Thursday has a decision filled, four-game featured slate, locking at 7:10 p.m. on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Carlos Rodon and Reynaldo Lopez as the key arms to build around, while Toronto and the Nationals are the teams to target for stacks, along with the Coors Field Extravaganza.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 30
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY at LAA)
Yankees at Angels – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
$8,200 at DraftKings
$9,600 at FanDuel
$44 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has not yet tired of recommending the New York Yankees against the Los Angeles Angels in this Anaheim-based series. Up on the mound today is LHP Carlos Rodon, who is looking like he is in peak form.
Rodon has longed confused and flummoxed DFS gamers, with his tantalizing, yet erratic results. Somehow his 6-2 record, 2.95 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and nearly a strikeout per inning, well they still do not provide comfort when rostering Rodon. That is the power of perception and name recognition. Said another way, what if we could roster a pitcher has allowed two or less runs in nine of 11 starts? Well that sounds great and it is Rodon, for those wondering, in those other two starts he allowed three and six runs, with the latter at matchup in Baltimore against the Batters of Birdland who tattooed Rodon for three of his nine home runs on the season. Rodon has seven, quality starts, which is the 15th most in the league and just two behind the league leaders.
Though Rodon is a lefty like teammate Nestor Cortes, they have a dissimilar pitching style and last night the Angels had to deal with RHP Luis Gill. That means this will be their third-consecutive game against a different type of hurler, each who is at the top of their game. Los Angeles has just 18 runs in the last six games, The projected lineup asl has five hitters striking out at a 23% or greater rate against right-handed pitching over the last season and change.
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Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Reynaldo Lopez (ATL vs. WSH)
Braves vs. Nationals – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
$8,000 at DraftKings
$9,000 at FanDuel
$43 at Yahoo
The second pitcher who is recommended for Thursday’s action is another former Chicago White Sox hurler, who is also in fine form. RHP Reynaldo Lopez has spent the last three seasons as a reliever, with his last “full-time” stint in the rotation, back in the pandemic shortened 2020 season when he made eight starts for Chicago.
Lopez was solid working out of the bullpen, but he wanted to get back into a starting role. Last year he made 13 appearances for the Angels and after being released, he was Guardians claimed off waivers by the Guardians, who sent him out to the mound a dozen times. Atlanta decided they had seen enough and gave him a three-year, $26 million contract and a chance to make the rotation.
Lopez has not disappointed and while he has just two victories in nine starts, he also has a 1.75 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and almost a strikeout per inning. While he has been lucky, his 2.86 FIP and 3.86 xFIP are still terrific and his strikeouts have been a little lower than what the season long projection systems had him pegged for.
While the Nationals delivered as Wednesday’s Wild Card stack, they were going against a very green rookie, who was making a spot-start. Lopez should be able to hold his own, with a potential for a quality start in play. The projected lineup for Washington has four hitters striking out 23% or higher against right-handed pitching since the start of last year with the collective crew barely cobbling together a .100 ISO.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Atlanta Braves
Braves vs. Nationals – 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Trevor Williams
DK Top Stack %: 20.3%
FD Top Stack %: 21.2%
Picking on RHPs Erick Fedde and Trevor Williams has not been a lucrative strategy by Your Ol’ Pal, yet here we are again. Williams is coming off a season-high eight strikeouts, surviving against the visiting Seattle Mariners, allowing one solo-shot.
If you do not believe in the dark arts or voodoo magic, then there really is no other plausible reason for a 32-year-old, who allowed 34 home runs last year, to be posting an immaculate stat line like Williams. He has a 2.29 ERA that is TWO FULL RUNS below his career 4.36 ERA, with a 1.08 WHIP that is almost 30% better than his typical baserunner metrics. Looking at his pitch mix, his fastball is down two mph over the last two seasons and the only other “different” thing is that he is using a slider/sweeper 15% more than last year, abandoning his curveball and going away from his fastball, which he is using a career-low 48.4% of the time, down 10% from last season and 20% for his career.
Obviously missing Ronald Acuna Jr. is a massive blow, but Sean Murphy is back and Michael Harris II is ready for an expanded role in the offense. Marcell Ozuna is posting his best numbers in five years and former Seattle prospect Jarred Kelenic has been passable. That still leaves Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies, who qualify as a stack unto themselves. Once the clock strikes midnight on CinderWilliams, the crooked numbers should finally appear on the scoreboard.
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Main Slate Target: New York Yankees
Yankees at Angels – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Patrick Sandoval
DK Top Stack %: 18.3%
FD Top Stack %: 16.5%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is comfortable going with the Yankees, even though their popularity will rival that of Atlanta. Finding secondary mini-stacks or a couple of unique one-offs today should not be hard, even with the eight-team player pool. There also is an argument to shake things up at pitcher, with RHPs Zac Gallen, Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta and rookie Christian Scott. There are ample decision points on tonight’s slate, which should make for a wild ride!
The start to the season was decent for LHP Patrick Sandoval, but that success was not to be sustained. In his last three starts, he has a 7.74 ERA, 6.45 FIP and a .313/.384/.531 triple-slash line. Even expanding that to his last seven starts, which includes a 7-inning shutout in Pittsburgh, the 27-year-old has a 6.03 ERA, 4.41 FIP and a .286/.354/.456 triple-slash line. He does have 39 strikeouts in these 37.1 innings, while being a little unlucky, but not enough to avoid stacking against him.
Sandoval has been okay from a power perspective, but his walks against right-handed hitters is elevate, which is a dangerous prospect against Aaron Judge and Gian Carlo Stanton. Leadoff man Anthony Volpe has settled in nicely as the leadoff man, though veteran Gleyber Torres has dramatically underperformed at the plate. Juan Soto of course is one of the best all-around hitters in the game and he is just fine when facing fellow lefties. If Jose Trevino is behind the dish, he is a solid punt option, while maintaining the stacking synergy.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Colt Keith is popping in the OddsShopper model with the under on his 1.5 total base prop. The -170 wager is currently available at PointsBet and Unibet.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -189 “true odds,” so the -170 line brings a decent 3.8% expected ROI. We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with sharp book Unibet and BetRivers offering -230 lines. Be a savvy shopper!
Keith is a decent prospect, ranking third overall in the Detroit system and flirting with the top-50 on industry lists. He was a fifth-round selection in the 2020 MLB Draft, coming straight from high school. Detroit thought enough to secure him to a 6-year, $28.6 million dollar contract, so clearly this is a key player for the rebuild. The 22-yeaer-old has prodigious power and a decent eye, but he still has just 300 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. There is nothing to lose for the Tigers to run him out in the lineup most days and he is likely to be a fixture going forward.
The power has yet to manifest as Keith has a .276 wOBA and a .070 ISO in 140 lefty-righty matchups in The Show. The rookie has just a 16.4% strikeout rate, so he is live for a multi-hit game, but has just eight in his 48 (16.7%) games. In three of his games where he doesn’t have multiple hits, he does have a double, which would clear the 1.5 total base milestone. Still that is just 11 of 48 (22.9%) games and while RHP Nick Pivetta has power struggles, he should be able to take care of business against a rookie.
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Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Thursday, May 30
Boston looks like the one venue that may be dealing with Mother Nature today, so be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
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