Saturday night MLB DFS action coalesces around a seven-game featured slate locking at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Today, we’ll dive into MLB DFS projections and use Stokastic’s tools to see how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers, and create optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Tarik Skubal and Charlie Morton are some of today’s core pitchers, and according to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Atlanta Braves and Detroit Tigers provide stacking opportunities as featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 24
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Tarik Skubal (DET at CHW)
Tigers at White Sox – 2.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
$10,900 at DraftKings
$11,500 at FanDuel
$58 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool loves the matchup for LHP Tarik Skubal, and there are enough discount dandies across the position players on all DFS sites, to make Skubal a key priority.
The Chicago’s active roster has a 72 wRC+ against southpaws this season. Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes various elements such as park factors, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100. This means that the White Sox are creating runs 28% less efficiently than the league average, below even Miami (78 wRC+) and a full standard deviation behind Detroit (89 wRC+).
Skubal has lapped the field in the American League Cy Young Award race, with -1400 to -1900 odds, well ahead of RHP Corbin Burnes (+900 to +1000). The only time Skubal faced the ChiSox this season was back on Opening Day with a fully operational offense. The 27-year-old southpaw cruised with six scoreless innings, allowing three hits and striking out half a dozen hitters. Injuries and trades have seen the Southsiders move on from Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, Kevin Pillar and Paul DeJong.
If Skubal can navigate the likes of Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Vaughn, he should be in contention for top-pitching honors tonight.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Charlie Morton (ATL vs. WAS)
Braves vs. Nationals – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
$8,100 at DraftKings
$8,700 at FanDuel
$38 at Yahoo
In a fun twist, the Washington Nationals have had RHP Charlie Morton’s number this season, racking up 13 runs in two matchups over 10.2 innings. Of course, these games were a couple of months ago, when the Nats still had Lane Thomas, Jesse Winker, Eddie Rosario and Nick Senzel. Hey now, don’t laugh about Senzel — he had five RBIs in those games and logged a trio of doubles against Morton.
While Washington has done a good job of limiting strikeouts against right-handed pitching, the projected lineup will still be featuring James Wood (34.5%, 116 PAs) and Joey Gallo (39.2%, 125 PAs). Catcher Keibert Ruiz is pedestrian at best against same-handed hurlers, while Jose Tena and Andres Chaparro are inexperienced with less than 100 at-bats between them in The Show. Trust the venerable veteran in this matchup, particularly as an SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo.
Early Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Blake Snell (SF at SEA)
Giants at Mariners – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
$10,100 at DraftKings
$11,000 at FanDuel
$58 at Yahoo
It is going to be a cool, rainy afternoon in Seattle with game time temperatures in the low-60s, with a breeze out to left field and a good chance that the “carport” roof will be extended over the action taking place at T-Mobile Park.
For those who are not able to afford Bucks Deluxe option LHP Blake Snell, his counterpart, RHP George Kirby, is a reasonable alternative in a game shaping up to be a pitcher’s duel. Since the beginning of July, Snell has been sublime with a 1.03 ERA, 1.91 FIP, 2.86 xFIP and 12.04 strikeouts per nine innings. Yes, the no-hitter helps, but he has ceded just six runs across these 52.1 innings.
Seattle is in a freefall, and while the M’s did gut out a 6-5 win in the 10th innings for new manager Dan Wilson, this squad strikes out 26% of the time against southpaws. The Mariners have lost eight of the last 10 games and despite having the best rotation in the league, the sputtering bats are likely to cost the team a chance at the postseason.
Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena and Dylan Moore are likely to be at the top of the order with a lefty on the mound. Over the last 30 days, this trio has a sub-.100 ISO and a 30% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Yikes!
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves
Braves vs. Nationals – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Jake Irvin
DK Top Stack %: 9.3%
FD Top Stack %: 9.5%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is curious to figure out the real version of RHP Jake Irvin. The second-year starter has improved his metrics across the board from his rookie season, even sliding inside the top-40 qualified pitchers with a 3.81 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
However, it is not all wine and roses, with the 27-year-old looking very vulnerable to power bats, allowing seven home runs in his last three starts. Even more damning, five of his last eight outings have resulted in multi-home run efforts by opposing teams. Lefties have gotten to Irvin with a .201 ISO in 332 plate appearances, while same-handed batsmen have a .172 ISO in 280 plate appearances.
