MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 2
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
The power numbers look good for Colorado since half of their games are played in Coors Field, though the first six hitters in the projected lineup had a 26.9% or higher strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers last year. That doesn’t include Nick Martini (23.9%, 142 plate appearances), who is likely to bat seventh, and Jordan Beck (35.3%, 139 PAs) as the probable cleanup hitter. There is not much else to add other than it is clear that gamers will be there, with Wheeler projecting for nearly 70% representation on DraftKings and 50% on FanDuel for the four-game featured slate.
The weather is favorable in New York with temperatures in the low-40s and an 8 to 12 mph breeze in from right field, which is the bonus for Rodon. No hitter on Baltimore has seen Crochet for more than three at-bats, which gives the former ChiSox ace an element of surprise. However, Snell gets the slight nod with Atlanta struggling mightily at the plate. The Bravos are also without Jurickson Profar, who has been suspended for half the season, and superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. is still recovering from a torn ACL. Catcher Sean Murphy (ribs) is on the shelf as well.
The top of the order is still formidable with Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies. Bryan De La Cruz will be in the mix, but the former Miami Marlin is more of a contact guy, so he is not too much of a detriment, plus Orlando Arcia, Chadwick Tromp and Eli White are easier outs at the bottom of the order that could facilitate three-up, three-down innings. Savvy gamers going with the Wheeler + Snell combo on DraftKings and Yahoo will need to find differentiation with alternative stacks or one-off batters in order to gain separation from the other lineups choosing this path at pitcher.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Boston Red Sox
Taking a hitter or two against Snell in the same lineup is, of course, an option, with Albies, Riley and Ozuna being the trio to target. The Dodgers did use their best relievers yesterday, though the embarrassment of riches still leaves them a fresh Kirby Yates and Ben Casparius at a minimum.
The leverage bats to look at against Wheeler would be switch-hitter Michael Toglia and lefty Ryan McMahon.
Turning our attention to the Red Sox stack, it is very much in play against RHP Zach Eflin, who has not had much strikeout success outside of his 50 starts for Tampa between 2023 and prior to his trade to Baltimore midway through last season.
Once again the Rays managed to polish up an imperfect pitcher, turning the 30-year-old into a pair of top-20 prospects from the Orioles (infielder Mac Horvath, No. 10, and RHP Jackson Baumeister, No. 17).
Eflin is not a bad pitcher by any stretch, but he has been more of an innings-eater throughout his career rather than a shutdown ace or strikeout artist. He has average power numbers and mediocre ground ball rates, so when opposing teams are “hitting ’em where they ain’t,” crooked numbers are in play. It is going to be a cool evening in Charm City, but keep in mind that the left field wall and placement have been tweaked again to encourage more offense only a couple seasons after the last round of renovations.
Look to the lefties first, with Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, and Wilyer Abreu as the core four and former Astro Alex Bregman also in the mix. This is the first featured slate of the season that is this small, so understanding that outcomes for full stacks are even more magnified is important. Think of tonight like a playoff slate where there are plenty of fresh arms in the bullpens, favorable pitching weather and aces on the mound. It is all about capturing the handful of home runs with one-offs while nailing the pitchers that will push teams up the leaderboard to glory.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Triston Casas is, of course, in play for the DFS world as identified above, but he is also showing up in the Portfolio EV model for his under 0.5 total bases at +140 on Fanatics.
Factoring in the various variables, we can see that Portfolio EV shows this wager has +129 “true odds,” which works out to a favorable 4.7% expected ROI. Most books are posting +115 to +120 odds, which makes for a 4% to 6% negative ROI.
Across his last 194 lefty-righty matchups, Casas has a stellar .212 ISO, though his .328 wOBA and 11.3% walk rate underscore that he is more about extra-base hits or walks than contact. While any hit will end this wager quickly, walks do not count towards total bases for this offering.
It has been a slow start this spring for Casas, who has just one hit in 17 at-bats and one walk against seven strikeouts. His time will come, but it doesn’t have to be today.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
