Friday sees the fun take the shape of a 10-game featured slate locking at 7:05 p.m. on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo has elected to include the games beginning at 6:40 p.m. ET, so do not miss the first pitch! Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Garrett Crochet and Chriss Bassitt as the key arms, while the Astros and Mariners are the teams to stack.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 7
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Garrett Crochet (CHW vs. BOS)
White Sox vs. Red Sox – 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$8,900 at DraftKings
$10,900 at FanDuel
$56 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitcher’s Tool likes LHP Garrett Crochet, with his ability to knit together ample strikeouts. The rookie is getting the ace treatment already with his five-figure salary on FanDuel and cracking the $55 barrier on Yahoo.
Across his last seven starts, spanning 40 innings, the 24-year-old southpaw has been sublime with 11.93 strikeouts per nine innings, making his DFS backers happy. He also has a 1.35 ERA, 1.99 FIP, 2.14 xFIP and five quality starts in this stretch, thrilling even the most ardent seam-heads.
The projected Boston lineup has a 25.4% strikeout rate against lefties since the start of last year, with a pitiful .130 ISO. Tyler O’Neill, Rafael Devers and journeyman Garrett Cooper are the only frightening bats in the lineup. There is a decent chance that Bobby Dalbec will be in the mix, with the human wind machine having a 52.2% strikeout rate in his last 46 righty-lefty matchups. Enjoy!
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Lance Lynn (STL vs. COL)
Cardinals vs. Rockies – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
$7,400 at DraftKings
$7,500 at FanDuel
$39 at Yahoo
Tonight, RHP Lance Lynn gets to take on the Rockies, who lose their offensive power the further away they are from Coors Field. Yes, we have picked on Lynn recently but also ridden with the 37-year-old, which is going to happen with his mix of allowing power while still racking up strikeouts against inferior competition.
The venerable veteran has allowed only seven longballs this season after allowing 2.2 per nine innings last year. He also has been lucky in the last three games, with one earned run, but eight total runs allowed. Fortunately, the Colorado offense is rather forgiving, as is Lynn’s salary.
Tonight’s projected lineup for the Rockies has a 27.6% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers over the last season and change, along with a .147 ISO. It is important to note that the mediocre power metric still gives credit for all the Coors Field production. Yikes!
Late Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Chris Bassitt (TOR at OAK)
Blue Jays at Athletics – 3.64 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$8,300 at DraftKings
$8,700 at FanDuel
$45 at Yahoo
There is no salary relief for veteran RHP Chris Bassitt, nor should there be, as he has ceded a scant three runs over his last three starts. Since being crushed for seven runs by Los Angeles, Bassitt has been solid in 35 innings over his last six appearances, with a trio of quality starts.
Though he is not thought of as a strikeout artist, Bassitt still can generate around one whiff per inning, which is perfect for the matchup against his former team. Oakland popped off for 11 runs on Saturday in Atlanta, but the A’s have scored only half a dozen times in the four games since that outburst. There are decent hitters on the team, the challenge is that they have not all been effective at the same time, which has led to one of the least productive offenses in the league and a painful 6-17 stretch of games.
The projected lineup does have three hitters with a .200 ISO or higher against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. However, there are also six batters who strike out at a 25% rate or worse in that same time frame. Bassitt should be like a dog with a bone tonight in this matchup.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Seattle Mariners
Mariners at Royals – 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Daniel Lynch
DK Top Stack %: 9.1%
FD Top Stack %: 8.8%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool just can’t quit the Mariners. Though, tonight they do have a matchup against LHP Daniel Lynch IV, who has not had much luck on the strikeout front. Of course, that could change tonight against the most K-happy team in the league, but it also is not the focus of his pitching style.
In the last month, Lynch has been up and down from the minors three times. The 27-year-old has 45.1 innings with Triple-A Omaha, allowing a 4.76 ERA and striking out just 6.8 batters per nine innings. Lynch has trouble with right-handed power, which is something that the Mariners have up and down the lineup. Though the team still has the fewest doubles in the league, it is top 10 for home runs and has some momentum, having won nine of the last 11 games.
Dylan Moore and Mitch Garver are tremendous against lefties, with Ty France and J.P. Crawford more than holding their own. For all his disappointments at the plate this season, Julio Rodriguez at least is making contact against opposite-handed hurlers. Switch-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh is always in play, and even Mitch Haniger has a good history in righty-lefty matchups.
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Late Slate Target: Houston Astros
Astros at Angels – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Griffin Canning
DK Top Stack %: 9.2%
FD Top Stack %: 9.1%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool would like to commend RHP Griffin Canning for shutting down the recommended Seattle stack last Sunday, but it is also important to note that the 28-year-old also lucked into a season-high 13 ground ball outs.
Houston easily has more power than the Mariners while also curtailing strikeouts to just 19.0% over the last two seasons against right-handed pitching. Canning has been mediocre against power, but his paltry 16.3% strikeout and 33.2% fly ball rates this season are going to lead to some spectacular fireworks at some point.
Kyle Tucker’s injury does weaken the ‘Stros lineup, but Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and catcher Yainer Diaz remain potent producers. Plus, Jeremy Pena and Jake Meyers should see a bump in the batting order, which gives them some intriguing potential. Meyers has the better salary and is the more desirable option, though Pena does have a place and purpose on the late slate.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Bryce Miller has been solid this season, but he is among the current wagers being highlighted by the OddsShopper model for the under on his 4.5 strikeouts prop. The best line is the -104 currently available at FanDuel.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -112 “true odds,” so the -104 line brings a decent 3.50% expected ROI.
We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with shops like Fliff posting a line of -125, which is a losing proposition. Be a savvy shopper!
Miller projects for 4.6 strikeouts tonight, and while that is just above the 4.5 threshold, it is still below the five needed for the under to lose. Kansas City continues to be a disciplined team at the plate, with the projected roster striking out just 18.9% of the time against right-handed hurlers this season. Miller has four or fewer strikeouts in three of his last six outings, which is right about in line with the 53% likelihood of him falling short of the five-strikeout milestone tonight.
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Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Friday, June 7
It would seem that the game in Kansas City is the only venue with any precipitation risk, and it looks like a non-event. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
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