Marcell Ozuna seems all but preordained to hit a home run tonight, with Jorge Soler’s power prospects not that far behind. Matt Olson has not been his dominant self, but we know that Truist Park plays up for lefties, which also bodes well for Jarred Kelenic and Michael Harris II. It should be Travis d’Arnaud behind the plate and the catcher profiles well against Irvin tonight.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Detroit Tigers
Tigers at White Sox – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Jake Irvin
DK Top Stack %: 12.7%
FD Top Stack %: 12.0%
Pop Quiz: rookie RHP Ky Bush has made three starts and totaled 14.2 innings. Knowing that the 24-year-old is incredibly generous, how many free passes do you think he has handed out? Yup, the number is going to be high if I am asking, so good on anyone who said 15 walks.
Even in the minors, Bush had trouble with control. This has most season-long projection systems (Steamer, ZiPS, The Bat) forecasting something in the 4.1-to-4.4 walks per nine innings range. It will be all but impossible for his current ratio not to recede, but that doesn’t mean it has to happen tonight.
The Motor City Kitties are much better as a secondary or complementary stack, with the focus being on the top of the order. Spencer Torkelson is back up from his MiLB banishment, and it seems like the former first-overall selection in the 2020 MLB Draft may be up with the parent club for good this time. He always had a strong eye with a 15% walk rate in the minors, but now he has started to make more contact, which allows his power upside to be on display.
Rookie Colt Keith has not shown power in lefty-lefty matchups yet, but he at least is getting the bat on the ball, which is half the battle. He and Torkleson can be meshed with Matt Vierling, Andy Ibanez or catcher Jake Rogers. Full-stacks are fine, but again, this feels like a spot for duos and trios as salary savers.
Harness the full potential of Stokastic’s Lineup Generator and enhance your MLB DFS picks with our comprehensive Lineup Generator Guide!
Early Slate Primary Target: Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers at Athletics – 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Joe Boyle
DK Top Stack %: 12.7%
FD Top Stack %: 7.9%
While RHP Joe Boyle is the fourth-ranked prospect for Oakland, he has some serious flaws in his game. The main issue for him has been walks, with him averaging 6.93 per nine innings in his 37.2 frames thus far. Another way to visualize this anomaly is that he has 34 hits and 27 runs, with 29 walks. Just wow!
Somehow, Boyle has ceded only a trio of taters, though he has allowed an extra-base hit every three innings. That may not seem too bad, but when there are almost always runners on base, it is what leads to an unsightly 6.21 ERA.
Even without Christian Yelich for the last 27 games, Milwaukee is still averaging 4.82 runs per affair. The Brewers have the fourth most steals in the league, which is important to consider since Boyle has allowed 10 stolen bases in his scant 53.2 innings in The Show. Leadoff man Brice Turang has 37 thefts, landing him third overall on the leaderboard. Jackson Chourio has swiped 18 bags, plus Sal Frelick (16 SBs) and Willy Adames (13 SBs) are not afraid to pick their spots.
At the plate, William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins join Adames, Chourio and Turang as the core for stacking purposes, with Frelick, Jake Bauers and Garrett Mitchell differentiation options.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Although we will be riding with LHP Tarik Skubal in DFS, we can hedge out some of his downside in the sports wagering world. It is never fun picking on a Cy Young frontrunner, but there is value in the under on his 7.5 strikeouts.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on BetMGM where it is available at -115 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -124 “true odds” for the flashy strikeout artist to fall below eight whiffs. This works out to a solid 3.4% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced with Pinnacle posting a -156 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 9% expected ROI.
Tonight Skubal projects for 7.2 strikeouts, which indicates a 55% probability that he will fall short of the eight needed for this wager to fail. This is likely to go down to the wire, which we can when looking at his last dozen starts, where he has tallied five, nine, nine, eight, eight, six, eight, 13, seven, seven, seven and two strikeouts. For as bad as the White Sox are at scoring runs, the projected lineup is right around the league average with a 22.7% strikeout rate against lefties this season.
Make no mistake, Skubal is an elite strikeout artist, but with nothing left to play for other than the Cy Young Award and the pitching Triple Crown, Detroit should be content to let him cruise for six or so innings, before having the future of the franchise call it a night. If the likes of Lenyn Sosa, Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Vaughn and Nick Senzel can show even a modicum of patience, they could coax Skubal into using up some of his pitch count for extended at-bats.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Saturday, Aug. 24
The music is going to stop at some point, but for now enjoy the respite from rain. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, be sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
