MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 9
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
The Rays will be playing their “home games” in George Steinbrenner Stadium, which has dimensions of a regular ballpark, mimicking various outfield nods to both old and current Yankee Stadium, including being favorable for left-handed hitters. The other thing to remember is that the late spring and, of course, the summer weather is very warm and humid in the Tampa area, which should significantly boost offenses.
For tonight, the game-time temperatures will be sliding into the upper-60s with moderate 40% humidity. That is mostly neutral from a weather standpoint, but file away this information.
Last season, his first as a full-time starter, RHP Ryan Pepiot was solid with a 3.95 FIP, 1.154 WHIP, 111 ERA+ and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Pepiot came over alongside outfielders Manuel Margot and Jonny DeLuca as part of the Tyler Glasnow trade in December of 2023. He had been an above-average prospect after being a third-round selection in the 2019 MLB Draft. He worked as both a spot-starter and a reliever during his time in Dodger blue, looking like a potential late-bloomer who could be a back-of-the-rotation starter or multi-inning reliever.
Los Angeles has most everyone healthy, aside from good gloveman Zach Neto, who is on the injured list, and Yoan Moncada, who has missed the last few games with a thumb issue, though he is expected to return before the weekend. Then, of course, there is the Invisible Man Anthony Rendon, who has played in only 257 games over the last five seasons.
Rendon signed a seven-year, $245 million contract after winning the World Series with Washington in 2019. He is out for this season, which leaves one more left on his deal and a good chance the Angles just give him his outright release. That would work out to just under a $1 million per game and $2 million per RBI.
Mike Trout is still amazing, though he will be 34 later this summer and has been plagued by various injuries over the last half decade. Jorge Soler was added to provide some pop in the heart of the order, but he loves to swing from his heels and strikes out regularly. Catcher Logan O’Hoppe has been one of the most consistent producers over the last couple of years; however, he has struck out nearly 30% of the time in his last 436 same-handed matchups.
All told, the projected lineup for the Halos has a 25.5% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers since the start of last year. This is going to make Pepiot the most desirable pitcher on the relatively light featured slate, so savvy gamers will also want to play a few lineups targeting him with the top half of the Angels lineup.
Now in his age-31 season, Fried is in the prime of his career. In eight seasons with Atlanta, he had a pair of All-Star appearances, winning three Gold Gloves and even a Silver Slugger award prior to the implementation of the universal designated hitter. Fried has a long history of solid run prevention, buoyed by his ability to limit extra-base hits, leaning into his stellar 54.4% career ground ball rate. He also strikes out nearly a batter per inning, which gives him the desirable DFS upside.
The Detroit offense is dinged up with Gleyber Torres, Matt Vierling, Jake Rodgers and Wenceel Perez all on the injured list. That is half of the projected starting lineup, which means young Colt Keith is learning to hit in lefty-lefty matchups on the fly, with the most Disinterested Man in the World Javier Baez pushed up into the heart of the order against southpaws. Former first overall selection Spencer Torkelson may finally be breaking through, and that is key considering he has been sent back to the minors multiple times, including an extended stretch last year, appearing in 58 games for the Toledo Mud Hens.
The cherry on top is 32-year-old Andy Ibanez, who is likely to be batting second or third in the order. He is a better fill-in-type player who has a grand total of 25 home runs in his 1,049 career plate appearances, not even breaking into The Show until he was in his age-28 season.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Tampa Bay Rays
Atlanta gets a good matchup against RHP Taijuan Walker, who is embarking on his 13th MLB campaign.
The contrarian (through the lens of this shallow schedule) option is Tampa, getting to face LHP Yusei Kikuchi. The best attribute for the now-33-year-old southpaw is that he has averaged just over 31 starts per season in each of his five full years, excluding the 2020 pandemic-shortened year.
He has enough strikeout potential that he pops up from time to time as a recommended pitcher, though that is because his propensity for ceding power to opposite-handed batsmen leads to on-field implosions, which push his salary down the list.
The Rays will be running out a mostly right-handed lineup, save for switch-hitters Jake Mangum and Taylor Walls. The best options are Yandy Diaz, Christopher Morel and Junior Caminero at the top of the order, though that is going to be the assessment of most gamers taking this path. Depending on where he is in the lineup, catcher Danny Jansen could be the fulcrum to a Tampa stack or employed as a one-off to meet the backstop requirements on DraftKings ($3,200) and Yahoo ($10).
Early Slate Target: Houston Astros
Both pitchers are from the Dominican Republic, though the “younger” of the two had a far more circuitous route to ending up in the Seattle rotation. Luis F. started his journey as a 17-year-old, playing for Arizona’s Dominican League organization. In his 10th season, he finally made it to Double-A, then the next year he got his cup of coffee with Detroit, finally making The Show for 3.2 innings in 2022. The last two years he was with Chiba Lotte and then Orix in the NPB before getting a minor league deal from Seattle.
RHP George Kirby is on the injured list, and after RHP Emerson Hancock melted down (allowing six runs in two-thirds of an inning in his lone start), well, the Mariners have to hope that Castillo looks more like Castillo than a baseball vagabond. The M’s used five relievers last night and three on Monday, so it will be interesting to see how quickly manager Dan Wilson moves if Castillo is in trouble.
Look to the top half of the Houston order, with Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Isaac Paredes and Jose Altuve being the core four building blocks.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Though Diaz did not get a callout in the recommendation for the Houston stack against Seattle, he is a capable batsmen, even in same-handed matchups. The +165 line is enticing since we just need a double or two singles for this wager to come through. Of course, the hardest thing to do in baseball is get a hit, so he will have his work cut out for him today, though as the catcher for the visiting team, he should see five plate appearances this afternoon. Keep in mind that walks and being hit by a pitch do not count towards total bases for this wager.
