MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 21
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Rodon has allowed a home run in 20 of his 30 (67%) starts, with seven (23%) resulting in multi-home run efforts by the opposition. Strikeouts remain his colling card, with 10.23 per nine innings a tick above his career rate and his 2.86 walks per nine almost half a free pass below his traditional average. Over his last four games, he has allowed five home runs, with seven walks and a wicked 33 strikeouts in 23 innings.
The active roster for Oakland, leads the league with a .206 ISO against southpaws this season, which is beyond elite. However, the team is fifth with a 25.8% strikeout rate and 28th with a .292 on base percentage. Empty extra-base hits and solo home runs are something that Rodon can easily offset with his strikeout upside.
Currently, Blanco ranks fifth overall with his 2.88 ERA, while also recording nearly one strikeout per inning. He does allow power to lefties (.207 ISO, 423 batters faced), with a 35.6% fly ball rate. Fortunately, he will only need to navigate the likes of Nolan Schaunel, Niko Kavadas and Mickey Moniak. The projected lineup for Los Angeles also has a 23.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, while also rolling out three inexperience youngsters in Kavadas, Eric Wagaman and Gustavo Campero.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros
Houston is currently getting attention, but not enough for the cherry matchup against LHP Reid Detmers. The 25-year-old has split his season between Triple-A (5.54 ERA) and The Show (6.05). In his last start, the Chicago White Sox tagged him for seven runs, including a trio of taters.
The ChiSox have tallied 107 fewer runs than the next worst offense in the league and 232 below the Astros, which works out to 1.5 less runs per game. The active roster for the Astros has a 123 wRC+ against southpaws this season, which is the fourth most efficient collection of batsmen. Last night they tallied nine runs, including six off of LHP Tyler Anderson, who was not able to close out the third inning.
We can definitely go back to the well once more, with the ‘Stros providing options up and down the pricing sheet, representing every key position. The first wave to target is Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker who crush same-handed hurlers. Tucker had been looking rusty after his lengthy injury layoff, but a four-hit night, with a solo shot and three runs scored, should go a long way to boosting his confidence.
Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman round out the core four, with catchers Yanier Diaz and Victor Caratini giving options at two different salary levels. Jake Meyers is a cheap power bat, as evidenced by his home run last night, with infielder Jeremy Pena also a desired target. Heck, even utility-man Maricio Dubon is in play as a discount dandy, with his past history of success against southpaws.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Cleveland Guardians
The best asset for Mikolas, is his ability to take the mound every time his name comes up in the rotation. He has made at least 30 starts in each of his last five healthy seasons, missing 2020 and getting just nine starts in 2021. Mikolas is basically pitching to contact this year, with only one walk in his last four starts and 6.39 strikeouts per nine innings, which is around his career-average, but amazing for opposing hitters and in turn, DFS stacks.
This season, Mikolas has allowed a .200 ISO to both lefties and righties, though the main focus should be on the left-handed hitters. Kyle Manzardo and Jhonkensy Noel are both lacking in experience, but certainly not power and with Mikolas not being a strikeout pitcher, this duo is popping in the model. Cleanup man Josh Naylor and switch-hitter Jose Ramirez are both profiling well against Mikolas’s pitch portfolio and even catch Bo Naylor looks like he could put one out of the park tonight.
Do not be overly concerned with the weather in St. Louis, as the current forecast has the potential afternoon showers, clearing by dinner time.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
LHP Reid Detmers is clearly in a funk. Despite a no-hitter as a rookie, he has spent quite a bit of time with the Salt Lake Bees in Triple-A. When he is locked in, he is a terrific mound presence, when he is not … well he gives up seven runs to the worst offense in the league.
The Portfolio EV model has the 25-year-old hurler for around 4.7 strikeouts tonight, which is a little higher than the 4.5 strikeouts being offered across various sportsbooks.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on DraftKings where it is available at +115 odds.
Portfolio EV shows this wager has +112 “true odds,” and while that is a slim ROI, the “plus” money aspect is nice, though also accounting for the 53% probability that the young-lefty gets to five strikeouts.
We can see that Pinnacle has a punitive -103 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 7% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Since returning from the minors, Reid has six, eight and 10 strikeouts, but he also has eight walks, four home runs and a 5.71 ERA in this stretch. The hope is that the Astros take care of business early, by putting the hammer down on Detmers.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
