MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | March 29
Editor’s note: Limited Time Offer
From now until April 3, for merely a dollar (less than a sip of coffee), you can sign up for ANY of our MLB DFS packages while using the promo code CYCLE.
It is a deal that will only last for a very short period of time, so DFS fanatics should get in on the action while we’re offering what will easily be our best MLB DFS deal of the season.
Don’t miss out on this deal as the sports action heats up!
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
The typical season long models (Steamer, ZiPS, The Bat, etc.) are expecting another uptick in his strikeouts to 8.7 per nine innings, though his home run rate of 1.13 across his initial 311.2 frames has been lucky, so that is trending up as well, to a still palatable 1.25 per nine. The FanDuel salary algorithm is giving Miller the ace treatment, with Yahoo not far behind, with a similar cap hit as Yoshinobu Yamamoto from yesterday.
The Athletics are going to be a team to pick on, though they will also be a frequent recommended stack, particularly if the leverage against the opposing pitcher is too lofty. On Friday, the nomadic batsmen popped off for five runs after starter Luis Castillo left the game, holding the A’s to a pair of runs across five innings. Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker, catcher Shea Langoliers and Tyler Soderstrom all have .200+ ISOs against right-handed pitching, though the tradeoff is a collective strikeout rate that is north of 25%. Miller does have trouble with lefty power, so for those gamers looking to do some home run hunting, Butler, Sodersrom and JJ Bleday fit the bill.
To be clear, full-stacks are going to be wildly boom or bust for the Athletics, with the roster not being consistent with getting runners on base. This makes them a fun secondary stack and of course we could see some pinball scoring when they are back in their “home park” which is being shared with the Sacramento Rivercats of the Pacific Coast League.
Sasaki has four seasons in the NPB, making 64 starts for the Chiba Lotte Marines. In high school, Sasaki set a Japanese record with a 101 mph fastball. Naturally that record had been held by now teammate Shohei Ohtani. In an interesting twist, Chiba Lotte held Sasaki out of the 2020 season, after making him the top selection in the 2019 Nippon Professional Baseball Draft. The intent was to protect his arm and to allow Sasaki’s strength and stamina to continue to mature. He stands at a solid 6’2″ and 185 pounds, though that is far from the other imposing mound presences of other MLB aces.
The 23-year-old logged seven spring training innings, with three more in the Tokyo Series. There is definitely going to be a learning curve, though a matchup against Detroit is far better on paper than what he dealt with against the Chicago Cubs, in his home country. The Tigers pushed the Dodgers to extra innings last night, though the two 10th inning runs by the Motor City Kitties were quickly overshadowed by a three-run Mookie Betts round-tripper, securing the win for the boys in blue.
There are some promising youngsters in the Detroit lineup, though depth, consistence and experience are lacking. The Tigers are the top value stack, which is no surprise given the preceding sentence, while also presenting a middle of the pack “stack score” on the main MLB DFS sites. This is a “both-sideser” (H/T to TMcB for that term), especially with only six-games on the featured docket. Baseball is a fickle sport and with Sasaki projecting as the most popular pitcher tonight, direct leverage can be employed against the rest of the field.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Mets
The top of the New York lineup is brimming with power, with switch-hitting maestro Franciso Lindor leading off and $765 million man Juan Soto slotted in the two-hole. They are followed by bopper-extraordinaire Pete Alonso, with the oft-overlooked and perpetually underrated Brandon Nimmo batting cleanup.
But wait … there’s more … Mark Vientos showed tremendous power last year, banishing higher rated prospect Brett Baty to the minors. Vientos has a wicked .251 ISO in his last 315 plate appearances against fellow-righties, which bodes well with Arrighetti ceding a .196 ISO to same-handed hitters.
The bottom of the order is still respectable, with the well travelled duo of Jesse Winker and Tyrone Taylor, who funny enough were both with Milwaukee in 2023.
These are no longer the #LOLMets and with The Masses flocking to the opposite side of this matchup against RHP Griffin “Tomato” Canning, New York is looking a little underrepresented in tournaments as a full-stack. For those who do not believe in Arrighetti, his under 5.5 strikeout prop is at “even money” on DraftKings. Which rates out with a 33.3% historical and 5.2% expected ROI. Currently he projects for right around that median mark, though if you think he has trouble with the selective power bats of the Mets, this is one way to take advantage of a short outing.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Boston Red Sox
Now in his age-30 campaign, Mahle is in a “prove it” situation, while also coming off a rough spring training that saw him with only 7.4 strikeouts, but 1.6 home runs per nine, across 17 innings. Boston is loaded with lefty power, which is where savvy gamers will start. Rafael Devers is one of the best hitters in the league, though this season he has plenty of protection with the acquisition of Alex Bregman, improvement of Triston Casas and health of Trevor Story. Casas is no stranger for those who have followed the budding slugger’s improvements, but Wilyer Abreu remains a hidden gem, even with a pair of round-trippers on Opening Day. Add in leadoff man Jarren Duran with this duo and Devers, to form a potent quartet that is viable in all game formats.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
In the DFS world, Christian Walker is going to be popular, as are his Houston teammates in a home matchup against RHP Griffin “Tomato” Canning.
The Portfolio EV model has the former Arizona bopper projected for 1.7 total bases, which looks great on FanDuel, where the over 1.5 is currently available at +145.
Factoring in the various variables, we can see that Portfolio EV shows this wager has +139 “true odds,” which brings forth a decent 2.4% expected ROI. Keep in mind that the negative -25.7% historical ROI is taking into account how hard it is to actually hit a baseball.
Picking our spot here with Walker, who has a .353 wOBA and .252 ISO in his last 393 plate appearances against same-handed hurlers is key. It is also notable that Canning has a woeful 18.1% strikeout rate, a .179 ISO and a history of struggling against same-handed batsmen.
It can be tricky to get enough Walker in your DFS “player portfolio” today, with so many excellent first base options. Heading to the betting market is another way to take advantage of this matchup, without missing out on the upside. With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
