Monday brings a banger of a slate, with ample pitching options, despite just six games. The action locks at 7:40 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo decided to go with a seven-gamer, reaching forward to grab the 6:50 p.m. ET game in Tampa Bay, so do not miss the first pitch! Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Dylan Cease and Logan Gilbert as key arms, while the Astros and Rockies look like viable stacking options, despite a lack of marquee names.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 10
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Dylan Cease (SD vs. OAK)
Padres vs. Athletics – 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$10,300 at DraftKings
$10,200 at FanDuel
$51 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitcher’s Tool has RHP Dylan Cease as the ace of the day in a matchup with the Oakland Athletics, who could see a sub-3.00 run total before first pitch. Cease has ceded a pair of multi-home run games in his last four appearances, but he is also sixth in the league for total strikeouts. That, of course, is the currency of the realm for MLB DFS.
The 28-year-old hurler is at the peak of his powers, besting last year’s figures across the board. The A’s have scored the third-fewest runs in the league, despite having the fifth-most round-trippers. On the season, Oakland has a .217/.279/.342 triple-slash line, with only the Seattle Mariners striking out more frequently. If Cease is able to mitigate Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers and JJ Bleday, he should be in line for a quality start and potentially the victory. Enjoy!
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA vs. CHW)
Mariners vs. White Sox – 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$9,800 at DraftKings
$10,800 at FanDuel
$45 at Yahoo
Chicago is another team that could see a sub-3.00 team total prior to first pitch. It will be a cool evening in Seattle with game-time temperatures in the low-60s, which bodes well for RHP Logan Gilbert. The 27-year-old righty has allowed more than three runs in just three of his 13 appearances.
Gilbert has only a 3-4 record because the Seattle offense has been incredibly poor when he is on the mound. He ranks in the top 24 with his 3.12 ERA and 76 strikeouts, and he also has a top-10 0.980 WHIP. The White Sox have the fewest runs in the league (203), with the Miami Marlins (233) and the Oakland Athletics (242) dramatically outpacing them as the next “best” offenses. The Chi Sox have a .217/.279/.342 that is even more dreadful than the A’s.
Luis Robert Jr. is back, but Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi, Max Stassi and Tommy Pham are all out. That is half of an already weak starting lineup that is rolling out below-replacement-level backups. Gilbert should be in good shape if he can handle Robert, Gavin Sheets, Andrew Vaughn and Paul DeJong. The bottom of the order is definitely a three-up, three-down spot with Oscar Colas, Korey Lee and Lenyn Sosa.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Erick Fedde (CHW at SEA)
White Sox at Mariners – 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$7,800 at DraftKings
$8,600 at FanDuel
$39 at Yahoo
The resurgence of RHP Erick Fedde after a season in the KBO has been impressive. In his final three seasons with Washington, he was basically cannon fodder with a 5.42 ERA, 5.10 FIP and 4.53 xFIP, plus 7.24 strikeouts and 3.71 walks per nine innings.
In his lone season with the NC Dinos, Fedde ended up winning the pitching triple crown in the KBO. It was a long journey for the former 18th overall selection in the 2014 MLB Draft, to nearly falling out of the league then making a triumphant return. Fedde has said that getting his confidence back was key, as was learning to go after hitters instead of tentatively pitching depending on the count. He has developed a sweeper to use against same-handed batsmen as well as a renewed comfort with this changeup and sinker against lefties.
Yes, the league will make adjustments to his new repertoire, but for now it would seem that Fedde is back in the mix as a mid-rotation starter. In his last four outings, he has a 4.84 ERA, 2.75 FIP and 3.30 xFIP, with 9.27 strikeouts and 3.22 walks per nine innings while ceding just one home run. These included games in Chicago against the Cubs, in Toronto and in Milwaukee, with the lone home start being against Baltimore. Those are all solid to excellent offenses, which show that what Fedde is doing is likely sustainable, though not quite as flashy as his first nine starts.
The projected lineup for Seattle has just a .110 ISO against right-handed pitching this year, with a 26.1% strikeout rate. Those same hitters posted a .175 ISO and a 23.2% strikeout rate last year against righties. This entire team has been in a slump this year, particularly Julio Rodriguez, who has just five home runs and six doubles. Heck, J.P. Crawford has six home runs, eight doubles and a triple in 100 fewer at-bats, as he missed time with an injury.
