Monday brings a new week, with the MLB featured tournaments locking at 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Look to Blake Snell and Luis Castillo as today’s aces, with a mix of hitters throughout the slate.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 8
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Blake Snell vs. Washington Nationals — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,400 | FanDuel $9,200 | Yahoo $41
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has LHP Blake Snell as the best starting pitcher, which is not a surprise considering his lofty salary and that he is coming off a season that saw him win his second Cy Young Award. Snell signed a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants towards the end of Spring Training. It took him a little while to be fully ramped up, and there, of course, are questions on just how far San Francisco will let him go tonight, considering the substantial investment they just made.
The 31-year-old southpaw has made more than 24 starts only three times in his career, and the only times he topped 27 outings, he won a Cy Young. Clearly, his health is an imperative. That said, even guesstimating something in the 80-pitch range, he looks like a strong play tonight.
Washington is a dreadful offense, and the Nationals have plated more than five runners only once in nine games this season. Their 3.3 implied run total is one of the lowest of the season, and there is a chance we will see something with a sub-3.00 line before the year is out, even as improbable as that seems.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Luis Castillo at Toronto Blue Jays — 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,400 | FanDuel $9,500 | Yahoo $37
The salary for RHP Luis Castillo is all over the place. He is cheap on Yahoo, in line with the other aces on FanDuel and a bit spendy on DraftKings. It may even be worthwhile to take his counterpart in this game on DraftKings, where RHP Jose Berrios is $2,300 cheaper.
This will be the first home game for Toronto after series in Tampa Bay, Houston and New York against the Yankees. The team has been mercurial with actual results, scoring three or fewer runs seven times and at least eight three times. Since the start of last season, the projected lineup has a collective 16.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, which is among the best in the league. Of course, this is a contact approach, as the .145 ISO is not particularly daunting. Castillo does a good job with strikeouts, posting 10 or more per nine innings in five of the last six seasons while also limiting the longball.
It does make sense to take a price-sensitive approach to the decision on Castillo tonight, particularly with a Coors Field Extravaganza on tap.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Philadelphia Phillies at RHP Miles Mikolas — 4.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool, naturally, is giving the green light to load up on hitters in Coors Field. Now, with that out of the way, let’s look at some other options. The Philadelphia batters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate look good in St. Louis tonight against RHP Miles Mikolas. In his last 409 opposite-handed matchups, Mikolas has allowed a .204 ISO, with low 3.9% walk and 15.2% strikeout rates. That means ample contact, resulting in extra-base hits.
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper seem all but preordained to account for at least one home run tonight. Brandon Marsh is a fine differentiation play from the bottom of the lineup, and Bryson Stott is in the mix as he continues to improve his power numbers. Mikolas is not exactly stingy against fellow righties, so Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos are perfect for filling out full stacks.
Late Slate Target: San Francisco Giants vs. RHP Trevor Williams — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
It is hard to tell the back of the rotation from the front when it comes to the Washington pitching situation. This weekend RHP Stephen Strasburg officially retired, which ends the chapter on the glory days that resulted in the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series. Only a couple of their hitters would be locks to start on most teams in the league, and the pitching is a disaster, aside from diminishing hope that RHP Josiah Gray can become a mid-rotation starter and LHP MacKenzie Gore can develop into the staff ace.
RHP Trevor Williams is a placeholder at best, with his best quality being that he made 30 starts last season. Of course, he only pitched a total of 144.1 innings, so he didn’t even make it through the fifth most of the time. That was courtesy of a disastrous 2.12 home runs per nine innings, and his 5.55 ERA actually was lucky when compared to his 5.66 xERA and 5.98 FIP.
Williams was a friend to both righties (.260 ISO) and lefties (.209 ISO) last year, so anyone with even a modicum of power is in play for the Giants. Jorge Soler, Michael Conforto and Matt Chapman are the trio to target in the heart of the order, with Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade or Jung Hoo Lee as candidates for a full stack.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Tonight LHP Nestor Cortes is someone to consider targeting in the sports wagering market with the under on his 5.5 strikeouts prop. Currently, Fliff is offering +105 for Cortes to fall short of six strikeouts. OddsShopper shows this bet has -113 “true odds,” and the +105 line currently available at Fliff provides an exceptional 8.9% expected return on investment (ROI).
Using OddsShopper to scan the entire marketplace, we can see that most books are in the -105 to -110 range, which is reasonable. But why not take the best line available? And certainly avoid those currently posted on Pinnacle and BetRivers.
A key thing to remember with the Marlins is that leadoff man Luis Arraez rarely strikes out and he sees a lot of pitches. He is one of three hitters with a strikeout rate of 15% or lower, which is a bonus for those looking at the under. In full transparency, Miami does have Jazz Chisholm (29.5%) and Avisail Garcia (37.0%), who both have elevated strikeout rates against lefties.
Cortes has seven strikeouts through 10 innings this season, but as long as we don’t get “Nasty Nestor” in full effect, he should be right around five strikeouts and under the 5.5 milestone.
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Final Thoughts for Monday, April 8 — MLB DFS Picks
Minnesota once again appears to be the only weather trouble spot, so be sure to monitor your favorite DFS meteorologist resources.
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