Monday brings a new work week, with the MLB action locking at 6:40 p.m. ET for a five-game featured slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo has chosen to focus their main contests around the four games beginning at 7:10 p.m. ET. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Chris Sale and Andrew Abbott as tonight’s prominent pitchers. For offense, it is these hurlers’ respective teams with the Atlanta and Cincinnati bats popping in the models.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 8
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Chris Sale (ATL at ARI)
Braves at Diamondbacks – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$10,500 at DraftKings
$11,500 at FanDuel
$59 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has LHP Chris Sale earmarked as the ace of the day, which should be no surprise to anyone. This weekend, LHP Ranger Suarez had a rough outing against Atlanta, which saw him drop back to the peloton chasing after Sale and RHP Zack Wheeler, who are the unquestioned frontrunners for the National League Cy Young Award race.
Injuries limited Sale to only 151 innings between 2020 and the start of this season. The venerable veteran had moments in those games, but it looked like health and Father Time had caught up to the hurler who finished no lower than sixth in the Cy Young Award voting during the seven seasons between 2012 and 2018.
Currently Sale leads the league with an 11-3 record, 2.26 FIP, 0.913 WHIP and 6.68 strikeouts per walk — not too shabby for a 35-year-old who began his MLB journey all the way back in 2010. The Diamondbacks rank sixth in the league with a 119 wRC+ against lefties, but that should not dissuade anyone from utilizing Sale tonight. Ketel Marte has been dealing with a back injury, so he is questionable. The Diamondbacks’ efficiency is buoyed by a 16.4% strikeout rate against southpaws this season, but Sale is no ordinary lefty. If Marte is out, that leaves Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel and reserve Randal Grichuk as the most worrisome bats. Enjoy!
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Andrew Abbott (CIN vs. COL)
Reds vs. Rockies – 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
$8,200 at DraftKings
$9,500 at FanDuel
$40 at Yahoo
While the Great American Ballpark is nearly as friendly towards offenses as Coors Field, the Rockies are one of the worst road teams in the league. Colorado also is coming off a seven-game homestand, which means that the near-sea-level elevation of Cincinnati is going to have a dramatic impact on how pitches look after a week at high altitude.
It is always fun watching LHP Andrew Abbott pitch, as he has decent strikeout stuff, but it typically does not manifest in actual strikeouts, with the ball being put in play more often than not. That can also lead to Abbott nibbling around the outside of the strike zone, which burns through his pitch count and leads to walks. In his last five starts, Abbott has a crazy-high 18 walks in 27 innings, though he has allowed a scant nine earned runs.
Run prevention is key when a hurler has the pitch repertoire of Abbott, and he excels on this front, allowing three or fewer runs in 15 of his 17 (88%) starts, with four and six earned runs in the two outliers. If the Rockies were in the middle of a road trip and acclimated to the low-lands, Abbott would not be as strong of a recommendation today.
Main Slate Wild Card Target: RHP Chris Paddack (MIN at CHW)
Twins at White Sox – 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$7,500 at DraftKings
$9,000 at FanDuel
$32 at Yahoo
Tonight RHP Chris Paddack will be seeing his first action since being shut down on June 21 with arm fatigue. Paddack missed the 2022 season, undergoing his second Tommy John surgery, the first coming back in 2016. He had two appearances in The Show last year and three in the minors, for a grand total of 14.2 innings as the final stages of the lengthy rehabilitation process after that procedure.
Something around 80 pitches or five innings is probably a reasonable expectation for tonight’s workload, which makes the 28-year-old less appealing on FanDuel since he is unlikely to be in the mix for the quality start bonus. Hopefully Paddack will bounce back with the extra rest, but it is important to note that in his last two starts before landing on the injured list, he had seven combined innings, four walks, three strikeouts and two home runs against the K-happy Oakland Athletics. Caveat Emptor.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Cincinnati Reds
Reds vs. Rockies – 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Ryan Feltner
DK Top Stack %: 14.7%
FD Top Stack %: 14.4%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the Reds at home today in a matchup against RHP Ryan Feltner, who is a below-average pitcher, even when plying his trade away from Coors Field. It would appear that Feltner has his walk issues semi-figured out, but as a tradeoff, more hitters are making solid contact.
Jake Fraley is on the bereavement list, which has Edwin Rios being recalled from the minors for the next few days. Rios is scuffling at Triple-A Louisville with a .243/.340/.486 triple-slash line, but he does have 10 doubles and 11 home runs in 177 at-bats, plus he is at the literal minimum salary of $2,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel and $7 on Yahoo. Considering he has the platoon advantage, he is likely to be hitting fifth or sixth, depending on the whims of manager David Bell.
Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario, of course, are the trio to target, with Will Benson a differentiation option and leadoff man Jonathan India the best remaining synergistic play for a full stack.
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Late Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves
Braves at Diamondbacks – 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Yilber Diaz
DK Top Stack %: 12.2%
FD Top Stack %: 11.7%
Talk about a tough first matchup; tonight RHP Yilber Diaz will be making his MLB debut against Atlanta. Diaz is a hard-throwing 23-year-old, and while he is the sixth-best prospect in the Arizona system, he has just 22 innings at Triple-A and only 69 at Double-A. This is likely only a spot start, as his projected arrival time for The Show is not until mid-2025.
Diaz is barely six feet tall, so he is not as imposing on the mound and his power pitches have him giving maximum effort. It would not be a shock if that keeps some of the Atlanta bats off balance, but that may only work one time through the lineup if it even comes to fruition. Diaz has done a nice job moving up through the MiLB ranks, but he projects best as a reliever and not a starter. He has the type of stuff that could have him being an eighth inning lockdown option and potentially a closer in a couple of years.
Even without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris II, Atlanta has plenty of veteran hitters who should be able to handle a rookie feeling the bright lights of the top stage for the first time. It looks like former Seattle uber-prospect Jarred Kelenic really did need a change of scenery, and he has performed well since being promoted from the bottom of the order to the leadoff slot via attrition.
Marcell Ozuna is absolutely mashing the ball, and since the start of last season, he has a ridiculous .280 ISO and a .282/.358/.561 triple-slash line. Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley are two of the best hitters in the game, and we haven’t even mentioned Matt Olson yet. This is still a deep lineup that is the envy of the bottom half of the league, even without the two injured outfielders.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Chris Paddack is in play as an SP2 for his DFS matchup, but he is also someone to target against in the sports wagering world for his under 3.5 strikeouts, which is available at +130 on DraftKings.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +119 “true odds” for Paddack to fall under this threshold, which brings a festive 4.9% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced sharp book Pinnacle all the way down at a +101 line, which maths out to a NEGATIVE 9% expected ROI.
Even prior to his “tired arm” situation, Paddack struck out fewer than four hitters in six of his 15 (40%) starts. Between his layoff, likely pitch cap and general ineffectiveness, there is a 46% probability that he will fall short of the four strikeouts needed for this under to fail. That still means we want this wager at +119 odds or better, which is currently facilitated by DraftKings, with Fanatics, ESPN BET and Caesars also offering plus money above that threshold.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Monday, July 8
Tonight there should not be any precipitation concerns, though as always give things a once over with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.
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