Thursday has a five-game featured slate with a 6:41 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Today we’ll explore MLB DFS projections and utilize Stokastic’s tools to uncover how to build MLB DFS stacks, find top pitchers and create optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Dylan Cease and Paul Skenes are today’s key pitchers, and according to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles provide stacking opportunities for today’s featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 22
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Paul Skenes (PIT vs. CIN)
Pirates vs. Reds – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:4 p.m. ET
$9,900 at DraftKings
$10,900 at FanDuel
$55 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool is curious to see how the Pirates will be handling the workload for RHP Paul Skenes down the stretch. Indications from the team and conventional wisdom indicate they will continue having him pitch on at least five days of rest, potentially skipping a start while also likely holding him to the five-inning or 85- to 90-pitch range.
Outside of his debut, when he tallied 84 pitches, Skenes has thrown 91 or more in his 15 subsequent starts, with 100 or more on seven occasions, averaging 98.4 pitches in these games. If this matchup were on Friday’s docket, we probably would be skipping over Skenes. However, with the various options and matchups today, he should play a prominent role in the decision-making process.
Even though the former LSU superstar is nearing a career-high workload, he still boasts a 37.1% strikeout rate, which is phenomenal. The projected lineup for the Reds has a 22.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, though three of the hitters in the lineup are dramatically above that, including Elly De La Cruz (31.5%), Will Benson (41.5%) and Noelvi Marte (28.5%). Skenes’ median fantasy point projection is in line with RHP Dylan Cease and 15% to 20% higher than the rest of the starting pitchers in the player pool.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Dylan Cease (SD vs. NYM)
Padres vs. Mets – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$9,400 at DraftKings
$10,100 at FanDuel
$51 at Yahoo
While RHP Dylan Cease has had an uneven season at times, the highs have been high and the lows have been palatable and more annoying than actually disastrous. Including his no-hitter, the 28-year-old has tallied nine or more strikeouts in seven of his 26 (27%) starts.
Cease has four games with five or more earned runs, but the last blemish was on July 2, with the Padres ace boasting a 1.75 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 3.09 xFIP and 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings in the eight subsequent starts.
The New York Mets have scored the 10th-most runs in the league this season and over the last 30 days. The projected lineup has a 24.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this year, which plays to Cease’s strength of a 31.4% combined strikeout rate.
Danger is, of course, lurking with Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and the resurgent J.D. Martinez all being fierce bats, but Cease is a borderline Cy Young-caliber pitcher right now, and there are too many other question marks at the position today.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays vs. Angels – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Griffin Canning
DK Top Stack %: 15.7%
FD Top Stack %: 16.4%
Well hello there RHP Griffin “Tomato” Canning, welcome to Toronto. The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool feels like we have become spoiled with this fun matchup coming up every handful of days, providing a new team to target.
Atlanta was the last team that had a crack at Canning and crushed him for seven runs, eight hits and a pair of round-trippers, striking out just three times. Looking at the last six games, Griffin had compiled a 7.34 ERA, 5.18 FIP and 4.57 xFIP. The 7.63 strikeouts and 3.52 walks per nine innings in this stretch have ensured plenty of ducks on the pond for opposing batsmen.
Toronto has plated 17 runners over the last two games, ranking eighth overall with 4.64 runs per game over the last 30 days. In this stretch, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been phenomenal with a .524 wOBA and a .397 ISO in 88 plate appearances against same-handed pitching. George Springer has found the Fountain of Youth and has a six-game hitting streak, highlighted by a trio of taters and a triple.
Dalton Varsho has been struggling during this stretch, though he has a .198 ISO in lefty-righty matchups this season, with youngsters Spencer Horwitz, Will Wagner and Addison Barger looking like discount dandies while holding the platoon advantage.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Orioles vs. Astros – 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Spencer Arrighetti
DK Top Stack %: 12.5%
FD Top Stack %: 12.9%
It would be a surprise if RHP Spencer Arrighetti had a good night’s sleep on Wednesday, knowing that he will be facing the Batters of Birdland in Camden Yards tonight. Baltimore leads the league in home runs and total bases and ranks third in runs scored.
Arrighetti has been an excellent stopgap option for the Astros, who have seen a plethora of pitcher injuries over the last season and change. He has been better than advertised with 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings, though he also has an elevated walk rate over expectations at 4.2 per nine innings. His 17 home runs have been split with eight going to lefties and nine to fellow righties.
The trio to target for the Orioles is, of course, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander and Colton Cowser at the top of the order. Jackson Holliday and Cedric Mullins provide differentiation from the back of the lineup while also holding the platoon advantage. The Astros have lefty closer Josh Hader, but their two other southpaws have had multiple outings over the last couple days, with Caleb Ferguson going Monday and Tuesday, while Bryan King was on the mound Tuesday and Wednesday. That bodes well for Ryan O’Hearn potentially avoiding a pinch-hit situation.
Ryan Mountcastle and Adley Rutschman can be worked into stacks, though skipping the latter will help create differentiation from other O’s stacks.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Tonight we can look to target RHP Spencer Arrighetti in the sports wagering world for the under on his 5.5 strikeouts.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on FanDuel, where it is available at -128 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has –137 “true odds” for the first-time All-Star to fall shy of six strikeouts.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced with Fliff posting a -175 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 9% expected ROI.
Surprisingly, despite all of the power, the projected Baltimore lineup has a terrific 19.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Arrighetti has been good against weaker teams, but there a strong possibility that he will wilt in the face of this elite offense. The rookie projects for 4.74 strikeouts in this matchup, which is solidly below the six he would need to record to torpedo the under on this wager.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Thursday, Aug. 22
Mother Nature is again smiling on the baseball world with favorable weather across the slate. Though before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
