Sunday finishes off the weekend with an 11-game slate locking at 1:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel, while Yahoo goes with a three-game late slate for its largest contests. Today we’ll explore MLB DFS projections and utilize Stokastic’s tools to find out how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers and create optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Framber Valdez and Shota Imanaga as core pitchers, while the Baltimore Orioles and the Kansas City Royals provide stacking opportunities for today’s featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 18
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Framber Valdez (HOU vs. CHW)
Astros vs. White Sox – 2.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
$8,900 at DraftKings
$10,600 at FanDuel
$51 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool does not feel bad for the White Sox, who managed to score just one run last night against RHP Hunter Brown. This afternoon they will essentially be facing the exact opposite pitcher in LHP Framber Valdez, who delights fantasy gamers with his 60% ground ball rate while also striking out over eight batters per nine innings.
The active roster for Chicago has a 78 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes variables, such as ball park effect, to create a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100), against lefties this season, indicating they are creating runs 22% less efficiently than league average, and only Miami has been worse. The projected lineup for the ChiSox has a 25% strikeout rate against lefties, with a sub-.100 ISO. Enjoy!
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC vs. TOR)
Cubs vs. Blue Jays – 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
$9,400 at DraftKings
$9,400 at FanDuel
$47 at Yahoo
This has been a solid “rookie” campaign for RHP Shota Imanaga, who will be turning 31 years old in two weeks. He is usually able to close out the sixth inning, which keeps in him the mix for a quality start, and that, of course, is crucial for the bonus points on FanDuel.
The current iteration of the Toronto offense is in the bottom third of the league against lefties from a scoring-efficiency perspective with a 95 wRC+. However, the team does have a strong 10.2% walk rate and a disciplined 20.2% strikeout rate against southpaws. Of course, the back end of the Blue Jays roster is filled with unproven hitters like Leo Jimenez, Addison Barger, Will Wagner and Brian Seven. That combined with a 12 to 17 mph breeze coming in from left field should have Imanaga in a strong position to keep the Jays in check, with a good chance at the win as well given the Cubs are -195 moneyline favorites at home.
Late Slate Pitching Target: LHP Blake Snell (SF at OAK)
Giants at Athletics – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
$9,800 at DraftKings
$10,500 at FanDuel
$58 at Yahoo
There are only two games on the late slate for DraftKings and FanDuel, while Yahoo is also including ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, featuring the Detroit Tigers and LHP Tarik Skubal facing the New York Yankees in Williamsport, Pa., as part of the festivities surrounding the Little League World Series.
Naturally, LHP Blake Snell is the obvious play among the limited starting pitchers, though there is enough of a discount for RHP Charlie Morton that the 40-year-old is in contention as an alternate choice.
Oakland has been solid against southpaws, with a 116 wRC+ this season, and the active roster is also boasting a .209 ISO, though consistently getting runners on base in front of the power has been an issue. The A’s will be putting out a righty-laden lineup, though Snell should be up for the task, having struck out 31.6% of the last 851 opposite-handed batsmen squaring off against him.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Orioles vs. Red Sox – 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Kutter Crawford
DK Top Stack %: 6.8%
FD Top Stack %: 6.5%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool likes the matchup for Baltimore against RHP Kutter Crawford, even on FanDuel where the Coors Field Extravaganza has been included in the featured slate. The Orioles lead the league in home runs and total bases and check in with the third-most runs scored, trailing the Diamondbacks and Yankees.
Crawford did not allow a home run against the Texas Rangers in his last start after ceding 13 in his four preceding appearances. Over the last five games, he has a 9.75 ERA, 9.38 FIP and 5.43 xFIP. Yes, the home runs are making these numbers ugly, but that is not anything new, with the 28-year-old allowing multiple round-trippers in six of his last 12 starts. His strikeouts have also fallen off since the All-Star Break from 8.84 per nine innings down to 7.13 per nine. Even more damning is the .203 ISO posted by the last 544 lefties who have faced Crawford.
Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser are the trio to target at the top of the order, with Ryan O’Hearn in play but always a pinch-hit risk. On the flipside, Boston has just two lefty relievers, though Brennan Bernardino has worked each of the last two days and three of the last four. That leaves Bailey Horn, who was not used on Saturday but saw action on Thursday and Friday.
Rookie Jackson Holliday had a four-hit game on Friday, which was highlighted by a triple. He is in play, along with fellow lefty Cedric Mullins. It was not that long ago that Mullins manned the heart of the order; the revamping of the Baltimore offense the last two seasons has been something to behold. Keep in mind that switch-hitting catcher Adley Rutschman has been better this season from the right side of the plate, so skipping him is an easy way to gain differentiation from some Baltimore stacks.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Kansas City Royals
Royals at Reds – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Andrew Abbott
DK Top Stack %: 9.1%
FD Top Stack %: 9.2%
To quickly touch on the Houston stacks, the Astros are hosting rookie LHP Ky Bush, who has a whopping 12 walks in his two starts in The Show, spanning 8.2 innings. Walks have been an issue throughout his minor league stops, making him a prime, albeit easy, pitcher to target this afternoon.
