Monday brings a fresh week with the MLB featured contests locking at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel.. Yahoo is reaching forward to snag the two earlier games, so contests will lock at 6:35 p.m. ET. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to George Kirby and Brady Singer squaring off in Seattle as top pitching options, while the Guardians and Padres are the appealing stacks.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 13
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP George Kirby vs. Kansas City Royals — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $9,400 | Yahoo $48
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool likes the looks of Monday’s slate, with ample pitching options at a variety of price points. Matchups are playing a large part in providing a plethora of options, but there are talented arms in the mix as well. Last year RHP George Kirby was a revelation for the Mariners, making the All-Star Game and finishing eighth in the American League Cy Young Award race. The 26-year-old led the league with a miniscule 0.9 walks per nine innings, and he is close again this season with 1.0 per nine.
Kirby has just enough strikeout ability to coax around one per inning from the Royals, and his 43% ground ball rate should help mitigate the Kansas City power bats. It is also going to be in the upper-50s during the game, with a light 8 to 12 mph breeze in from left field, which will help the pitchers.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Brady Singer at Seattle Mariners — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $9,300 | Yahoo $40
The active roster for the Seattle Mariners leads the league with a 29.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Even better for opposing righties, there is no tradeoff for power as this crew has a collective .132 ISO. The team has 45 home runs, which is the 10th most in the league, but it has the third-fewest total extra-base hits for the season.
RHP Brady Singer is a solid pitcher, but this season he has been incredible with one or fewer runs in six of his eight starts, allowing two and five in the other two. The 27-year-old is also approaching a personal best with 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings, which are well above his 7.5 last season and above his 8.5 career rate. The only knock against him is for FanDuel, as Singer has just three quality starts and those bonus points are crucial on the blue site. To his credit, he has closed the book on the fifth inning in every appearance, but the increased strikeouts have cost him some efficiency on his pitch count.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Spencer Arrighetti vs. Oakland Athletics — 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,200 | FanDuel $7,300 | Yahoo $27
For those willing to take a walk on the wild side, RHP Spencer Arrighetti is popping in the Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool, as the best fantasy point-per-dollar option on DraftKings and Yahoo. The rookie is the 11th-ranked prospect in the Houston organization, and while he is not on any industry lists, he does have a solid strikeout profile. He ran into the Bronx buzzsaw in his last start, surrendering a trio of taters in Yankee Stadium on Wednesday.
This matchup is fraught with peril as the Oakland offense has plenty of power, but the A’s also have the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed hurlers (24.3%). There is merit to having the Athletics as a cheap secondary stack, so this is the proverbial “both-sideser” situation. The alternative discount dandy would be RHP Randy Vasquez in San Diego taking on the Rockies.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Cleveland Guardians at RHP Michael Lorenzen — 4.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the Guardians for a third consecutive day, with another strong matchup against RHP Michael Lorenzen. In his last four starts, the 32-year-old has allowed five home runs and struck out only 19 across 24 innings. In this stretch opposing teams have a stellar .830 OPS, saddling the hurler with a 5.63 ERA and 5.64 FIP.
Bo Naylor should be in the lineup after getting a rest day on Sunday, and he, brother Josh Naylor and switch-hitting maestro Jose Ramirez form the core of a talented stack. The defending World Champions have a mediocre bullpen, which bodes well for the Guardians. Andres Gimenez and Will Brennan can be used to round out full stacks. Even with the roof closed, Globe Life Field has proven to be an above-average venue for home runs over the last two seasons.
Late Slate Primary Target: San Diego Padres vs. RHP Dakota Hudson — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
This is a horrible matchup for RHP Dakota Hudson, who has been a disaster this season after being only dismal last year. In his seven starts, he has allowed multiple walks on six occasions. Things are so bad, the ground ball specialist actually has two more walks than he does strikeouts. The only silver lining is that he has allowed only three home runs. The Padres power is all concentrated with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth, but the entire lineup consists of excellent hitters who put a lot of balls in play. Hudson has failed to reach the fifth inning in three of his last four starts, so that means the heavily worked Colorado bullpen will be put to the test tonight.
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Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Today we can back switch-hitter Ian Happ in the sports wagering world for his home run prop, which is currently available on FanDuel at +800. Though this, of course, is a longshot wager, the FanDuel line is standing out as so ridiculous, we need to take advantage with a little sprinkling of funds for entertainment purposes.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +688 “true odds,” so the +800 currently posted provides a crazy 17.2% expected ROI. We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with book DraftKings and Fanatics providing +500 lines and Fliff all the way down at +430.
RHP Reynaldo Lopez is slated to start tonight, and his success in a return to a starting role has been otherworldly. In 2019 he led the league with a whopping 110 earned runs, and his metrics were even worse during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. In 2021 he split time between the rotation and the bullpen, ultimately becoming a full-time reliever. Last season he pitched for three different teams, so Atlanta is his fourth stop in one year’s time.
Lefties have always been an issue, and while Happ is not the prototypical slugger, he has enough pop to pay off this wager when considering an extended time horizon.
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Final Thoughts for Monday, May 13 — MLB DFS Picks
Weather should not dramatically impact anything for Monday, aside from an elevated risk of precipitation in Chicago. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 5:00 p.m. ET brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.
