Wednesday has a wild 11-game featured slate, locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is reaching forward to grab the four earlier games that begin at 6:40 and 6:45 p.m. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Chris Sale and Logan Gilbert as the two top pitching options for tonight’s action. The Coors Field Extravaganza will be dominating decisions tonight, but there are viable pivots with the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 3
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Chris Sale (ATL vs. SF)
Braves vs. Giants – 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
$10,200 at DraftKings
$11,300 at FanDuel
$55 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has LHP Chris Sale as the bucks deluxe option on Wednesday, with a 30% chance of being a top-2 fantasy pitcher on DraftKings and Yahoo. On FanDuel he has a 10% probability of being the highest-scoring ace, with RHP Zack Wheeler the only other pitcher with a better-than-6% likelihood of being The Man.
It is going to be a warm one in Atlanta, with temperatures in the low-90s to start the game, though there is an 8 to 12 mph breeze coming in from centerfield. The 35-year-old is crafting an amazing season, ceding two or fewer runs in 12 of his 15 (80%) starts. In a “Baseball being Baseball” moment, it was Oakland who roughed him up for eight runs on June 1 and Miami that got to the venerable veteran for five runs on April 13. So for those scoring at home, two of the three worst offenses in the league handed Sale 13 of his 29 (45%) earned runs on the year.
The Giants will be running out a righty-heavy lineup, though that should not be of much concern for Sale, who has a 30.4% strikeout rate in his last 671 opposite-handed matchups. San Francisco does have the most efficient offense against southpaws this season, so there is always the chance it can rough up Sale, but it is not a likely outcome.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA vs. BAL)
Mariners vs. Orioles – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
$9,400 at DraftKings
$10,200 at FanDuel
$54 at Yahoo
There is no salary relief being given to RHP Logan Gilbert, as he matches up with Baltimore, which has recorded the most home runs and total bases and the second most runs in the league. The Orioles also do a decent job of limiting strikeouts, with only a 21.0% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of last year.
Now for Gilbert’s bona fides. The 27-year-old is currently 10th in the league with a 2.72 ERA and atop the WHIP leaderboard with 0.88 walks + hits per inning pitched. He also has a whopping 14 quality starts in 17 (82%) appearances, accompanied by 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings, with very little power allowed to opposing hitters. This is a strength versus strength matchup, and the weather and ballpark favoring pitching.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Dean Kremer (BAL at SEA)
Orioles at Mariners – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
$7,100 at DraftKings
$8,600 at FanDuel
$43 at Yahoo
This will be the first start in a month, as RHP Dean Kremer has been out with a triceps injury. In three rehabilitation starts, he tallied 59, 39 and 75 pitches. The results were less than sexy with an 11.42 ERA over 8.2 innings. Yes, that is a small sample size, but it also excludes three unearned runs. He did have nine strikeouts, and tonight he has the best strikeout matchup in the league.
DraftKings has the best salary for Kremer, even factoring him in for a around an 80-pitch workload. The Mariners lead the league in strikeouts, and they have gone back to being a terrible offense with little consistency. The team has dropped nine of the last 12 games, with the following offensive output (reverse chronological order): Zero, three, one, three, five, three, three, four, nine, two, three and zero runs. Clearly that is no precursor for tonight’s production, but it does help mitigate what could be a semi-reduced workload cap for Kremer.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks – 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Cristian Mena
DK Top Stack %: 7.6%
FD Top Stack %: 7.5%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool once more has the Dodgers battling the teams in the Coors Field Extravaganza for the best offensive projection of the slate. For those that fell asleep early last night, you may have missed that Los Angeles had six runs, while Milwaukee (4) and Colorado (3) together barely topped that figure.
Tonight the Brewers have nearly a one-in-five probability of being the highest-scoring stack on the featured slate. While that is impressive, it still means that 80% of the time it will be another squad. The Rockies are a whisker below the Dodgers, with this trio of teams well above the next wave of options.
RHP Cristian Mena has drawn a tough matchup for his MLB debut, and the only thing in his favor is the Chase Field roof being closed. Mena was acquired by the Diamondbacks in February when they dealt outfielder Dominic Fletcher to the Chicago White Sox. Mena is a decent (though far from flashy) prospect, rating out as a top-10 commodity for each organization but not coming close to any of the top-100 industry sheets. He has the strikeout potential to be a middle-of-the-rotation arm and performed well in 102.1 Triple-A innings between the two clubs.
The rookie has been solid with 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings in Triple-A, but the 4.1 walks and 1.2 home runs per nine are a little concerning, particularly against a veteran lineup of polished professionals.
Look to the usual suspects of Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernandez and catcher Will Smith. Andy Pages and Jason Heyward are the best options to round out full stacks, with the flotsam and jetsam at the bottom of the order best left for late-slate differentiation.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: New York Yankees
Yankees vs. Reds – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Andrew Abbott
DK Top Stack %: 5.8%
FD Top Stack %: 5.9%
The main weakness for LHP Andrew Abbott is power to opposite-handed batsmen. Over the last two seasons, the mercurial hurler has suffered a .217 ISO to right-handed hitters. That figure has increased from .205 last year to .233 this season, which is a raging red flag.
Even without Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo, the Yankees are still able to put forth a daunting lineup for southpaws. Since the beginning of last season, Aaron Judge has a .471 wOBA and a .397 ISO in 158 plate appearances against lefties. Juan Soto (.388, .202, 316), Gleyber Torres (.356, .220, 208), Anthony Volpe (.335, .176, 242) and J.D. Davis (.320, .177, 203) are also providing top-shelf production in this timeframe.
Between the expensive pitching, Coors Field Extravaganza and elevated salaries for the other top-end options, this is shaping up to be a splendiferous slate.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
This evening, LHP Carlos Rodon is someone to target for the under on his 6.5 strikeouts, which is available at -115 on Hard Rock.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -128 “true odds” for Keller to fall under six strikeouts, which presents a strong 5.0% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Caesars at -157, which is indicative of a NEGATIVE 9% expected ROI.
Rodon does have 30 strikeouts in his last five starts, spanning 26.2 innings. However, he also ended up with a ridiculously poor 7.76 ERA. Things really melted down for the electric lefty in his two most recent appearances, a game in Toronto and one against Atlanta, resulting in just 8.2 innings, 22 hits, three walks, five home runs and 16 total runs allowed. Yes, he had 11 strikeouts, but something is clearly amiss and his advanced metrics have not been so hot over the last 10 starts either.
Cincinnati’s has done a good job of limiting strikeouts (19.2%) against lefties this season. The team also has enough discipline to get runners on base, with the projected lineup having six different hitters with a 10% walk rate or better versus southpaws this season. That could be enough to help Rodon waste some of his pitch count and leading to fewer strikeouts.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Wednesday, July 3
Pittsburgh looks to be the only location with any precipitation issues, so keep tabs on the forecast if you are playing the early slate. Though, as always, be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.
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