Houston is without Alex Bregman (elbow), and Kyle Tucker has had a slow rehabilitation process from his bruised shin that shelved him in early June. That, along with the search for someone to replace Jose Abreu (who was DFA’d for dismal performance), has led to Shay Whitcomb and Zach Dezenzo being called up from the minors. This duo is available at sub-$3,000 salaries on both DraftKings and FanDuel, helping to render the salary cap moot this afternoon.
Now on to Kansas City. This afternoon the Royals will be facing enigmatic LHP Andrew Abbott and his Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde pitching profile. In three of his last seven outings, Abbott allowed a grand total of three runs (two unearned) in 20.1 combined innings against the Cardinals, Nationals and Rockies. In the other four starts, Abbott was hammered for eight longballs and 17 runs in 16.2 innings. In total, this works out to a 5.4 ERA, 6.17 FIP and 4.93 xFIP across 30 innings.
The top of the Kansas City lineup is well suited for stacking against lefties. Superstar Bobby Witt Jr. sits behind only Shohei Ohtani on DraftKings and is the most expensive hitter on FanDuel and Yahoo. The 24-year-old leads the league in hits and runs while notching 25 homers and 25 steals, leaving him well positioned for a second consecutive 30/30 season.
After Witt, veteran Salvador Perez is still getting it done with a .383 wOBA and .214 ISO in 103 plate appearances versus lefties this season. Hunter Renfroe and his light-tower power play well in any venue, plus he was with the Reds for a 14-game stint last year, so at least he has extra experience in Great American Ballpark. Mikael Garcia should be leading off, and the youngster already has a career-high 30 steals while landing one RBI shy of his personal best.
Last but not least is Vinnie Pasquantino, who has shown he can knock the cover off the ball in same-handed matchups when he can get his bat on the ball. The back of the order is nothing special, with Freddy Fermin in play as a punt catcher and Paul DeJong as a lottery ticket.
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Late Slate Primary Target: San Francisco Giants
Giants at Athletics – 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP JP Sears
DK Top Stack %: 19.1%
FD Top Stack %: 18.9%
This year the San Francisco offense has been the most effective in the league against lefties. The current roster has a ridiculous 146 wRC+ versus southpaws, making the amazing iterations of the Houston Astros seem downright pedestrian.
This season has been merely average for JP Sears, who has seen his strikeouts drop from 8.41 per nine innings to just 6.82 in his 24 starts. He has lowered his home run rate while inducing more ground balls, but he otherwise is a back-of-the-rotation starter.
Heliot Ramos (.516 wOBA, .388 ISO, 97 plate appearances) has been amazing with the platoon advantage, as has young upstart Tyler Fitzgerald (.395 wOBA, .262 ISO, 91 PAs). It is no surprise that veteran Matt Chapman (.368 wOBA, .218 ISO, 142 PAs) and Mark Canha (.357 wOBA, .138 ISO, 104 PAs) are getting it done against lefties once again. Plus both are very familiar with Oakland Coliseum, having each spent half a decade or more with the Athletics.
Casey Schmitt is also in the mix as a differentiation option, even from the bottom of the order. We can’t forget that aspect of the wraparound stack since the other targets are likely to be the first four names on the lineup card.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Shout out to RHP Ben Lively for working his way back to The Show after three seasons in the KBO. However, he is someone to target in the sports wagering world for the under on his 4.5 strikeouts.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on FanDuel where it is available at -122 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -137 “true odds” for the 32-year-old baseball vagabond to fall below five strikeouts.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Fliff posting a -170 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 8% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
This afternoon, Lively projects for 4.6 strikeouts against the Milwaukee Brewers, though that is still below the five needed for this wager to fail. In his last 13 starts, Lively has recorded one, two, four, six, two, seven, four, six, four, six, five, four, four, one and four strikeouts. Showing those raw results is key since it helps underscore just what a 19.8% strikeout rate really looks like.
The projected lineup for the Brewers has a 22.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season but also a strong 8.6% walk rate and a fair amount of power. Even without Christian Yelich for the last 22 games, Milwaukee is averaging 4.9 runs per tilt, which is just inside the top 10 for this period.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Sunday, Aug. 18
There are several venues that warrant monitoring on Sunday. Philadelphia will have rain, Baltimore is likely to have rain, and Chicago, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh all have a non-zero chance of in-game precipitation. Before locking in your MLB DFS picks, be sure to visit the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time nears.
