Tuesday keeps the week moving with a 10-game featured slate and a first pitch time of 7:07 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Logan Gilbert and Dylan Cease as key arms, with the Dodgers and Cubs offenses shaping up as two of the best stacks on the slate.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 16
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Gilbert vs. Cincinnati Reds — 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,500 | FanDuel $10,200 | Yahoo $48
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Logan Gilbert as a top-3 option tonight, with a nice mix of matchup, current form, salary and popularity — oh, plus the favorable pitching weather in Seattle, where it will be in the low-50s with a 6 to 10 mph breeze coming in from left field.
Gilbert has been off to a strong start this season, though he is still looking for his first victory. The Mariners went to the 10th inning in two of his three starts, so that first dub has been elusive. In his three outings, he has a 2.66 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 23 strikeouts and only three walks across 20.1 innings. He has allowed four home runs but otherwise has been solid.
Tonight will be the 92nd start of his career, during which he has logged 516 innings with a tick shy of a strikeout per frame while issuing just 2.02 walks per nine innings and generally limiting home runs (just 1.20 per nine). His fastball is strong, sitting in the mid-90s, and this year he has added a cutter into the mix, with his slider and split-finger fastball serving as secondary offerings to his standard heat.
Cincinnati has above-average power up and down the lineup, though that is also buoyed by calling the launching pad also known as Great American Ballpark home. The Reds projected lineup has a 25.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers over the last season and change, with four of the hitters fanning at a 27% rate or higher.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Dylan Cease at Milwaukee Brewers — 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,700 | FanDuel $9,500 | Yahoo $51
There is not much salary relief for RHP Dylan Cease on DraftKings or Yahoo, where gamers are required to roster two pitchers. He is the most popular option on FanDuel (20.8%), just edging out RHP Lance Lynn (15.4%), who gets a cherry matchup in Oakland against the anemic Athletics. Cease is the seventh-most popular pitcher over on DraftKings, and he slots in as the ninth on Yahoo.
The Milwaukee lineup definitely takes a step back with Christian Yelich injured, as even though he is no longer at the apex of his talents, he is a former MVP and two-time batting champion. Rowdy Tellez and Carlos Santana moving on has further thinned things out. Rhys Hoskins is a great replacement, but he is just one person who also missed all of last year with a knee injury.
For those worried about the premium salary, RHP Hunter Greene is an alternative in Seattle against the Mariners and, of course, there is the aforementioned Lynn.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LHP Mitchell Parker — 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is liking the matchup for the Los Angeles Dodgers against LHP Patrick Corbin. In a fun twist, Corbin has not allowed a home run in his last two starts, but he still has ceded 11 runs in 11.2 innings. While the four extra-base hits included three doubles and a triple, it was not the power that we typically see the 34-year-old southpaw facilitate.
Monday night LHP Mitchell Parker became the first Washington pitcher to earn a victory in their debut since RHP Stephen Strasburg back in 2010. Considering he was an unheralded prospect of little note, it would be surprising if a second shaky southpaw shut down the Dodgers again tonight.
The only thing potentially in Corbin’s favor is that Chris Taylor is completely lost at the plate, with just one hit in 33 at-bats, and Enrique Hernandez has not been much better. One or both could lose their spot in the lineup against lefties, so things could get worse for Corbin.
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani are, of course, the trio to target, and thankfully DraftKings and Yahoo have done a decent job of boosting salaries, though FanDuel is asleep at the switch. Teoscar Hernandez profiles well for a home run tonight and at a minimum an extra-base hit. He makes for a terrific one-off, as does catcher Will Smith if he is in his customary cleanup role.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Chicago Cubs at LHP Tommy Henry — 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
The Cubs are not as daunting now that Seiya Suzuki has joined Patrick Wisdom on the injured list, but that opens up another lineup spot for a cheaper bat. LHP Tommy Henry has not been good in his 150 innings in The Show, falling short of even his low-end projections. Walks and power are high, while the strikeouts were nearly nonexistent last year and every outing was an adventure.
There is still time to turn things around a little since he will be celebrating just his 27th birthday in July, but the sand is starting to run out in the hourglass of opportunities.
Cody Bellinger has a wicked .416 wOBA and .258 ISO in his last 195 same-handed matchups, which has been a weakness of Henry’s. The reclamation of his career that occurred last season seems to be holding for the 2019 National League MVP, and while he may not again reach the heights he did early in his career with the Dodgers, Bellinger looks to at least be well beyond the doldrums.
Switch-hitters Garrett Cooper and Ian Happ both do excellent work when swinging the stick from the right side of the plate. Dansby Swanson and Christopher Morel have above-average pop with the platoon advantage, and leadoff man Nico Hoerner gets plenty of contact. That makes the Cubbies an excellent synergy play, as they represent most positions, are malleable with salaries and we know where the production should be consolidated.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Jose Soriano is the fourth-best prospect in the Angels system, but that is not much of a validation since he was never even close to making any top-100 industry lists. That makes targeting the under for his 4.5 strikeouts prop. OddsShopper shows this bet has +113 “true odds,” and the +130 line currently available at Hard Rock provides substantial 7.8% expected return on investment (ROI).
It is important to note that the probability of Soriano recording fewer than five strikeouts is less than half the time at 47%. That is why it is crucial to get this wager at plus money.
This will be just the second start of Soriano’s career, as he had 38 appearances as a reliever last year, along with his first two outings this season. His pitch count has increased from 34 to 43 to 72 in his last game, and he has nine strikeouts across his 10 innings.
The projected Tampa Bay lineup has only Randy Arozarena (23.4%) and Jose Siri (34.7%) striking out above 22% of the time against right-handed pitchers since the start of last year. The Rays have above-average power, and there is a good chance they can send Soriano to the showers before he gets to the crucial fifth strikeout.
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Final Thoughts for Tuesday, April 16 — MLB DFS Picks
The lone weather worry is in the Windy City, with the Kansas City Royals visiting the Chicago White Sox. Rain is in the forecast, along with miserable wind and temperatures in the mid-60s. Keep an eye on this one, as it has an elevated risk of being cancelled.
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