MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Oct. 5
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
The 34-year-old ace began his career with the Mets, all the way back in 2013, though he has been with the Phillies since 2020. This year he led the National League with a 0.96 WHIP, ranking third overall behind only likely American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal (0.92) and Seattle ace Logan Gilbert (0.89). This year, Wheeler has squared off against his former squad only once, holding them to two runs, eight baserunners and one longball to Brandon Nimmo, with eight strikeouts in seven innings. This game was just two weeks ago, though it really does not have much bearing on Saturday’s action.
Similarly Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor also have had personal success against Wheeler, but they are the best three hitters for New York, so that is not particularly surprising, or actionable.
Perusing OddsShopper live odds, we can also get a good look at the landscape today with both the five-inning and seven-inning moneylines that are posted on the dashboard. Wheeler and the Mets trail only their Big Apple rivals and RHP Gerrit Cole in those metrics, with San Diego a whisker behind.
Wheeler is in top form heading into this game, having allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last 11 appearances. Plus it has been a week since his last start, so he should be feeling as refreshed as any pitcher could be after logging a 200 inning season.
Strikeouts of course are the currency of the realm for MLB DFS and they are abundant with the Tigers. Six of the nine hitters in the projected lineup had a 23.7% or greater strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers this season, with league average usually in the 22.5% range over the last couple of seasons. RHP Tanner Bibee saw his strikeout rate jump from 24.1% last season, to 26.2% this year.
This will be the fifth time that the 25-year-old has faced the Motor City Kitties, with the last three meeting occurring in July. Still there is not a lot of familiarity in either direction, with Riley Green (12 at bats) and Zach McKinstry (13 at bats), the only Tigers with double-digit at bats against Bibee.
The series is shaping up to be a crazy one, with a young Detroit squad in “Just happy to be here.” mode, outperforming all expectations. The Guardians have their own uncertainty, mostly around who will be pitching after Bibee, but that is Monday’s problem.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Philadelphia Phillies
The Mets have said that RHP Kodai Senga is going to start this game, but it is important to note that he made only one appearance this season, back in late-July. Injuries kept him out of commission until the start of July, with the former Japanese league star getting four rehabilitation outings in the minors. He faced Atlanta, lasting just 73 pitches – before being shut down again. On Sept. 21, he tossed one inning, going 15 pitches for Triple-A Syracuse.
Sengai and manager Carlos Mendoza have been cagey about workload expectations, with each essentially saying pick a number. To add to the fun, LHP David Peterson has declared himself ready to go if his name is called, after closing out the Wild Card Series in Milwaukee with a save, on eight pitches. RHP Luis Severino is the scheduled starter for Monday, so best guess is some sort of mix between Senga and Peterson. Also, to save readers from looking it up, Peterson’s last start was Sunday, so if we consider Thursday as his “throw day” then it makes sense he is the “bulk option” coming in after what will probably be only an inning or two of Senga.
This uncertainty does take both pitchers out of consideration for those making fewer than 20 lineups, but it also means those wonderful people working on projection systems are going to need to be making some serious assumptions, for a slate that locks early – against a full-day of College Football, with some of the projectors maybe feeling a little under the weather after a festive Friday night. Rest assured, the Stokastic projection crew is all over this situation.
Your Ol’ Pal loves Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, since they are elite power options, regardless of if it is a lefty or righty on the mound. Short-slate, playoff baseball is all about surviving at pitcher and capturing the home runs when searching for a “min cash” or playing H2H contests. This dynamic duo for the Phillies are also priority one-off options, as well as being foundational pieces of any stack.
Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos of course will be popular with those gamers backing Philadelphia, but there is no need to shy away from them. Salaries are loose enough across the main DFS sites, that gamers will be able to put out a strong stack from the Phillies, while also rostering a top pitcher. That means looking for differentiation elsewhere is key. If Austin Hayes is in the lineup, he likely will be at the bottom of the order, making it a good possibility he avoids a same-handed matchup against Senga, but gains the platoon-advantage over Peterson, which makes him an incredibly appealing discount dandy.
That said, for those who missed this postseason strategy recommendation from the Wild Card Round, here it is once more:
Keep in mind that playoff baseball is a fickle DFS sport. All of the offenses are good, and so are the pitchers. Plus, teams have fully rested bullpens and can also turn to back-of-the-rotation starters as additional options. Road teams have added pressure in the Wild Card Series since they have to win two of the three games and do not get a respite or the opportunity to play in front of their own fans.
Additionally, over-correlating lineups can be a detriment with all of the available arms. Do not be afraid to take a batter or two against your pitcher when searching for differentiation. It would be a surprise to see more than two or three pitchers close out the sixth inning today, which means hitters are going to get a couple looks at the bullpen. Plus, if it is your ace who allows a solo shot or two in an otherwise-pristine outing, there is not a lot of downside to also having them paired with the bat who does the limited damage.
Main Slate Wild Card Target: New York Yankees
New York is a very top-heavy lineup, which also has been shuffling the ancillary pieces around all season, both for injuries and ineffectiveness. The Yankees led the league with 237 home runs, but 126 of those were concentrated in Aaron Judge (58 to lead the league), Juan Soto (41, ranking fourth) and Giancarlo Stanton (27).
RHP Michael Wacha has never really gotten respect in the DFS world, because he is not a strikeout pitcher. However, his best attribute is absorbing hits, particularly extra-base hits, while limiting runs. This means that while he is a better “real life” pitcher than a DFS option, he is far from an easy mark.
Pop Quiz: True or False, Wacha had a top-20 ERA this season. Okay, of course it is going to be true – but how many of you knew that and also would have guess that he had a 3.35 ERA, which was actually his highest over the last three seasons.
While we never love small sample sizes, let’s just take a look and see how the current Yankees have performed against Wacha. We have Soto who is 2-for-5, .400 with no extra-base hits, two strikeouts and one walk. The most successful Bronx Bomber is Anthony Rizzo, who is 22-for-56, with three home runs, two doubles and only five strikeout, with four walks. However, he and Wacha squared off for years in the National League Central, when they were far younger than they are now.
What about Judge? Well he has only one hit in 16 at bats against Wacha, striking out 11 times, with three walks. Does that mean Wacha owns him and Judge is going for a golden sombrero tonight – of course not, but it does demonstrate that Wacha is not going to be scared against this lineup, but the stalwarts absolutely could “get theirs” against him. That friends, is a wild card.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day
RHP Kodai Senga received some serious analysis above and he is also someone to target in the sports wagering world for the under on his 2.5 strikeouts prop.
The Portfolio EV model has the southpaw projected for 2.7 strikeouts, which assumes is going to to go more than one inning, but it is still short of the three he will need for the 2.5 under to fail.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Fliff where it is available at +125 odds.
Portfolio EV shows this wager has +120 “true odds,” which brings an appealing ROI of 2.4%. We can see that Caesars has a +106 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 6% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
DraftKings is at +120, which is right around breakeven, though a more accessible line, for those who do not have an account on Fliff click here for details on sign-up offers available at Fliff.
While we do not know the workload for Senga, something in the 15-to-25 pitch range seems reasonable. Looking at the first five hitters, Schwarber strikes out at an abysmal 29.5% of the time against right-handed hurlers, but he also has about a 20% chance of getting an extra base hit. Turner (18.5%), Harper (21.5%), Castellanos (20.2%), Alec Bohm (16.6%) and Bryson Stott (15.2%) are all below league average. That is what makes this offering an interesting wager.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
