Naylor and Jose Ramirez both profile well against their former teammate, as does rookie Jhonkensy Noel, who has flashed power upside. The second wave of targets includes Steven Kwan and Will Brennan at the top of the order, with both holding the platoon advantage. Brennan is a pinch-hit risk, though Milwaukee has just two southpaws in the bullpen, with each having worked once in the last 48 hours.
Unlock the full potential of Stokastic’s Lineup Generator and take your MLB DFS picks to the next level with our comprehensive Lineup Generator Guide!
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
While Spencer Schwellenbach is a strong DFS option, we can also look to the under on his 6.5 strikeouts tonight and hedge out some of the downside.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Fanatics where it is available at -125 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -136 “true odds” for the rookie upstart to fall below seven strikeouts tonight.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Pinnacle posting a -174 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 9% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Tonight Schwellenbach projects for just a hair over six strikeouts, which is clearly below the seven needed for this wager to fail. In his last 10 games, he has tallied seven, 10, 11, eight, three, six, seven, six, seven and three whiffs. Tonight we will need the likes of Nolan Schanuel, Taylor Ward and Anthony Rendon to work their plate discipline magic and have Schwellenbach burn through some of his pitch out.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Friday, Aug. 16
The featured slate looks to be precipitation free, though on the early evening slate Detroit and Pittsburgh could see roving showers. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
