Thursday brings a myriad of MLB slates, with the main DFS sites coalescing around a four-game featured slate and a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Charlie Morton and Logan Webb as the two top pitching options for tonight’s action. The Coors Field Extravaganza is again the crux of the slate, but there are alternative paths to glory.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 4
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Charlie Morton (ATL vs. SF)
Braves vs. Giants – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
$8,700 at DraftKings
$8,800 at FanDuel
$42 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has embraced that MLB DFS can make for strange bedfellows since tonight it looks like RHP Charlie Morton is the best hurler on the four-game featured slate. While this is his age-40 season, the venerable veteran continues to chug along, and he actually is coming off a jubilant June where he had a 3.10 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, accompanied by 28 strikeouts in 29 innings and only one home run allowed.
Morton continues to get just enough ground balls (45.5%) to avoid major meltdowns. His 9.14 strikeouts per nine innings is his lowest rate since 2015 when he was still with Pittsburgh, which is beyond impressive. San Francisco is a pesky lineup, but there are no daunting bats with Jorge Soler, Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski being the “best” hitters. The Giants projected lineup has a .134 ISO against right-handed hurlers this season and a 23.8% strikeout rate.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Webb (SF at ATL)
Giants at Braves – 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
$8,300 at DraftKings
$9,300 at FanDuel
$44 at Yahoo
Atlanta is still a good offense without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris II, but not an elite offense. The team has tallied three or fewer runs in nine of the last 15 (60%) games, with the 9-3 record being a testament to strong pitching. RHP Logan Webb finished second in the National League Cy Young race last year, but the 27-year-old is still looking for his first All-Star Game.
Webb led the league with 216 innings last year, and he is currently pacing the peloton in starts, innings and total batters faced. Though his strikeouts will never be enough to have him among the elite DFS options, his 61% ground ball rate across his last 1,300 batters faced is impressive. Last month, Webb made six starts against a veritable gauntlet of top-tier offenses. This stretch included road games against the Cardinals, Cubs and Rangers, with home matchups versus the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees. He racked up 40 innings, a 3.83 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a respectable 36 strikeouts, allowing only a trio of taters in these tilts. The win bonus may be hard to come by, but a quality start is in play, even on the road.
Early Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Nick Pivetta (BOS at MIA)
Red Sox at Marlins – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
$8,600 at DraftKings
$8,700 at FanDuel
$42 at Yahoo
Across his last six starts, RHP Nick Pivetta has also faced some good offenses with games in Cincinnati and Toronto while getting home matchups versus Atlanta, Detroit, Philadelphia and San Diego. In these outings, Pivetta has compiled 9.95 strikeouts per nine innings, a 4.83 ERA, 4.45 FIP and 3.86 xFIP. The five home runs in the most recent 10.1 innings are a little concerning, but two were in the Great American Ballpark.
Strikeouts aside, Miami is a bottom-3 team in most standard and advanced offensive metrics. In the last 13 games, the team has scored more than four runs only three times, with two or fewer runs on half a dozen occasions. Pivetta has an appropriate salary for this matchup, but there is still a little room for upside and the baseline floor is very desirable.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Tampa Bay Rays
Rays at Royals – 4.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Alec Marsh
DK Top Stack %: 17.4%
FD Top Stack %: 17.7%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the matchup for Tampa, giving the Rays the non-Coors Field Extravaganza nod for the featured slate. Anytime the Rays are on the road, it is almost always a park upgrade, giving a boost to their non-descript offense. RHP Alec Marsh has seen his results end up all over the place, with mercurial madness.
The 26-year-old held the Yankees scoreless for seven innings, only to give up seven runs in Oakland, lasting only three innings in the very next start. There are flashes of brilliance, but inconsistency still looms large for the youngster.
Tampa does not have as deep a lineup as we have seen in recent years, and the team has been dealing with a myriad of injuries to key hitters. Lefties Brandon and Josh Lowe (no relation) are excellent when they hold the platoon advantage, and Isaac Paredes continues to be an unsung hero with a .362 wOBA and .200 ISO in same-handed matchups this season. Randy Arozarena is the most recognizable name, but he has been in a funk at the plate, along with unconventional leadoff hitter Yandy Diaz. This duo still warrants consideration for full stacks, with Richie Palacios and Jose Siri providing discounted differentiation, depending on your DFS site of choice.
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Early Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
Yankees vs. Reds – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Frankie Montas
DK Top Stack %: 5.8%
FD Top Stack %: 5.9%
Interestingly enough, there is already some buzz today from a couple of early articles that are recommending RHP Frankie Montas. Now please note, this is not besmirching the hard work of my fellow scribes, as I know all too well how hard it is to come up with content every day that has a shelf life, similar to that of a fruit fly. However, if this stand starts to gain traction, I am more than willing to be on the other side.
This is a “Remember Me?!” game for Montas, and the crowd is unlikely to be friendly in any form or fashion. In 2022, New York gave up a haul to bring in Montas at the trade deadline, only to get eight horrific starts that season and just one the following year after Montas missed most of the season with shoulder inflammation. It is good to see Montas contributing again this season, but he is now 31 years old and his 7.22 strikeouts and 3.73 walks per nine innings are no bueno. The 4.23 ERA is supported by his 4.53 xERA and 4.57 xFIP, but that is not going to get it done against the Bronx Bombers.
Even without Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo, the Yankees are still anchored by All-Star starters Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Alex Verdugo continues to be a complete hitter, with a low strikeout rate and above-average contact and power. This makes for a strong core, with options such as Anthony Volpe, Trent Grisham and catcher Ben Rice available to fill out full stacks.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
This has been a rough season for Bo Bichette, and we can target the MLB legacy in the sports wagering world for his under 1.5 total bases, which is available at -103 on Caesars.
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OddsShopper shows this bet has -117 “true odds” for Bichette to fall under this threshold, which brings a stellar 6.4% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by BetRivers and Unibet at -132, which is indicative of a NEGATIVE 5% expected ROI.
In 60 plate appearances against southpaws, Bichette has managed only a .181 wOBA and a .035 ISO. Looking at traditional metrics, in 57 at-bats versus lefties, Bichette has a .158/.200/.193 triple-slash line with nine hits, including two doubles. Last year Bichette was cruising whenever he had the platoon advantage, with a .323/.368/.525 triple-slash and 12 extra-base hits in 99 at-bats.
The matchup against LHP Framber Valdez is not an easy one, as the lefty has a wicked 60%-plus ground ball rate while suppressing extra-base hits. Yes, one swing of the bat or a couple of dying quails could get Bichette to his two total bases, but the math indicates this is exactly the type of wager we should target.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Thursday, July 4
Minnesota looks to be the only location with any precipitation issues, so keep tabs on the forecast if you are playing the early slate. Though, as always, be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.
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