The Sunday action is underway at 1:05 p.m. ET lock on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before diving into our MLB DFS picks, we’ll utilize Stokastic’s tools to identify today’s top MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Kevin Gausman and Brandon Pfaadt in strong matchups, with some afternoon intrigue in Ronel Blanco and Joey Estes. Texas and Atlanta are the key offenses for the early action, with the Oakland A’s a spicy afternoon attack, with some Houston hitters sprinkled in for good measure.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 21
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR vs. DET)
Blue Jays vs. Tigers – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:37 p.m. ET
$8,800 at DraftKings
$9,500 at FanDuel
$41 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has ranked RHP Kevin Gausman as one of the better point-per-dollar options, in his matchup against Detroit. The 33-year-old is also going to be one of the most popular pitchers on DraftKings and Yahoo, where gamers are required to roster two per lineup. Fortunately, there are ample opportunities for pivots at a variety of salary levels.
Gausman’s fastball (94.6 mph) is down a tick from the last five seasons, which also has him with only 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings when he had averaged 11.87 in his 713.2 innings since the start of his 2019 campaign. Additionally his home run rate is up to 1.3 per nine innings, while it was just under one in the prior five years.
Luckily, while Detroit is in the middle of the pack for total bases and runs scored, the Tigers are in the bottom third of the league for home runs while striking out at a top-10 rate. The Motor City Kitties have only four or five competent hitters, which should help pave the way for a strong performance from Gausman this afternoon.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Brandon Pfaadt (ARI at CHC)
Diamondbacks at Cubs – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
$8,300 at DraftKings
$8,500 at FanDuel
$41 at Yahoo
Chicago entered the All-Star Break on an 8-3 heater, scoring a stellar 61 runs. Sadly, it seems the bats are still on vacation, as the team has plated just two runners in the last two games. Heck, the Cubbies gave up a career-high nine — yes, NINE — strikeouts to RHP Ryne Nelson on Friday.
This season RHP Brandon Pfaadt has made great strides in his pitching approach, cutting his home run rate nearly in half to a reasonable 1.1 per nine innings. Though his strikeouts are down a little, he is solid at 8.3 per nine innings while improving his control with just 2.1 walks per nine. The revised strategy has seen him raise his ground ball rate from 32% to 40%, which has enabled him to pitch deeper into games. This has resulted in him closing out the sixth inning in 11 of his last 14 (78%) appearances, which also keeps him in line for a quality start, which is key on FanDuel, where bonus points are awarded for this achievement.
Late Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Joey Estes (OAK vs. LAA)
Athletics vs. Angels – 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
$6,500 at DraftKings
$7,500 at FanDuel
$33 at Yahoo
Sunday has a very thin two-game late slate on DraftKings and FanDuel, while Yahoo is also including ESPN Sunday Night Baseball to increase the player pool. Fortunately, the next three Sundays will bring three- or four-game sets, which makes things a little more interesting. There is still strategy to be had, particularly when selecting pitchers.
Most gamers will be going with RHP Ronel Blanco, which makes sense since he has a matchup with the Mariners, who lead the league in strikeouts while plating the third-fewest runners. Blanco started out the season with a no-hitter, and even though he will turn 31 next month, he has produced a strong campaign. He has ceded two runs or fewer in 14 of 18 (78%) starts, and eight of his last 11 runs allowed have been via solo shots. Yes, he has been a little lucky with keeping the bases clean, but he also has the fifth-best ERA (2.56) and seventh-lowest WHIP (0.971) among qualified starters.
On the other end of the age range is RHP Joey Estes, who is just 22 years old. Estes came over from Atlanta, along with Shea Langeliers, Cristian Pache and Ryan Cusick as part of the Matt Olson deal. After being selected in the 16th round of the 2019 MLB Draft out of high school, Estes has worked his way up through each level of the minors. Though he was only the 14th-ranked prospect for Oakland, he does project as a back-of-the-rotation starter.
The command is good, but the strikeout stuff is lacking, leaving the young hurler to induce batters into fly balls that are just not quite hit squarely. That can lead to some adventures, such as allowing eight runs in Boston two weeks ago, six in Minnesota last month and eight in Houston in his second outing of the season. This will be the third time he has squared off against the Angles, but he did have a complete game shutout on July 3 in Oakland. Clearly the ballpark and matchup matter, so with both aligning in his favor, Estes makes for an intriguing option this afternoon.
For more tips on using the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup analysis, take a look at Steve Buzzard’s guide on how to use simulations to enhance your lineup study process!
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Texas Rangers
Rangers vs. Orioles – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:35 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Dean Kremer
DK Top Stack %: 7.9%
FD Top Stack %: 8.2%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the Rangers this afternoon in their matchup against RHP Dean Kremer. The 28-year-old has been on the struggle bus for his last five starts, allowing 20 runs in 23.1 innings. Three of these outings have been after spending six weeks on the injured reserve with a strained right triceps.
