MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 23
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
This will be the fourth time that RHP Hunter Brown has faced the Mariners, though the most recent matchup was over two months ago. Since the start of August, the 26-year-old has had one game where he allowed more than two runs. In these eight games, the frontline starter has compiled a 2.25 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 3.37 xFIP, 45 strikeouts and only 13 walks across 48 innings.
The M’s lead the league with a 27% strikeout rate while averaging a scant 4.12 runs per game, which is above the dregs but not by much. Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, Jorge Polanco and Luke Raley have a collective 29% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, which plays right into the strength of Brown.
Of course, with Arizona positioned for another run at the World Series, the Diamondbacks are happy to have Rodriguez peaking at the right time. In his last two starts, he has recorded 18 strikeouts, including 11 in Coors Field last Wednesday.
San Francisco continues to be pesky, but the projected lineup has four batsmen with a 29.2% strikeout rate or higher against left-handed pitching this season. The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be closed for this series, which gives a slight boost to pitchers.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
However, the 23-year-old is still in need of more polish, having started the season in Double-A, getting two starts at Triple-A and then making it to The Show.
Walks have been an issue for Birdsong with 5.46 per nine innings, even outpacing his 4.05 to 4.41 per nine as estimated by ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat, etc. Three weeks ago, Birdsong handed out five walks to the Diamondbacks in San Francisco, and he has issued 16 free passes in his last 25.2 innings.
Power is not an problem for Arizona, with six hitters in the projected lineup posting a .200 ISO or higher against right-handed pitchers this season. Joc Pederson (.403 wOBA, .257 ISO, 388 plate appearances) and Pavin Smith (.400 wOBA, .283 ISO, 123 PAs) have been particularly effective.
Then, of course, there are stalwarts such as Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Christian Walker who check all the DFS boxes. Depending on your DFS site of choice, veteran slugger Eugenio Suarez and speedster Jake McCarthy are potential discount dandies.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Boston Red Sox
While the venerable veteran has struck out a hitter per inning for just the second time of his career, he is also allowing 1.43 baserunners per inning, which is his highest rate since 2014, when he had 29.2 innings as a rookie with the Chicago White Sox.
Rafael Devers is out with a shoulder injury, but there are still several appealing BoSox bats. Masataka Yoshida has a nice personal history against Bassitt, with Triston Casas, Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu rounding out the key stacking components.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
RHP Hayden Birdsong is someone to go after in both the DFS market and in the sports wagering world. Again, to be clear, he has talent, it is just a lack of experience above Double-A that is holding him back.
The Portfolio EV model has the 23-year-old hurler for around 4.6 strikeouts tonight, which is a little higher than the 4.5 strikeouts being offered across various sportsbooks.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Hard Rock where it is available at -105 odds.
Portfolio EV shows this wager has -107 “true odds,” and while that is a slim ROI, this is still a favorable wager.
We can see that Pinnacle has a punitive -120 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 5% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Birdsong has gotten extra rest in between most of his last season starts, which makes sense as this is the first time he has cleared 100 innings as a professional. The Giants have nothing to play for, so if Birdsong is laboring or just doesn’t have it tonight, he could get a quick hook. That combines nicely with a tough matchup and is yet another path towards the young hurler exiting the game prior to recording his fifth strikeout.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
