MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 4
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
This change served him well, with Atlanta selecting him in the second round of the 2021 MLB Draft. Prior to embarking on his professional career, Schwellenbach had Tommy John surgery, delaying his debut until 2023. He was decent though 65 innings in the low-minors, then in 2024 he leveled up, logging 45 MiLB frames before getting called up to The Show. Expect a little regression in the strikeout department, though there still is upside based on matchups, with the budding frontline starter projecting for around one per frame this season.
The projected Miami lineup has five hitters who have struck out at least 30% of the time against right-handed hurlers since the start of last season. It is still a small sample size for Kyle Stowers, Matt Mervis, Griffin Conine, Graham Pauley and Dane Myers, with just under 500 aggregate plate appearances, but how many of these names do you actually recognize? If Schwellenbach is able to mitigate the production of Xavier Edwards, Jonah Bride and Otto Lopez, who are far from household names themselves, he should be in line for a solid DFS stat line.
The main way to attack Pfaadt is with power from hitters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate. Opposite-handed batsmen have a .183 ISO in the last 399 plate appearances and a 19.8% strikeout rate. By comparison, same-handed hitters were held to a .146 ISO and a 28.8% strikeout rate across 386 plate appearances.
Washington will be rolling with lefties CJ Abrams, Nathaniel Lowe, Luis Garcia and switch-hitter Josh Bell. This is an experienced, though not insurmountable obstacle for Pfaadt, who will also be facing youngsters James Wood, Jacob Young and Dylan Crews, who are still finding their sea legs.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Tampa Bay Rays
DraftKings is a similar story, with Tampa receiving top-5 marks in the pertinent metrics. This also factors in that the DraftKings roster construction includes a pair of starting pitchers, along with requiring gamers to roster a catcher as well.
Injuries have limited RHP Tyler Mahle to just under 160 innings over the last three seasons, including 12.2 last year and 25.2 in 2023. This is his age-30 season, and the once-promising prospect has a long row to hoe to regain MLB relevance. Do not let the vague name recognition keep you away from the Rays.
Brandon Lowe is off to a strong start, and he should be in the two-hole against right-handed hurlers. Yandy Diaz is a non-traditional leadoff man, but the “professional hitter” is an on-base machine while also being able to work counts and burn through pitches.
Jake Mangum is a fun story, but he is going to be left without a chair when the music stops, so enjoy the ride with the 29-year-old rookie. Kameron Misner is two years younger than Mangum, though he has a similar “less than enthusiastic” prospect profile. Leave it to the Rays to squeeze out value from their Nos. 27 and 29 prospects.
Jonathan Aranda, on the other hand, is a well-kept secret who looks to be on the cusp of breaking out like so many other Tampa projects, with strong extra-base hit upside. For those looking to go deeper into the lineup, Junior Caminero and veteran catcher Danny Jansen are in play.
Main Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Irvin’s best attribute is answering the bell every five days or so and taking the mound. Last year, he made 33 starts, giving him a share of the league lead. Of course, he also led the league with 14 losses, though much of that can be laid at the feet of a subpar offense backing him up. Left-handed power has been an issue for the 28-year-old, with opposing hitters posting a .213 ISO since the start of last year. While former first base stalwart Christian Walker is now in Houston, the Diamondbacks did well in bringing over Josh Naylor from Cleveland. The former Guardian crushes when holding the platoon advantage, boasting a .220 ISO with only a 15.5% strikeout rate in his last 465 opportunities.
Corbin Carroll is a terror on the basepaths, but he also has home run upside in lefty-righty matchups, making him a priority in stacks or as a one-off. Switch-hitter Ketel Marte usually slides down to the two-hole when Carroll draws leadoff honors against righties, making this duo the perfect building blocks in front of Naylor. Pavin Smith should see a promotion up the order, with catcher Gabriel Moreno and shortstop Geraldo Perdomo falling down to the bottom. We will discuss this duo as discount dandies against southpaws, though they can be skipped over today.
Finally, that leaves Lourdes Gurriel and Eugenio Suarez being slotted in among the lefties, with each being able to hold their own in same-handed matchups. Suarez is in the midst of a heater, hitting five home runs and a double in his 24 at-bats this season. That is going to regress soon, but similar to Mangum above and following the advice of noted baseball philosopher Crash Davis, “Respect the streak; they do not happen often.”
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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