He was activated after three rehabilitation starts that saw him cede 14 runs in just 8.2 innings. Baltimore is desperate for pitching with Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells all out for the season, so the Orioles are electing to let Kremer work through things in real-time. The defending World Series champion Rangers have not even come close to their 5.4 runs per game of last season, but the team has at least been frisky over the last 15 games, with 4.9 runs, compared to their 4.3 average for the season.
Josh Jung and Evan Carter are still on the injured reserve, but the rest of the team is healthy, and with Marcus Semien doing work from the leadoff spot, young Wyatt Langford getting better every week, and Corey Seager, Nate Lowe, Josh Smith and Adolis Garcia all on mini-heaters, this could be a long or short afternoon for Kremer, depending on one’s perspective.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Atlanta Braves
Braves vs. Cardinals – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Miles Mikolas
DK Top Stack %: 8.4%
FD Top Stack %: 8.8%
The last five starts for RHP Miles Mikolas have been something out of a horror show, with 22 runs allowed in 28 innings. On the bright side, he has issued only three free passes, but that is because batters are just waiting for their pitch, with 37 base knocks in this timeframe. Mikolas has never been one for strikeouts, but with only 13 in the last month, it looks like the end is nigh for the soon-to-be 36-year-old.
Even with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris II on the injured list, Atlanta still has an All-Star-laden lineup with Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Marcel Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia, and both catchers Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud. Jarred Kelenic has been solid with the change in scenery, and the team has brought back Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario to recapture the magic of the 2023 playoff run that ended in the National League Division Series with a 3-1 loss to Philadelphia.
The focus should be on Olson, Ozuna, Riley and Albies, but the point is that there are several other viable stacking options. Kelenic and whoever is behind the plate are in the second wave, with Rosario, Duvall and Arcia being the discount dandies at the bottom of the order.
late Slate Primary Target: Oakland Athletics
Athletics vs. Angels – 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Carson Fulmer
DK Top Stack %: 23.3%
FD Top Stack %: 22.9%
Over the last 10 games, Oakland has been wildly productive with 86 runs, including totals of 19, 18 and 13. Obviously the A’s are on everyone’s radar, but it is fun to see them surging up the scoring list, with 21% of their total runs coming in the last fortnight.
This afternoon 30-year-old RHP Carson Fulmer will draw the start, and in his last two outings he has tallied 7.2 innings and a solid 12 strikeouts, allowing only two runs. Lefties tend to give him fits, which bodes well for Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday and Seth Brown. Brent Rooker, Zack Gelof and catcher Shea Langeliers are the next trio to target, though mini-stacks are probably the way to go this afternoon in the hopes of catching lightning in a bottle twice on the short slate.
Houston does not have an easy matchup against RHP Bryan Woo, but the young Seattle hurler has been dealing with various maladies that have impacted his durability and stamina. He has been on the injured reserve twice and also had a turn in the rotation skipped as well. The low team total for Houston is going to push gamers towards the Athletics, but Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Joey Loperfido all profile well against Woo.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
This afternoon, RHP Brandon Pfaadt looks like a strong DFS option, but we can also hedge out some of the risk by looking to go against him on the sports wagering world.
Currently, the under on his 5.5 strikeouts stands out on FanDuel where it is available at +120 odds.
New users on FanDuel can receive $200 in bonus bets, by wagering $5 on the first bet and winning. See details here.
OddsShopper shows this wager has 113 “true odds” for Pfaadt to stay under six strikeouts, which brings a steady 3.4% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Pinnacle all the way down at a -103 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 7% expected ROI.
As detailed above, Pfaadt has seen a decrease in his strikeout rate from 8.8 in his rookie season to 8.3 this year. That is still solid, but looking at his recent game logs, we can see there is inconsistency with four, six, eight, two, zero, eight, five, eight and five whiffs in his last nine outings, eight of which saw him on the mound in the sixth inning.
The projected lineup for Chicago has a 22.8% strikeout rate and a strong .167 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of last year. Five hitters also have a 9% walk rate or greater, which could help Pfaadt burn through some of his pitches prior to reaching his sixth strikeout.
Other wagers continuously appear and disappear every few minutes as lineups are announced, making it crucial to have an OddsShopper Premium subscription to seize all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Sunday, July 21
It is worth keeping tabs on Minnesota and Kansas City in the Midwest, with some potential for precipitation. Before making any MLB DFS picks, be sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for updates as the first pitch approaches.
To finalize your MLB DFS picks for the day’s slate, watch the Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show at 12:00 p.m. ET, sponsored by DraftKings Pick6. New users can click this link to get $50 with their first $5 play!
