MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 13
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Since joining Houston at the beginning of last month, Kikuchi has gone into DGAF mode, constantly challenging hitters. In his 41 innings as an Astro, he has 11.63 strikeouts per mine innings, with a 3.07 ERA, a 3.22 FIP and a 2.65 xFIP. In his time with Toronto this season, he was still above average with 10.12 strikeouts per nine innings, but clearly has has been given the green light to level up.
The 33-year-old has always been above average when it came to whiffs, averaging over one punch-out per inning since coming over from Japan. In prior seasons, he has had some power or walk issues, but this year he has some of the best walk and home run rates of his career. His pitch mix and velocity has been similar over the last three seasons, so it seems likely his more aggressive approach and pitch sequencing are likely the underlying engine for his stellar campaign.
The Angels are bringing up a passel of prospects, with Niko Kavadas, Eric Wagaman and Jordyn Adams expected to be featured in the lineup tonight. This trio barely has 100 combined at bats in The Show, and none of them are among the top-20 prospects in the Los Angeles MiLB system.
This season, Bibee has upped his strikeouts from 8.9 per nine innings in his rookie season, to 9.7 this year, while maintaining his pitch-per-inning efficiency (16.4 to 16.7). He has nine quality starts this year, with a chance to match his 11 from last season, with another three starts likely coming his way.
The only real concern for Bibee is that he has allowed eight walks in his last three starts, though that includes a game in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Sunday and a home and home set against Kansas City.
Tampa is playing out the string on this season and the team has called up a passel of youngsters and also emptied the bench. That means regular playing time for Jose Caballero and Jonny DeLuca who are better against southpaws, along with the inexperienced bats of Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and Logan Driscoll. The projected lineup for the Rays has a 22.4% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers this season, with a middling .142 ISO. Bibee does allow his share of extra-base hits, but he should be able to hold his own against this iteration of the Rays, while using his own 26.1% strikeout rate to conjure up some fantasy goodness.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros
Houston actually slots in between the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies, with the second-best top stack score. The Astros will be facing LHP Samuel Aldegheri who is the first Italian born and raised pitcher to play in The Show.
Aldegheri began his baseball journey in his home country, spending two seasons with Parma Clima in the Italian Baseball League. He was then signed by the Phillies, under the international free agent framework for his age-19 season. He worked through the lowest levels of the Phillies organization, finally being promoted to Double-A this year. In late-July, he was dealt to the Angels, along with shortstop George Klassen, in return for RHP Carlos Estevez.
While Aldegheri has a wicked 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings rate in the minors, the main projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat) have that figure dropping to around eight per nine, with his elevated 3.5-to-4.0 walks per nine being sticky and hard to escape at the top-level.
Houston of course has been one of the best teams against southpaws, for the last half-decade. Though Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker are shaking off some rust due to inactivity from various injuries, this is a fine “get right” spot.
Yordan Alvarez is one of the best in the game against fellow lefties, with a .450 wOBA and a .243 ISO this season in 187 plate appearances. Catcher Yanier Diaz, infielder Jeremy Pena and outfielder Jake Meyers can be used to fill out full-stacks, while also providing varying degrees of salary savings.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Milwaukee Brewers
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez was not able to make his Arizona debut, until August, after being shut down in April with shoulder soreness. He has averaged 86.2 pitches per outing, with a 5.83 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and only 18 strikeouts in his 29.1 innings. That works out to a paltry 5.52 whiffs per nine innings, which is the lowest of his career. Both his 3.07 walks and 1.23 home runs per nine are also among the worst of his career. Though we need to remember this is a small sample size, but for a 31-year-old pitcher.
The Brew Crew is a fine secondary-mini stack as there are specific hitters to target when they are against left-handed hurlers. Catchers William Contreras and Gary Sanchez make things tricky on DraftKings and FanDuel, since only one can be rostered per lineup. This does have them as intriguing one-offs, who will likely be underrepresented in tournaments.
Rhys Hoskins and Joey Ortiz are the best power plays, though they will be in the back-half of the lineup. Jackson Chourio and Blake Perkins are likely going to be hitting in the top two slots, though contact is their specialty, which makes them a good match with the catchers, who will be right behind them in the lineup.
Willy Adames is the wild card, since he has had one of his worst seasons against lefties, while having one of his best against fellow-righties. He at least has flashed power over the last month against southpaws, though the contact is below replacement level.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
RHP Zack Littell has been solid this season, but he is also at a career-high 138.2 innings and we know that Tampa does not like to push their pitchers, particularly at the end of the season with nothing on the line.
The Portfolio EV model has the 28-year-old hurler for around 3.7 strikeouts tonight, which is of course above the 3.5 strikeouts being offered across various sportsbooks.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on BetMGM where it is available at +115 odds.
Portfolio EV shows this wager has +109 “true odds,” and that works out to a reasonable 2.9% expected ROI.
We can see that Pinnacle has a punitive -115 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 10% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Littell was put on the injured reserve for the last two weeks of August, dealing with decreased velocity, due to shoulder fatigue. In his two starts since returning, he has four and two strikeouts on 81 and 78 pitches. In the three preceding his break, he had three, five and three strikeouts on 68, 90 and 79 pitches.
The hope tonight is that he has a soft-cap of around 70 pitches as the team continues to keep him in the rotation, but on a decreased workload. That combines well with the Guardians who have the firepower to push him from the game early and enough patient hitters to chew through his pitch count.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
