Thursday brings a rain-soaked day of baseball, which is going to loom large over every decision. The league tends to use Thursdays as a travel day, so most games are in the early window, with a uniform 12:20 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Look to Freddy Peralta as the top arm, but know there is significant weather risk.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 11
MLB DFS Picks: Featured Slate Thoughts
Between the early start and the significant weather impact across three of the five games on Thursday’s featured slate, here is a listing of pitchers and thoughts.
Freddy Peralta at Cincinnati Reds: Strikeouts are the calling card for Peralta, who recorded a career-high 210 across a personal-best 165.2 innings and 30 starts last year. Weather is a risk in Cincinnati, and the Great American SMALLpark is, of course, the most homer friendly in the league. Peralta is three years removed from his lone All-Star campaign, but he does have 15 strikeouts in his first two starts across 11.2 innings. There is a medium chance of a delay for this matchup.
Hunter Brown at Kansas City: Weather should not be an issue here — well, other than windy conditions from third base to first base in the 15 to 25 mph range. Brown was solid in his first season as a full-time starter, logging 155.2 innings and 178 strikeouts for 10.3 per nine innings. Most projection systems see him as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter while maintaining just over a strikeout per inning. Budding superstar Bobby Witt Jr. and veteran Salvador Perez are the steadying bats in the lineup, giving protection to the developing Vinnie Pasquantino and MJ Melendez. Because of the weather, Brown will be overrepresented in tournaments, so feel free to take a one-off against him in the same lineup and do not be shy about creating a leverage stack with Kansas City.
Brady Singer vs. Houston Astros: Singer is basically Brown after hitting the fast-forward button a couple of seasons. He is a capable No. 3 starter who does a decent job limiting walks and home runs but never quite gets the strikeout consistency desired by DFS gamers. Similar to Brown, he is likely to be overused in tournaments and taking any of the top 5 Houston hitters against him in the same lineup is fine. Going with a pair on DraftKings and Yahoo, where two starting pitchers are required, is not that outrageous, considering the unique nature of this particular slate.
Jon Gray vs. Oakland Athletics: This is a great matchup against a mostly punch-less offense. Gray is basically what we can expect from Singer in five years. Gray ceded five runs in 3.2 innings during his first start against the Cubs, though he did sort of survive against the Astros in his next outing, with two unearned runs. To his credit, Gray was actually a solid starter for six-plus seasons in Coors Field. Of course, he is going to be 33 years old this offseason and benefits from the friendly pitching environment of Globe Life Field when the roof is closed and a tremendous offense behind him. Expect around 90 pitches today, with an attainable ceiling being something in the quality start range.
Allan Winans vs. New York Mets: Winans began the season with Triple-A Gwinnett, though he will now slot into the rotation with the injury to Spencer Strider. Last year he had glimpses of potential but clearly was not polished enough after just six starts and 32.1 innings to return to The Show, without some improvements. He only received one start, getting five strikeouts in 5.2 innings and allowing a pair of solo shots. If there were no weather concerns today, he would not even be worthy of a mention, but here we are — definitely best reserved as an SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo. He is worthy of stacking against with the top 6 in the Mets order.
Jose Quintana at Atlanta Braves: No way Jose, but say yes to the Atlanta hitters. It should be no surprise, but they are the top stack on this slate and pretty much any of them are in play. The Masses will see this as well, so be savvy about finding some differentiation in the large-field tournaments. This can be done by skipping the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr. or Austin Riley in stacks or looking to Adam Duvall, Orlando Arcia and whoever is catching as a bottom of the order stack.
JP Sears at Texas Rangers: The defending World Series Champions are very much in play and will be nearly as popular as Atlanta. Don’t forget that Corey Seager is outstanding in same-handed matchups, but do remember that, like Atlanta, this team will be overrepresented in tournaments. Adolis Garcia and Ezequiel Duran are the best bets for extra-base hits.
Nick Martinez vs. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brew Crew has been inconsistent on offense, but Milwaukee has been letting Brice Turang run wild on the basepaths and he already has seven steals. Through three games in this venue, Milwaukee has scored eight, nine and seven runs, and 36 of the 65 runs plated by this squad have come over the last four games as catcher William Contreras hammered four hits, including a pair of home runs on Sunday against the Mariners. Rhys Hoskins is off to a strong start, as is Jackson Chourio, with Christian Yelich and Willy Adames being the most recognizable names.
Pablo Lopez at Detroit Tigers: Lopez was everything that Minnesota could have hoped for when they acquired him for Luis Arraez. Actually, both teams were thrilled, as Arraez won his second consecutive batting title and Lopez made his first All-Star Game while having his best totals in most counting categories and close to it for the efficiency metrics. The Tigers have the fourth-fewest runs in the league, with just 3.45 per outing. Sadly, this game is definitely going to have rain for most of the day, and it is the most likely to be postponed.
Update: Twins-Tigers has been postponed.
Tarik Skubal vs. Minnesota Twins: Skubal only got in half a season last year after missing the first part recovering from flexor tendon surgery. He already had Tommy John surgery, and until the doctors began the operation, they were not sure if he would end up needing that for a second time or if it would be the “less” impactful flexor tendon repair. It was the latter, but that comes with nearly a full year of rehabilitation. The anemic Oakland A’s got to Skubal in his second start for a pair of round-trippers, but the 27-year-old southpaw has already rolled up 15 strikeouts in 12.1 innings. Weather is likely to cost us this game, but it is important to note that, even though the Twins have several injured players, the projected lineup has just a 13.0% strikeout rate against lefties dating back to the beginning of last season.
Update: Twins-Tigers has been postponed.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Currently there are +105 lines available for the Allan Winans’ under 4.5 strikeouts prop on BetMGM and Hard Rock, with Caesars right there at +104. OddsShopper shows this bet has -113 “true odds,” and the +105 line currently available at the aforementioned books provides an elite 8.8% expected return on investment (ROI).
Using OddsShopper to scan the entire marketplace, we can see that most books are in the +100 to -105 range, with sharp book Pinnacle posting a painful -126 line.
This wager has around a 53% expected win rate, so getting it at plus money is key. Last year in his 32.1 innings in the majors, Winans had a healthy 9.46 strikeout per nine innings. In his six appearances, he had fewer than five strikeouts twice, five once and six or more three times. In his lone start for Gwinnett, the soon-to-be 29-year-old threw 86 pitches with 54 strikes, allowing two home runs. Today he projects for just over four strikeouts, so this will likely go down to the wire.
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Final Thoughts for Thursday, April 11 — MLB DFS Picks
Similar to yesterday, the Midwest, East Coast and Atlanta are all looking at some precipitation. Boston, Cincinnati, Detroit and Philadelphia are the venues to watch.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show at 11:30 p.m. ET, brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.
