MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 28
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Today will be the 31st start of the season for Heaney, which is a career-high for the oft-injured hurler. Heaney also has logged 156 innings, which is is 8.2 more than last year and the most since 2018. Heaney has averaged exactly one strikeout per frame this season and has a chance to keep his 3.98 ERA under 4.00 with a decent outing.
Los Angeles is playing out the string, with a lineup filled with rookies. Jack Lopez, Eric Wagaman and Gustavo Campero are getting their first taste of MLB life and this trio has 39 combined plate appearances against southpaws in The Show. The Halos are likely to start Michael Stefanic and Jordyn Adams while their left-handed counterparts watch from the dugout. This duo has 162 and 21 career plate appearances against southpaws.
That means if Heaney can neutralize the likes of Taylor Ward, Logan O’Hoppe, Brandon Drury and journeyman Kevin Pillar, he should be able to vie for top fantasy honors.
That leaves RHP Emerson Hancock as the next man up, with a top-shelf matchup against Oakland. The sixth-overall selection of the 2020 MLB Draft got a taste of The Show last year, logging a dozen innings. This year he got his first chance at the Triple-A level and it looks like he will be up with the parent club going forward. Strikeouts are not really a part of Hancock’s game, with 5.6 per nine in his 67.1 big league innings, with ZiPS, Steamer and The Bat expecting him to be in the 6.5 per nine range. That said, he definitely should carve out a solid career as a back-of-the-rotation starter, though he is more substance than flash or upside.
Over their last 10 games, the Athletics have pushed only 26 runners across the plate. The team does have power from both sides of the plate, but strikeouts and a lack of consistent baserunners make them a team to target with all pitchers. Though he is ready for a 90-pitch workload, it would be a surprise to see the 25-year-old Hancock go beyond the fifth inning tonight.
This will be the fourth appearance for Yamamoto, who missed nearly three months with a rotator cuff/shoulder issue. He has seen his workload increase from 59 to 72 to 79 pitches, but with him being the second best healthy pitcher behind Jack Flaherty, sorry Clayton Kershaw, why would the Dodgers push him for more than 70-to-75 pitches or four innings? Though that could be enough for him to put up a meaningful score, considering the rest of the flotsam and jetsam that makes up the pitcher pool.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Vasquez was moved between the Padres and Triple-A El Paso eight times this season, returning to San Diego after spending September with the Chihuahuas.
The 25-year-old has performed relatively well in in the minors, but that has not translated against big league batsmen. In 122 Triple-A innings, he has collected 10.3 strikeouts per nine frames, though that has dipped dramatically to 6.3 per nine in his 129.2 innings, between the Yankees and Friars.
Going right back to the usual suspects is key, with Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Eugenio Suarez, Joc Pederson and Christian Walker, forming the core crew for any Arizona stacks. Depending on where he lands in the lineup, Jake McCarthy is also an option with his stolen base upside and the D’Backs in must-win mode.
Vasquez is also susceptible to power from both sides of the plate, which can facilitate a path to crooked numbers for opposing offenses. Considering that San Diego has clinched the top wild card ticket, they may be content to just let Vasquez ride this one out as long as he can, before bringing in some lesser relievers.
Main Slate Wild Card Target: New York Mets
New York is in the three-team scrum with Atlanta and Arizona, with only two teams making the playoffs. Francisco Lindor returned to action last night, after missing the better part of two weeks with a sore back. This is going to be a pain management situation going forward and with backs being tricky, he has elevated risk of leaving the game. He did have a pair of hits and a walk on Friday, so casuals may believe he is good to go. DFS gamers need to be cognizant of the downside, though leaving the best hitter out of stacks, particularly a switch-hitter in a bullpen game, seems like folly.
Mark Vientos has had a stellar breakout this year and he is a capable hitter, with power upside against righties and lefties. The same goes for Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, with this foursome likely being at the top of the lineup card. Starling Marte has struggled against same-handed hurlers, but he is not really a pinch hit risk. J.D. Martinez could always run into one, but he is a boom-bust option at this point, with zero fantasy points well within his range of outcomes.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
RHP Justin Verlander is one of the best pitchers in the history of the game, but Father Time is undefeated. That makes it a savvy strategy to target the 41-year-old in the sports wagering market.
The Portfolio EV model has the elder statesman projected for 4.6 strikeouts, which is above the 4.5 threshold, but of course that is still below the five needed for this under to lose and there are no fractional strikeouts.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on FanDuel where it is available at +750 odds.
Portfolio EV shows this wager has -129 “true odds,” and while that is a slim ROI 2.9%, this is still a favorable wager.
We can see that Fliff has a -145 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 6% ROI. Be a smart shopper!
In his four September outings, Verlander has logged 107, 75, 89 and 86 pitches. These have resulted in three, zero, two and four strikeouts, with the venerable veteran closing out the fifth inning only once. Houston has clinched the AL West and really can’t change their seeding, so this is likely a maintenance start, making it probably that Verlander is only in the mix for 70 or so pitches today or four innings.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
