MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | March 31
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
While Steinbrenner Field is the largest spring training facility in Florida, with luxury suites included, it has a capacity of just 11,000 fans. It also serves as the home field for the Single-A Tampa Tarpons and hosts concerts throughout the year. Though some may view it as a “minor league” ballpark, the real factor impacting games will be the outdoor conditions — heat and humidity — which should give an edge to hitters.
Soon enough it will become second nature to remember this venue change. Most importantly, as the weather warms up quickly over the next two weeks and top-tier offenses such as Atlanta, Boston, and the New York Yankees come through on the next homestand, we may not be so enthralled to ride with the Rays.
Rasmussen made three spring training starts, with the last one occurring 10 days ago against most of the regulars for Atlanta. He recorded 74 pitches in this appearance and should see a similar workload on Monday. Injuries limited the now 29-year-old to just 80.2 innings over the last two seasons, including two rehabilitation starts in the minors. Tampa has no reason to push him beyond 80 pitches or five innings today with six more months of baseball ahead.
Keep in mind that the likely limit is going to make getting the quality start bonus (six innings, three or fewer earned runs) difficult on FanDuel. DraftKings is more geared towards strikeouts, and Rasmussen is in the mix for a handful against the projected Pittsburgh lineup. Getting through five innings is also key since that is the eligibility criteria for earning a win, which is in play with RHP Carmen Mlodzinski toeing the rubber for the Pirates.
The Bucs bring a lot of experience with 37-year-old Tommy Pham leading off, and, of course, there is elder statesman Andrew McCutchen, who will be celebrating his 39th birthday in the fall. Ke’Bryan Hayes was dreadful last year against same-handed hurlers, managing only 13 extra-base hits in 396 plate appearances. Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz are solid, though the bottom of the order of Hayes, Endy Rodriguez, Adam Frazier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa could turn over very quickly for Pittsburgh, leading to short innings and boosting the DFS production for Rasmussen.
The other intriguing pitcher is RHP Ben Brown, who will be on the mound for the Chicago Cubs. He has a nice matchup against the Athletics, though we need to remember that this game is in Sacramento and not Oakland. They will be sharing Sutter Health Park with the River Cats, which is a Triple-A team for the San Francisco Giants in the Pacific Coast League (PCL).
This venue has solid dimensions, with straightaway center checking in at 403 feet, and right and left field at 325 and 330, respectively. Keep in mind that Sacramento is just above sea level, and this is not quite the bandbox typical of other PCL parks such as Las Vegas, Reno, Salt Lake and Albuquerque, which also have elevation favoring offense. For reference, the dimensions of Oakland Coliseum are 410 feet to center and 330 feet down the lines.
Picking on the Athletics is once again a thing, as the lineup is loaded with strikeout potential and the current collection of hitters does not do a great job of consistently getting on base. This helps opposing pitchers survive the inevitable home runs, which are far less damaging as solo shots.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
DraftKings is making things interesting; Shohei Ohtani ($6,500), Mookie Betts ($5,500) and Freddie Freeman ($5,000) average out at nearly $5,700 as a trio to target. This can be accomplished by looking to several discount dandies in good matchups, including Rowdy Tellez ($2,100), Gavin Sheets ($2,200), Cam Smith ($2,700), Jonathan Aranda ($2,900) and late-bloomer Luken Baker ($2,300), among others.
Speaking of late-bloomers, that is also the category that best holds Holmes, who finally made it to The Show as a 28-year-old. His journey started back in 2014, when the Dodgers selected him as the 22nd overall pick out of high school in the 2014 MLB Draft.
Holmes toiled away for multiple seasons in the minors for Los Angeles, Oakland and finally Atlanta before getting his chance. By all metrics and assessments, he looks better as a reliever, though he would have been called up years ago if that really were the case.
Teoscar Hernandez has really blossomed with all of the protection around him in this loaded lineup, and Max Muncy continues to rake when he has the platoon advantage. Michael Conforto is also on the correct side of the platoon tonight, so he should be in the lineup as well. Even though he slots in at the bottom of the order, he has a friendly salary on DraftKings ($3,800).
Main Slate Secondary Target: Chicago Cubs
In his 137.2 innings, Estes has 6.47 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.77 home runs per nine, leading to a career 5.29 xFIP against his 5.01 ERA. Having Kyle Tucker hitting second creates a terrifying lineup against right-handed pitchers. Ian Happ is a strong switch-hitter, handling himself well from both sides of the plate, but he rakes against righties. Add in Michael Busch from the left side and Seiya Suzuki from the right, and the Cubs are loaded at the top half of the order. Things fall off a cliff after that, with the speed of Pete Crow-Armstrong the only other positive attribute from the back of the order.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Leody Taveras is showing up in the Portfolio EV model for his over 0.5 total bases at -135 on Fanatics.
Factoring in the various variables, we can see that Portfolio EV shows this wager has -145 “true odds,” which works out to a solid 3.0% expected ROI.
The rest of the operators are in the -180 range, which brings confidence in the likelihood of this wager coming to fruition. Keep in mind this can only be done via a base hit as walks or being hit by a pitch do not count towards total bases.
Even with Taveras likely batting ninth, he should get some good looks as pitchers try to manufacture an out before turning the lineup over to the big boppers.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
