MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 28
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Flaherty is looking to close the book on April with a strong showing, improving upon his 2.63 ERA, 3.55 xERA and twin 3.09 FIP/xFIP, buoyed by a lofty 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The strikeouts are where things are a little tricky. Since the start of last year, Flaherty has been making his own magic with a 28.3% combined strikeout rate across 858 batters faced. On the flipside, the active Houston roster has a collective 19.7% strikeout rate in that same timeframe, which is the fifth lowest in the league. Parsing things out to just the projected lineup, it does get a little better for Flaherty with a 21.8% strikeout rate over the last season-plus.
There are also four hitters who have struck out well above league average in that period, including Christian Walker (25.3%), who can make any pitcher pay, then the back of the lineup in Zach Dezenzo (27.1%), Cam Smith (27.1%) and Jake Meyers (23.3%). The latter trio hardly offers any power (.112 ISO) or contact (.283 wOBA) to worry about.
Flaherty is the third-most rostered pitcher on DraftKings and FanDuel while checking in with the second-most popularity on Yahoo. Be careful with chalky builds when there are just 12 teams in the player pool, including the Coors Field Extravaganza and shallow pitching selections.
In his first start last season, he no-hit the Toronto Blue Jays, which is pretty cool for a player who began his career as a position player, not making the full-time switch to pitching until he was 18. That caught the attention of Houston, who signed him four years later. Blanco profiles as a middle of the rotation starter with some strikeout ability, keeping him above the “innings eater” category, though he has been great at answering the bell when his turn in the rotation comes up and also at preventing runs.
He was definitely lucky last year with a 2.80 ERA not really supported by his 4.00 xERA, 4.15 FIP and 4.09 xFIP. Fly balls are his weakness, particularly to left-handed hitters. That means Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene are potential kryptonite and two of the better batsmen for the Motor City Kitties. Playing one of them in lineups against Blanco is a quick way for differentiation from the field and not exactly a horrible idea, even though most will claim it is “sub-optimal,” which is true, though not to the degree most believe.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Any team after Atlanta is the secondary target, with the Braves boasting the top stack score across all sites in Colorado against RHP Ryan Feltner.
The Athletics are in Texas against LHP Patrick Corbin, who is on borrowed time. Both sides of that matchup have been covered multiple times over the last fortnight, so let’s look at something a little different.
Most gamers are likely to have some vague name recognition for RHP Edward Cabrera, who was a long-time top prospect for the Marlins, though injuries have held him back nearly every season in The Show. Since the start of 2021, he has bounced between the majors and minors when healthy, never quite breaking through to capitalize on his immense potential.
There is no denying his strikeout ability with 10.09 per nine innings across 308.2 career frames, but walks are a MASSIVE issue at 5.13 per nine in that same timeframe, which is almost unheard of and compounded by 1.31 home runs per nine.
The 5.5 team total for the boys in blue is going to have gamers on this stack, but Los Angeles is far from overrepresented in tournaments tonight. Core stacks, as always, can be crafted around the trio of MVPs at the top of the order in Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddy Freeman, with burgeoning slugger Teoscar Hernandez ensconced in the cleanup slot.
Savvy gamers will be looking to the latter half of the order for differentiation and discounted bats with upside. Max Muncy and Michael Conforto both profile particularly well against Cabrera, which has them standing out, along with switch-hitter Tommy Edman and catcher Will Smith, who can help meet the pesky backstop requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo. That, friends, is how you get a contrarian Dodgers stack from a team with a 5.5 team total.
Main Slate Invisible Target: Miami Marlins
There are clearly other arms available if RHP Dustin May struggles, but it also would not be a surprise if manager Dave Roberts affords May the opportunity to work out of trouble, particularly since he has just 213.2 MLB innings to his name since debuting in 2019 due to the myriad of injuries he has dealt with over the years.
Similar to his opposing mound mate tonight, May was a long-time prospect for the Dodgers, also rating in the top 20 on most industry sheets back in the 2020 season. Even though most season-long projection systems have him for around a strikeout per inning, the pitcher fondly known as Gingergaard has never been able to sustain that level of production. He mostly lives as a ground baller these days, limiting home runs but certainly not contact.
This is an interesting leverage spot for selective hitters rather than a full stack since, of course, Miami has a miniscule sub-3% probability of being the highest-scoring fantasy team tonight. Jesus Sanchez and Connor Norby each missed the early portion of the season with oblique issues, but they have been back for 10-plus games and are decent options against right-handed hurlers. Rookie catcher Agustin Ramirez does have power, and first baseman Eric Wagaman is also progressing nicely. Looking at this group as duos or even trios on the late slate is a fine way to get direct leverage against one of the more popular pitchers tonight, with significant differentiation.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.
Take Jesus Sanchez under 0.5 total bases, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
Just like one DFS lineup won’t guarantee a takedown, one bet won’t define your night — it’s the consistent process that leads to profit.
Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
This wager underscores the potential futility for the Marlins, despite them getting a callout in the DFS portion of this article. Keep in mind that walks and hit by pitches do not count towards total bases, so essentially this wager is proffering +150 odds for Sanchez to go hitless tonight. Getting a median projection for total bases is tricky because baseball is baseball. Tonight Sanchez projects for 1.4 total bases, but he could easily go 0-for-5 or 0-for-3 with a walk, etc. Baseball wagers need to be applied against a long time horizon because that is how the sport unfolds across a 162-game marathon season.
In his 11 games, Sanchez went hitless six times, though he averaged 1.1 total bases in this stretch which is “more than double” the 0.5 total bases he needs for tonight. Keep in mind, there are no fractional bases — that is how the math works out in making this a favorable wager for the under.
TLDR: just let Portfolio EV do the heavy lifting and mental gymnastics while trusting in the tried and true top-down betting world.
