MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 9
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Across his last seven starts, RHP David Festa has a 1-4 record, though it is not because of his efforts. Across these 33 innings, the top prospect has a 3.27 ERA, 2.76 IP, 2.91 xFIP and a lofty 11.73 strikeouts per nine innings, allowing only a trio of taters. The one knock against Festa is that he is averaging 79.1 pitches in these outings, failing to close out the fifth inning twice.
This is a terrific matchup, as Los Angeles is mired in a lost season and limping towards the finish line. The team has just eight wins in the last 28 games, scoring more than three runs in just 10 of these tilts. There are a fair number of strikeouts in the projected lineup for the Halos, which should help Festa succeed tonight.
Hunter Renfroe is active again, so that gives another power bat that can attack Rodon, and despite a reputation for striking out, the nomadic slugger has a scant 14.7% strikeout rate versus opposite-handed hurlers this season. The same goes for Tommy Pham, Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Freddy Fermin and Maikel Garcia whiffing well below league average. However, a pitcher of Rodon’s caliber can make his own magicn and that brings him to the forefront of the projections for Monday’s action.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Boston Red Sox
In his last start, after Your Ol’ Pal recommended the under on his strikeouts, LHP Cade Povich racked up a career-high 10 whiffs. Now that was against the White Sox, so tonight is going to be on the other end of the spectrum. The young lefty has ceded a .203 ISO to right-handed batsmen, with same-handed hitters compiling an elite .191 ISO.
Tyler O’Neill, Romy Gonzalez, catcher Connor Wong and a surprisingly effective Rob Refsnyder are the core four to build around tonight. Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers are good in same-handed matchups but not elite. Plus the Baltimore bullpen is solid. The hope here is that there is a spectacular one- or-two inning meltdown by Povich, who avoids getting pulled until it is too late.
Take your MLB DFS picks to the next level with Stokastic’s Lineup Generator —just follow our detailed Lineup Generator Guide!
Main Slate Secondary Target: Cleveland Guardians
Over the last 30 days, Chicago’s relievers have logged the third-most innings in the league, with a ceiling that is still a far cry from mediocrity. After Shuster, there is only one other southpaw in the bullpen, though Fraser Ellard has worked two of the last three days.
Josh Naylor has power in lefty-lefty matchups, but his contact is below average. Jose Ramirez is once again a fringe MVP candidate, with the switch-hitter once again have a productive season from both sides of the plate. Kyle Manzardo will be better when a right-handed reliever enters the game, but he can survive one at-bat against a fellow lefty.
Steven Kwan and Lane Thomas round out the preferred option, with both likely to see at least five plate appearances tonight at the top of the order in a road game.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
It has been a while since a home run was recommended, so let’s take a look at Andrew McCutchen at home against RHP Valente Bellozo.
The Portfolio EV model has the former MVP with +471 odds of hitting one out of PNC Park tonight.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on FanDuel, where it is available at +500 odds.
Portfolio EV shows this wager has +471 “true odds,” and that works out to a decent 5.1% expected ROI.
We can see that Hard Rock has a punitive +350 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 21% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
This season, McCutchen has a .185 ISO against same-handed hurlers, while Bellozo has allowed a .320 ISO in 108 righty-righty matchups. Of his 18 home runs this year, McCutchen has 13 against righties.
With new wagers constantly appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having an Portfolio EV subscription is crucial to capitalize on every opportunity.