Seattle has 10 wins in the last 14 games and are actually atop the American League West, but this is thanks to the M’s pitching and not the offense. Somehow the team is 37-30 with a +6 run differential, while Houston is 30-36 with the same +6 differential. Team of Destiny, yes, it would appear to be so, but this squad also leads the league in strikeouts while being in the bottom 5 for extra-base hits.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros
Astros at Giants – 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Kyle Harrison
DK Top Stack %: 9.8%
FD Top Stack %: 9.6%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has the Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees as the most likely offenses to lead the slate for fantasy production. Of course, this makes sense, but it is key to remember that Juan Soto has missed a few games with a sore forearm and RHP Seth Lugo is the frontrunner for the Ponce de Leon award, given each year to the pitcher who has found the fountain of youth.
The Twins finally have most of their hitters healthy and available, but RHP Dakota Hudson has actually been good outside of Coors Field this year with a 3.41 ERA, albeit in a small sample size of six games and 34.1 innings, but his ability to limit home runs and induce ground balls can kill rallies before they start.
Houston is without Kyle Tucker and will be taking on LHP Kyle Harrison, who is the top prospect for San Francisco and inside the top 25 on most industry lists. However, the 24-year-old had just 100.1 innings in Triple-A or The Show prior to being a full-time starter this season. He has been in line with his power expectations, better with his control but worse with the key DFS metric of strikeouts.
The last three stars for Harrison have been rough, with a pair of multi-home run efforts leading to a 6.19 ERA and 5.15 FIP. The strikeouts per innings and 3.75 xFIP indicate he has been a little unlucky, but we know young lefties often go through several adjustment periods as the league figures them out and they need to pivot to new strategies: Lather, rinse, repeat.
Even without Tucker, Houston still has plenty of scary bats. Jose Altuve is finally getting out of his slump, and in June across 32 at-bats, he has a .344/.382/.469 triple slash line, with six hits in his last two games, including a home run yesterday. Alex Bregman has an 11-game hitting streak and five multi-hit games. In the last 10 days, he has boosted his average by nearly 20 points, accompanied by two home runs and two doubles.
Yordan Alvarez is one of the best hitters in the game, and Jeremy Pena is hitting .300 this season with a .407 slugging percentage. Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers are cheap power options, while Mauricio Dubon thrives against lefties and is very familiar with San Francisco’s hitting environment, having spent four seasons with the club. Catcher Yainer Diaz is also a fine stacking option or as a one-off catcher on DraftKings and Yahoo, where a backstop is required.
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Wild Card Target: Colorado Rockies
Rockies at Twins – 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Chris Paddack
DK Top Stack %: 4.3%
FD Top Stack %: 4.9%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool does not have great things to highlight about full Colorado stacks; however, there is some concentrated production potential at the top of the lineup that could give RHP Chris Paddack some trouble.
The last five starts for Paddack have been rough, with the 28-year-old allowing four or more runs three times. In these 27.2 innings, he had allowed five round-trippers and a 6.51 ERA; though his 4.42 FIP shows he has been somewhat unlucky, even his full-season stat line has not been great.
Charlie Blackmon, Ezequiel Tovar and Ryan McMahon are the trio to target at the top of the order, with catcher Elias Diaz or speedster Brenton Doyle options for those looking at pushing their chips into the middle of the table. The bottom of the order is not great, which could lead towards the lineup turning over quickly. The good news is that means more at-bats against Paddack for the top half, but also it means there may not be anyone on base when it starts over. The Rockies are basically free on FanDuel, and they are not going to break the bank on Yahoo or DraftKings.
To be clear, this is a strategy suggestion for roster construction. The White Sox and Athletics are the only teams below the Rockies in the Top Stacks rankings.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Erick Fedde was covered above for his DFS merits, but we can also look to exploit him in the sports wagering world. The erstwhile ace stands out in the OddsShopper model for the under on his 5.5 strikeouts prop. The best line is the +130 currently available at DraftKings, which is key since there is just a 46% probability of Fedde falling below half a dozen strikeouts.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +119 “true odds,” so the +130 line brings a festive 5.0% expected ROI.
We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with shops like Fliff all the way down at +105 for a -6% ROI, while Unibet and BetRivers are at -103, which is just ridiculous with a negative 10% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Fedde does project for around six strikeouts, and, of course, the Mariners are the most K-happy team in the league. It will be interesting to see which side wins out tonight, but that +130 line makes it favorable to ride with Seattle.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
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Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Monday, June 10
There are no current weather issues in the forecast, though it is worth one last doublecheck with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
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