MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 27
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
The Batters of Birdland will be back in this article series many times going forward this season, but today we are backing the ace of the Motor City Kitties.
Across the last six games, Baltimore has scored only 12 runs, lucking into a single solitary 2-1 in Washington to salvage a series sweep at the hands of the Nationals. Yesterday it plated only five combined runners in the doubleheader with RHPs Keider Montero and Casey Mize toeing the rubber.
The dichotomy between that duo and Skubal will be stark, which only serves as an additional advantage for the southpaw. Across the last 943 batters he faced, Skubal had a 29.4% combined strikeout rate and a terrific .105 ISO, aided by an above-average 45.3% ground ball rate. The ability to get hitters out at the dish himself is key, plus with all the ground balls, the defense can help him keep too many runners from staying on the basepaths.
The O’s have solid veteran role players at the bottom of the order in Ramon Laureano, Gary Sanchez and Ramon Urias, who each have can hold their own with the platoon advantage, though that is against all lefties, not just the best of the best.
The Nats have won five of their last eight games, which is fun for the fans who have not had much to be excited about since the 2019 World Series Championship. In this stretch, Washington tallied more than four runs three times, with the highlight of a 12-spot in Coors Field last Saturday.
Last year, RHP Tylor Megill took a major step forward as he was shuffled between The Show and the farm system. He was called up for good in late August, finishing with 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings for the season in 78 big league innings. Walks are his main struggle with 3.96 per nine in his 204.1 MLB frames prior to this season. He has been right around there in hit five starts, though he at least has avoided too many extra-base hits and pushed his strikeout rate to nearly 11.0 per nine. It is going to be in the mid-60s this afternoon in our nation’s capital with a stiff 15 to 20 mph breeze coming in from left field.
The Mariners were yesterday’s contrarian stack, and they came through in style with 14 runs. The team has put up eight or more runs in five of the last eight games, though two were in extra innings and all but last night were on the road. The away splits for Seattle are sizable, with their home park being consistently the most pitching-friendly venue in the league. The bottom of the order is bereft of power and contact, plus Dylan Moore, JP Crawford and Miles Mastrobuoni can all be coaxed into strikeouts without too much effort.
The salary algorithms across the main MLB DFS sites are giving RHP Max Meyer the ace treatment, which should further push gamers towards Glasnow or even Meyer’s counterpart RHP Bryce Miller, who is on the bump for the M’s.
Meyer is not as good as his 12.3 strikeouts, 2.1 walks and 0.90 home runs per nine innings in the early going of this season, but the main projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat, etc.) do like him for something close to a strikeout per nine innings, with his walks and power a little above league average. If he continues to keep his ground ball rate around 50% (which is at 51.7% in his 93 career innings), he will be a solid pitcher for the next half decade, making good on his No. 2 Miami prospect ranking. That also had him just inside the top 80 on most industry sheets last year.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Minnesota Twins
This is not a recommendation against New York by any stretch since it seems to have moved on from the #LOLMets days, but it may not be the cakewalk it appears. Match the field and ride with one-offs, but there is another gem with potential in Minnesota, particularly on DraftKings, which is not including the Coors Field Extravaganza in their featured tournaments.
The Twins just had Matt Wallner and Luke Keaschall join Willi Castro and Royce Lewis on the injured list, which is why they are looking less formidable on paper. To be clear, this is a secondary stack, though one that is definitely underrepresented in tournaments.
Byron Buxton is the only player getting any respect from the salary algorithms, which means we can easily average down the overall cost with the hitters surrounding him at the top of the order in Carlos Correa, Trevor Larnach and leadoff man Edouard Julien, who will be at the top of the order with a righty on the mound. He had a whopping four walks on Friday, coming around to score three times before sitting out yesterday’s action.
The Angels have had issues with their bullpen, and over the last three days, they have sent two relievers back to the minors and designated two more for waivers. There will be fresh arms with the better options such as 37-year-old closer Kenley Jansen, LHP Brock Burke and RHP Ryan Zeferjahn, but they are only the “better options” because they survived the recent purge.
This was a roundabout way to get to RHP Jose Soriano, but it is important information for the context of going so deep down the Top Stacks rankings. Soriano was a top-10 prospect for the Halos, though the now 26-year-old never really was on the league’s radar. He was solid as a rookie reliever, but Los Angeles is desperate for arms, so they put him in the rotation for 20 of his 22 appearances last year. Over the last season-plus, he has 7.54 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.74 walks per nine. He has limited power but not contact, and he covers for his marginal strikeout stuff by inducing ground balls.
That was fruitful over his last four starts, with a whopping 28 hits, 12 walks and 14 earned runs in just 22 innings, leading to a 5.73 ERA and 4.91 FIP. He made the 100 batters he faced in this stretch look like a composite All-Star bat with a .318/.400/.455 triple-slash line, which compares favorably to former Angel Shohei Ohtani this season, who has a .277/.365/.525 triple-slash line in 101 at-bats.
Main Slate Primary Target: Athletics
Martin is a ground baller who eats innings, and the 28-year-old will probably kick around the league for at least another half decade on cheap contracts. That is the perfect pitcher to target, so file that away as his next two starts are going to be against Houston and in Kansas City. If we are lucky, he will also be on the mound a month from now in Cincinnati’s Great American SMALLpark.
Light morning rain is going to give way to a cooler and cloudy afternoon, but we have seen that while Sutter Health Park is indeed the most pitching-friendly venue in the Pacific Coast League (PCL), it is above average for MLB hitters in a small 13-game sample size. The A’s pitching has allowed 6.07 runs per game in its temporary home, while the offense has accounted for 4.31 runs, giving a combined double-digit park rate.
Look to the top 6, with the preferred order of preference (factoring in price, projection and positional eligibility) being Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers, Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday and then eighter Luis Urias for differentiation at the bottom of the order or Jacob Wilson for contact and being likely to have runners on base when he is at the plate.
Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Benintendi and Andrew Vaughn are fine options from the ChiSox as one-offs or a contrarian trio. Enjoy!
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take the Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 run line in the second game of the doubleheader, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
The second game of the doubleheader is going to pit RHP Chris Bassitt against RHP Clarke Schmidt, with LHP Max Fried currently slated to start the early game for New York. If this is the case, then the value of the +1.5 run line for Toronto is one to sprinkle a little cheddar on for some extra entertainment value.
