Friday has a giant 14-game featured slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is reaching forward to grab the 6:40 p.m. ET tilt, including all 15 games in their largest tournaments. Today, we’ll dive into MLB DFS projections and use Stokastic’s tools to see how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers, and create optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Chris Sale and David Festa are some of today’s core pitchers, and according to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres provide stacking opportunities as featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 23
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Chris Sale (ATL vs. WAS)
Braves vs. Nationals – 3.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
$11,100 at DraftKings
$11,500 at FanDuel
$59 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool is running hot with all of the aces in action tonight. The pitching options are plentiful up and down the salary sheet, so let personal preference be a strong determining factor. Nobody should be forced into playing a hurler they are not comfortable with, considering the abundance of options tonight.
While LHP Chris Sale has the bucks-deluxe salary, it is important to note that there are nearly 40 position players at $3,000 or less in the projected lineups on DraftKings, a similar number on FanDuel at $2,500 and below, with Yahoo providing eight players at $9 or below who should be lineup mainstays.
There is not much to add about Sale; he has been in this article multiple times since the All-Star Break, and he is battling for the National League Cy Young Award, with RHP Zack Wheeler as the other frontrunner. Sale is having a career season after five years of injuries and ineffectiveness, and he will be taking on a watered-down Washington squad.
You will hear from other analysts that the Nationals do not strike out a lot against lefties. While that is true, with the projected lineup having a solid 18.7% strikeout rate against southpaws, most of the Nats have never faced Sale. Excluding Joey Gallo, who is not likely to be in the lineup against Sale (particularly since he has struck out nine times in 12 career at-bats), the rest of the hitters expected to be in the lineup tonight have a grand total of 21 at-bats against him, with four hits (.190 average), 10 strikeouts (47%) and one walk.
Other top-shelf options tonight include LHP Carlos Rodon hosting the Colorado Rockies, RHP Luis Castillo hosting the San Francisco Giants and RHP Chris Bassitt against the visiting Anaheim Angels.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP David Festa (MIN vs. STL)
Twins vs. Cardinals – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$7,100 at DraftKings
$7,300 at FanDuel
$35 at Yahoo
There are some questions marks with the discount dandies tonight, but if there were no fears, then they would not be so cheap. RHP Aaron Civale is in Oakland against the Athletics, who have pop, along with strikeouts. His performances have been uneven but better since being moved to Milwaukee.
In Seattle, RHP Hayden Birdsong will be facing the Mariners, who have the highest strikeout rate in the league, the fourth-fewest runs scored and a new manager debuting tonight in former catcher Dan Wilson. It is going to be cold and damp in the Pacific Northwest with the retractable roof likely being closed, though that “carport” effect does nothing for the temperature. That is good for the pitchers, but the rookie has slipped after a strong debut. The strikeouts will be there, so he is in play, but having a former franchise hero step in as the new manager could create some extra variables.
That brings us to RHP David Festa, who is at home and taking on a Cardinals squad that has been barely mediocre on the road. Festa is on a different trajectory from his fellow rookie Birdsong, having struggled out of the gate but righting the ship over his last four starts. Neither youngster should be expected to make it beyond the fifth inning, which is why they remain in a muddled trio with Civale. This should make for a fun tournament slate with so many viable combinations that could lead rosters to the top of the leaderboards on DraftKings and Yahoo.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks at Red Sox – 4.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Brayan Bello
DK Top Stack %: 7.7%
FD Top Stack %: 7.0%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is looking beyond the 4.6 implied run total for the Arizona Diamondbacks and counting on RHP Brayan Bello to suffer a misstep or two. Left-handed batsmen are his kryptonite, with a .209 ISO last year rising to .222 this season.
Ketel Marte landed on the injured reserve with an ankle issue, while Christian Walker is still not close to returning. Of course, that should just help push more lefties to the top of the order. Priorities include outfielders Joc Pederson (.268 ISO, 329 plate appearances), Corbin Carroll (.193 ISO, 370 PAs) and Jake McCarthy (.174 ISO, 253). Between the missing bats and Boston having just one lefty in the bullpen, Pederson’s pinch-hit risks are rather low for this series.
Young catcher Adrian Del Castillo (.370 ISO, 32 PAs), Eugenio Suarez (.204 ISO, 346 PAs) and switch-hitter Josh Bell (.171 ISO, 353 PAs) also have hammered right-handed pitching this season. Pavin Smith should also be in the lineup given the injuries. This season in Triple-A, he has a .318/.433/.564 triple-slash line, buoyed by the small ballparks of the Pacific Coast League. He has been bouncing between The Show and the bus leagues due to the abundance of other outfielders that have been moving through the organization’s top level.
Harness the full potential of Stokastic’s Lineup Generator and enhance your MLB DFS picks with our comprehensive Lineup Generator Guide!
Late Slate Primary Target: San Diego Padres
Padres vs. Mets – 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Paul Blackburn
DK Top Stack %: 12.5%
FD Top Stack %: 12.9%
The Padres are in play for the featured slate, but San Diego stacks really stand out on the late slate. RHP Paul Blackburn is usually adequate against inferior competition and then a mixed bag with ugly tendencies against elite offenses. The Friars are not quite elite without Fernando Tatis Jr., but the team is still above average with concentrated production.
Left-handed power has been an issue for Blackburn this season, with opposite-handed hitters compiling a .367 wOBA and a .222 ISO. He also has seen his strikeout rate slide down to 19.3%, which can lead to more runners on base and, of course, bigger numbers on the scoreboard.
Rookie Jackson Merrill has been amazing when holding the platoon advantage, boasting a .379 wOBA and a .219 ISO against righties. Jake Cronenworth is a noted masher, and switch-hitter Jurickson Profar does great work from the left side of the plate. Manny Machado is a stalwart against all pitchers, anchoring the heart of the order, with leadoff man Luis Arraez and veteran David Peralta providing additional options for various roster configurations.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Tonight we can look to target RHP Nathan Eovaldi in the sports wagering world for the under on his 4.5 strikeouts.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on FanDuel, where it is available at +130 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has +122 “true odds” for the veteran strikeout artist to fall below five whiffs. This works out to a solid 3.7% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced with Fliff posting a +100 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 10% expected ROI.
It is important to note that Eovaldi projects for 4.8 strikeouts tonight, which is just below the five needed for this wager to fail, giving a 45% probability of coming to fruition. That is why we are getting the +130 line, and pretty much anything below +125 should be skipped over.
The projected lineup for Cleveland has an 18.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, which is well below league average. Eovaldi has been solid with a 23.9% strikeout rate over the last two years, but it has been feast or famine rather than a steady rate.
In his last 10 games, he has six, four, seven, two, 10, two, seven, five, six and four strikeouts. That volatility, the matchup and the plus money make this a solid wager to target.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Friday, Aug. 23
The fun continues, with Mother Nature again smiling on the baseball world with favorable weather across the slate. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, be sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
