Monday brings a variety of featured slates and start times, so be sure to know what the parameters are for your contests on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Charlie Morton and Chris Bassitt as the key arms to build around, while the Blue Jays and Reds are the teams to target for stacks, along with the Coors Field Extravaganza.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 27
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Charlie Morton (ATL vs. WSH)
Braves vs. Nationals – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
$8,600 at DraftKings
$9,700 at FanDuel
$44 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool likes the matchup this afternoon for RHP Charlie Morton, as Washington has been shut out three times in the last 14 games and has tallied three or fewer runs nine times. Though the Nationals have the eighth-fewest strikeouts in the league, they have the fifth-fewest runs and sixth-fewest home runs.
This is the 17th MLB campaign for Morton, who is in his age-40 season. The venerable veteran continues to be excellent at run prevention with a 3.35 ERA and 3.81 xERA, courtesy of a 47% ground ball rate and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. While that is the lowest strikeout rate for Morton in the last nine seasons, he is still above the hallowed mark of one per inning.
Lane Thomas (knee) is getting close to returning as he wraps up a minor league assignment. Even if he is available, this is still a lineup without anyone to fear outside of himself, CJ Abrams and veteran Eddie Rosario. Luis Garcia is showing signs of a breakout, but he was pedestrian at best last year, so take that with a grain of salt.
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Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Justin Steele (CHC at MIL)
Cubs at Brewers – 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
$7,000 at DraftKings
$7,700 at FanDuel
$34 at Yahoo
Coors Field looms large on the featured slate, with both teams pushing a 5.5 implied total. That makes LHP Justin Steele very desirable given his discounted salary across the main DFS sites. Steele suffered a hamstring injury on Opening Day, which cost him all of April and the first part of May. In his four subsequent starts, he has increased his pitch count each game (66, 74, 88, 93).
Unfortunately, he clearly is rusty, which has resulted in half a dozen round-trippers in his last three starts. He gets a mulligan for the Atlanta game, but Pittsburgh got him for five dingers in a pair of home-and-home matchups. This season, Milwaukee has been a little below average for runs scored against left-handed pitching, with slightly elevated strikeouts (23.9%) and power (.159 ISO). Most of that production has been concentrated with William Contreras, Willy Adames, Christian Yelich and a resurgent Gary Sanchez. There are still four other players in the projected lineup with a sub-.100 ISO and above a 22.6% strikeout rate, which should grant Steele some easy outs.
Early Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Chris Bassitt (TOR at CHW)
Blue Jays at White Sox – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
$8,200 at DraftKings
$9,100 at FanDuel
$39 at Yahoo
In his last start RHP Chris Bassitt logged seven scoreless innings against the White Sox, with five hits, two walks and four strikeouts. Though his four May starts, the 35-year-old veteran has a 2.88 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. The only knock is 19 strikeouts, but in turn he has ceded only one home run.
Chicago has just 37 combined home runs this season and 122 total extra-base hits. That works out to 2.26 per game, so it is no surprise that the team is also averaging a league-worst 2.91 runs per game. The ChiSox have only 157 runs, which is 43 fewer than St. Louis and a whopping 132 behind the league-leading Philadelphia Phillies.
The projected lineup has four hitters who have a .100 ISO or lower, with only two batsmen above a .305 wOBA against right-handed pitching since the start of last year. Even when Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada are healthy, this is still a subpar offense at best.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Cincinnati Reds
Reds vs. Cardinals – 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Lance Lynn
DK Top Stack %: 7.6%
FD Top Stack %: 9.4%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the weather in Cincinnati, where game-time temperatures will be approaching 80 degrees with a 12 to 17 mph breeze out to left field. That does not bode well for RHP Lance Lynn, who will be drawing the start in the most home run-friendly venue in the league today.
Lynn was solid in his last start, allowing one unearned run across six innings to the visiting Baltimore Orioles. In his three starts prior to that, he ceded four runs in each, giving him a 5.23 ERA for May, with 19 strikeouts in 20.2 innings. After allowing home runs at a ridiculous rate of 2.1 per nine innings last year, the 37-year-old has ceded only six through 51.1 innings, with just three in his last eight starts.
Cincinnati has a loaded lineup that boasts a collective .182 ISO against right-handed pitching since the beginning of last year. They will be without TJ Friedl, Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and veteran switch-hitter Jeimer Candelario is dinged up. While that is a long list of missing players, it also means openings and opportunities for some youngsters.
Jacob Hurtubise should be leading off, and he is the punt du jour across the DFS sites. Though he only has one steal in The Show, he did have 45 across Double-A and Triple-A last season. The rookie does not have much in the way of power, but he can fly on the base paths, and if he can get on board, he should be able to score with the parade of hitters behind him.
Elly De La Cruz has nine home runs and 31 stolen bases, so it should not be a surprise to learn that Cincinnati leads the league in swiped bags. The youngster has 20 total extra-base hits and a stellar .453 slugging percentage. Spencer Steer and Jake Fraley are an excellent righty/lefty combo in the heart of the order, and Mike Ford could get a boost in the batting order if Candelario is out. Last but by no means least, the back of the order has Jonathan India and Will Benson in the final two slots, which just goes to show how crazy deep this lineup really is, even with the injuries.
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Early Slate Target: Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays at White Sox – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Nick Nastrini
DK Top Stack %: 11.1%
FD Top Stack %: 28.2%
In his last start, the Blue Jays crushed RHP Nick Nastrini in Toronto, as he lasted 3.1 innings while allowing nine runs, seven hits and a ridiculous six walks. There was nary a strikeout to be had, which is disappointing since that is the one thing the 24-year-old has been able to hang his hat on in the minors.
Nastrini was a fourth-round selection in the 2021 MLB Draft, landing with the Dodgers, who then flipped him to Chicago as part of the Lance Lynn deal. The former UCLA Bruin was not expected to be called up until the 2025 season, but injuries have opened the door for him to get a second cup of coffee this year. He had two rocky outings in April and now sits with an 11.91 ERA and a 2.56 WHIP. Control is a major issue, as he has 13 walks already and most projection systems have him for just over 4.0 per nine innings.
Toronto has struggled to create runs this season, but the team has been on an upswing. Yesterday it had 11 runs, and over the last eight games it has 46 for a 5.75 average. Daulton Varsho, Danny Jansen and Davis Schneider have been carrying the load, so it is good to see Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Bo Bichette start to gain some traction. Those are the key players to target, with Kevin Kiermaier as a potential discount dandy, depending on where he lands in the batting order.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Tylor Megill is on the mound today for the Mets, who are hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers in New York, Currently the under on his 4.5 strikeouts prop is popping up in the models. The -110 wager is currently available at Unibet and BetRivers.
New players on BetRivers Get a 2nd Chance Bet up to $500 ($250 & $100 in certain states) Click here for details.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -128 “true odds,” so the -110 line brings a stellar 6.3% expected ROI. We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with sharp book Pinnacle offering a punitive -143 line. Be a savvy shopper!
Megill does project for 4.3 strikeouts today, which is below the 4.5 threshold and well below the five needed for his under to lose. Of course, that does not account for variable outcomes, though the 56% probability of this under hitting does indicate it is a good bet. This will be the third appearance of the season for Megill, who has been down in the minors for four appearances. He did have 86 pitches and seven strikeouts last Monday in Cleveland, but the matchup against the Dodgers is a tough one. There is also a chance that weather could impact this game, further complicating Megill getting to five strikeouts.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Monday, May 27
There are roving storms that may impact a variety of venues, though the possible postponements are in Minnesota and New York, so be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
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