Tuesday keeps the week moving along with an 11-game featured slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET lock on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is reaching forward to collect all 15 games, with a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Before diving into our MLB DFS picks, we’ll utilize Stokastic’s tools to identify the top MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Chris Sale and Logan Gilbert as building blocks, with the Royals and Astros as pivots away from the Coors Field Extravaganza.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 23
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Chris Sale (ATL vs. CIN)
Braves vs. Reds – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
$10,500 at DraftKings
$11,200 at FanDuel
$59 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool loves the baseball irony of LHP Chris Sale giving up five runs in Miami to the Marlins in mid-April and eight runs to the Oakland Athletics at the beginning of June. In 15 of 16 other games, he has allowed two or fewer runs. This is why he has the best odds in the National League Cy Young Award race.
Cincinnati is a solid offense, but it is merely league average against lefties and when on the road. The projected lineup for the Reds has a 25.6% strikeout rate against left-handed hurlers this season, with an anemic .129 ISO. We are paying full freight to set Sale (cwidt) tonight with this ace, but it should be a priority.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA vs. LAA)
Mariners vs. Angels – 3.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$10,000 at DraftKings
$10,800 at FanDuel
$54 at Yahoo
The Mariner magic is fading quickly as the team has lost five of the last six games, scoring a scant two runs or fewer in four of those tilts. The pitching is still strong, but without any offensive presence, and now with Julio Rodriguez and J.P Crawford dinged up, the playoff hopes are evaporating quickly.
RHP Logan Gilbert made his first All-Star Game appearance last week, though he did not actually pitch in the exhibition since he was coming off a seven-inning, scoreless effort against the Angels in Anaheim on Sunday. That outcome, of course, has no impact on tonight’s performance, but it is still comforting to see. Gilbert leads the league with an 0.87 WHIP, while his 2.79 ERA is just inside the top 10. The lone knock against him is that he has only 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings this season, which is below his 8.8 career average.
Over the last eight games, Anaheim has averaged only 3.5 runs per game, topping four on two occasions. While the Angels have a better offense than the Mariners, it is still dreadful with only veteran Willie Calhoun and young catcher Logan O’Hoppe being consistent producers.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Jose Soriano (LAA at SEA)
Angels at Mariners – 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$7,600 at DraftKings
$8,100 at FanDuel
$38 at Yahoo
First off, RHP Jon Gray was going to be the featured pitcher for this section with a terrific matchup against the White Sox. Of course, that was before looking at his recent performances and seeing he has a high of 78 pitches in his last nine outings, two of which were as a reliever.
Considering that Gray has allowed 26 runs in these 34.1 innings and only has 21 strikeouts, we should probably consider attacking the “lowers” on his points when they are posted on the fantasy pick’em sites. RHP Michael Knack is a viable alternative to Gray, but he too is far from a threat to close out the fifth inning against San Francisco tonight, which would leave him unable to qualify for the win bonus.
That brings us to RHP Jose Soriano in a matchup against the Mariners, who lead the league in strikeouts while scoring the third-fewest runs. Things have been so dismal for Seattle that the team has scored more than two runs only once in the last six games. This is the third time that Soriano has squared off against the M’s, just missing on a quality start at the end of May, and then last Saturday, he tallied six strong innings with only one earned run and five strikeouts. He did have four walks, and while that has been an issue this season, he at least has limited power. This is far from a feel-good spot, but there are not many in the bargain bin tonight.
For more tips on leveraging the Post-Contest Simulator to enhance your lineup analysis, take a look at Steve Buzzard’s guide on how to use simulations to refine your lineup study process!
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Kansas City Royals
Royals vs. Diamondbacks – 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Jordan Montgomery
DK Top Stack %: 6.8%
FD Top Stack %: 6.9%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool LOVES the Coors Field Extravaganza with a game-total approaching 11.5 runs and two dodgy pitchers on the mound. The temperatures are going to be in the upper-80s, which is a boost for offenses. Enjoy!
Now that the obvious has been stated, let’s look at pivots. The Royals will be going against LHP Jordan Montgomery, who is expected to come off the injured reserve after missing nearly a month, having tweaked his arm during a bullpen session. Of course, that was also after ceding eight runs in 2.3 innings to the Minnesota Twins. Montgomery did not have spring training this year, as he was one of the Scott Boras clients (Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman) who did not generate the interest that was promised; Montgomery subsequently left Boras.
In four of his last 10 appearances, the 31-year-old southpaw has allowed six or more runs four times, though the home runs have been reasonable with just seven in this stretch of 52.2 innings. The 22 walks and 76 hits are more concerning, resulting in a 1.86 WHIP, and he only added 38 strikeouts.
Kansas City has been firing on all cylinders with six or more runs in seven of the last 10 games, plating 61 total runners in this stretch. Last night Bobby Witt Jr. just missed the cycle, falling shy by a single — while also being hit by a pitch. Currently he ranks second in the American League with his .341 average while posting 69 RBIs and 22 stolen bases.
Teammate Maikel Garcia has 23 steals, plus the platoon advantage against Monty should have him at the top of the lineup. Veteran catcher Salvador Perez has a long history of success against southpaws, with Hunter Renfroe and his light-tower power a force to be reckoned with as well.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Houston Astros
Astros at Athletics – 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Osvaldo Bido
DK Top Stack %: 8.9%
FD Top Stack %: 8.1%
OK, that was an epic fail yesterday, as Houston was scoreless. Tonight the team will be going against RHP Osvaldo Bido in what is likely going to be a bullpen game. LHPs Kyle Muller and T.J. McFarland, along with RHP Tyler Ferguson, are the most likely to see multiple innings unless someone is promoted from the minors.
Clearly the Astros miss Kyle Tucker, but Yordan Alvarez is one of the most feared hitters in the game, and Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve are finally out of the doldrums. Young Joey Loperfido is a discount dandy from the bottom of the order, though he is best employed on the late slate. Rounding out full stacks for the featured tournaments can include the additions of catcher Yainer Diaz and outfielder Jake Meyers.
Our Lineup Generator offers exceptional value at Stokastic! Learn how to utilize it alongside our other MLB DFS tools by checking out our Lineup Generator Guide!!
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Tonight LHP Ty Blach looks like someone to target with Boston stacks in the DFS world and, even better, the sports wagering market.
Currently, the under on his 2.5 strikeouts stands out on DraftKings, where it is available at +120 odds.
OddsShopper shows this wager has +114 “true odds” for Blach to fall shy of three strikeouts, which brings a 2.7% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Pinnacle all the way down at a -103 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 7% expected ROI.
Blach has made his last four appearances as a reliever, with his most recent start being back on June 20. The venerable veteran will be 34 years old in October, and he has not been efficient in these appearances, with five total innings while averaging just under 29 pitches per game. He is probably stretched out enough to go 50 to 60 pitches, but he may not last that long against the booming Boston bats. Blach projects for just over 2.5 strikeouts, so this will be a nip-and-tuck adventure for the hurler who is averaging 4.9 strikeouts per nine innings this season.
Other wagers appear and disappear within minutes once lineups are announced, making an OddsShopper Premium subscription essential for capitalizing on all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Tuesday, July 23
Chicago and Kansas City look to be the venues to monitor on the featured slate, with Atlanta, of course, having an elevated chance of summer showers. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for updates as the first pitch approaches.
To finalize your MLB DFS picks for today’s slate, tune in to the Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET, sponsored by Underdog. New users can click this link to receive a deposit match up to $250!
