Wednesday has an enticing 11-game featured slate with a 6:35 p.m. ET lock time on FanDuel and DraftKings. Yahoo is locking at 7:10 p.m. ET focusing on a five-game featured slate. Today we’ll dive into the MLB DFS projections and leverage Stokastic’s tools to see how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers and craft optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Robbie Ray, Bryan Woo and Ronel Blanco as preferred pitchers, while the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers provide stacking opportunities for today’s featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 14
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Robbie Ray (SF vs. ATL)
Giants vs. Braves – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
$8,600 at DraftKings
$10,100 at FanDuel
$43 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool, does not have a strong endorsement for any of tonight’s 22 pitching options on DraftKings and FanDuel. Atlanta is, of course, without three key hitters, in Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II.
Though to be clear, while Atlanta has landed in the middle of the pack, plating 101 runners over the last 30 days, the team leads the league with 46 home runs in this timeframe. That is a crazy disparity, which is almost 20 runs light, based all of the round-trippers. True, that could be the actual anomaly, but make no mistake, this is not a creampuff matchup.
Tonight will be the fifth start for LHP Robbie Ray, who has racked up 28 strikeouts in his 20.1 innings. He has nine walks and five home runs, which is why today’s tournament rankings are trepidatious.
The ballpark and weather are in Ray’s favor, though he will still need to mitigate the likes of Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson, former teammate Jorge Soler and lefty-specialist Ramon Laureano. This is absolutely feasible, considering that Ray held the Dodgers and Reds to three total runs, with 17 strikeouts in their respective home venues. Of course, the anemic Oakland offense got him for a trio of taters in his second start. Caveat Emptor!
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Ronel Blanco (HOU at TB)
Astros at Rays – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:50 p.m. ET
$9,300 at DraftKings
$10,300 at FanDuel
$41 at Yahoo
Thanks have been a little rough for RHP Ronel Blanco over the last three games, in which he has closed out the fifth inning only once. He has still averaged 92 pitches per start, with 21 strikeouts in these 13.1 innings, but if a starter does not finish the fifth inning, they are not eligible for the win.
Tampa has struggled on offense, scoring only 2.75 runs per game over the last dozen tilts. Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe (no relation) are the only real remaining threats against right-handed hurlers, with Christopher Morel getting an honorable mention. The projected lineup for the Rays has a .110 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, with a 23% strikeout rate.
Even with the higher implied run total, Blanco still is a strong DFS option since he does have strikeout upside. However, his salary is reflective of a quality start and at least half a dozen strikeouts. The matchup is not as risky as what Ray is facing, but Blanco has a far shorter track record.
Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Bryan Woo (SEA at DET)
Mariners at Tigers – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
$9,000 at DraftKings
$9,400 at FanDuel
$41 at Yahoo
The caveat for RHP Bryan Woo is that he has missed games every month this season with various maladies, aside from August. He was a surprising success as a rookie last year, pushed into the starting lineup due to Seattle being short-handed at the back of the rotation.
After having a soft limit on his workload, exceeding 80 pitches only once in his first 11 outings, Woo has thrown 92 and 88 in his last two appearances. It would be folly to expect more than 90 pitches, but something in the mid-80s is reasonable. Of course, with his efficiency and strikeouts, Woo continues to have an elevated salary. The additional 8-to-12 pitches on his workload, do increase the floor results.
Shout out to the Motor City Kitties who rattled off a season high 15 runs yesterday. Do not expect anything close to that production today, but it was still fun to see the joyous fan reactions for the home team.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
Yankees at White Sox – 6.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Davis Martin
DK Top Stack %: 13.4%
FD Top Stack %: 13.5%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool is convinced tonight the Yankees will put it all together. Monday was a mess, yesterday was all about Juan Soto, who accounted for all four of the New York runs in style, with three round-trippers. Tonight’s sacrificial lamb is RHP Davis Martin, who likely had very little sleep, worrying about how he will be trying to diffuse the Bronx Bombers tonight.
Martin was a 14th round selection in the 2018 MLB Draft, out of Texas Tech. Like most young pitchers entering the minors at that time, the cancellation of the 2020 season derailed his career progression. Then Martin lost 2023, undergoing Tommy John surgery. Now we have a 27-year-old, with 76.2 Triple-A inning and 74.2 in The Show, taking on a power-laden lineup.
The injury curse is still looming over the Yankees, with recent trade acquisition Jazz Chisholm Jr. injuring his left elbow (UCL). While Martin is not a gas can, he is not much of pitcher to fear either, being the 23rd prospect in the Chicago organization, with a 2022 graduation date, which he met – but with very little fanfare.
Soto has been amazing this year in pinstripes, but even with his home run barrage yesterday, his .291 ISO against right-handed pitching this season does not hold a candle to Aaron Judge (.365 ISO), while Giancarlo Stanton (.280 ISO) is not far behind this duo. Austin Wells and Ben Rice are the next generation of New York boppers, with each boasting above average pop in lefty-righty matchups. Toss in Alex Verdugo at the top of the order, or Anthony Volpe at the bottom and there are ways to craft semi-differentiated stacks.
Want to improve your lineup analysis with the Post-Contest Simulator? Check out Steve Buzzard’s tutorial to discover how to use simulations to refine your MLB DFS picks!
Main Slate Secondary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers at Brewers – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Frankie Montas
DK Top Stack %: 6.4%
FD Top Stack %: 6.3%
All three Dodger MVPs are back in the lineup together, which does not bode well for RHP Frankie Montas. In his two starts since joining the Brewers, the erstwhile ace has made a pair of starts, with a 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and a solid 12 strikeouts while ceding a pair of home runs.
Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are the trio to target, with catcher Will Smith and outfielder Teoscar Hernandez rounding out the five faves. Fortunately, the DraftKings and Yahoo have boosted the salaries, which should keep things a little interesting with some decision points tonight, particularly with the uncertainty at pitcher.
Gavin Lux is the punt du jour while also being in the midst of a monster heater. Over the last 30 days he has a .473 wOBA and a .281 ISO in 65 plate appearances against opposite-handed hurlers. Montas gets crushed by lefties, allowing a .224 ISO in his last 250 opposite-handed matchups.
Unlock the full potential of Stokastic’s Lineup Generator and take your MLB DFS picks to the next level with our comprehensive Lineup Generator Guide!
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Tonight it looks like RHP Romel Blanco is someone to target in the sports wagering world, for the under on 6.5 strikeouts. This is not a sexy bet, but it can help mitigate some of the downside disappointment on the DFS side of the equation as well.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on FanDuel, where it is available at -148 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -156 “true odds” for the late bloomer to strike out at fewer than seven hitters tonight.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Fliff posting a -190 line for a NEGATIVE 7%, while PointsBet is lowering the line to under 5.5 with a +115 line, which is still a -4% ROI.
Tonight Blanco projects for 5.8 strikeouts, which is well below the seven needed for this under to fail. In his last nine starts, he has struck out five, seven, nine, five, five, seven, four, five and four batters. The Tampa lineup is dreadful compared to what we have seen over the last half decade, but the projected lineup trades limited strikeouts, for contact and limited power.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Wednesday, Aug. 14
Tonight there is minimal risk for precipitation, though Boston and New York warrant monitoring up through first pitch. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
