Monday brings a variety of featured-slate configurations, so be cognizant of the variables on your DFS site of choice, including DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Today we’ll dive into MLB DFS projections and use Stokastic’s tools to see how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers, and create optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Bryce Miller and Ryan Pepiot are two of today’s key arms, and according to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals provide non-Coors Field stacking opportunities as featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 26
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Bryce Miller (SEA vs. TB)
Mariners vs. Rays – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$8,900 at DraftKings
$9,400 at FanDuel
$47 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool is focusing on the Pacific Northwest for tonight’s hurlers. This is a matchup between two offenses that have struggled to find their footing, particularly in the last month.
Tampa has tallied 87 runs over the last 30 days, averaging 3.34 per game. This is ahead of only the White Sox and Athletics while trailing the Diamondbacks by 101 runs during this timeframe. The Rays have struck out 26.3% of the time in this stretch, which is the fourth most in the league.
The projected lineup for Tampa has five different hitters who have struck out at least 25% or more of the time against right-handed hurlers this season. Brandon Lowe (25.3%, .240 ISO), Christopher Morel (26.3%, .172 ISO), Jose Siri (38.4%, .170) and Josh Lowe (29.6%, .169 ISO) bring power with their strikeouts, but that is going to be somewhat mitigated by pitching-friendly T-Mobile Park, plus temperatures in the low-60s.
RHP Bryce Miller has improved across the board from his rookie campaign, improving his ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate and efficiency with 15.2 pitches per inning. Over his last nine starts, the 26-year-old had a 2.28 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 3.68 xFIP, 8.42 strikeouts per nine innings and a scant four home runs allowed.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Ryan Pepiot (TB at SEA)
Rays at Mariners – 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$8,200 at DraftKings
$8,000 at FanDuel
$47 at Yahoo
The second pitcher tonight is a bit of a coinflip, with RHPs Nick Pivetta and Ryan Pepiot being the two hurlers rising up above the other options. The Blue Jays (4.9 runs per game) have been surging over the last month, while Seattle has been muddling along (4.4) and continuing to strike out at an absurd 27.1% rate.
Former Tampa batsmen Luke Raley (scratched Sunday with an illness) and Randy Arozarena will be saying hello to some old friends tonight and welcoming Pepiot with their elevated strikeout rates. It is easier to list the only Mariner in the projected lineup with a sub-25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, which is Josh Rojas (19.5%). Across his last 556 batters faced, Pepiot has a solid 25.5% strikeout rate.
Pepiot missed a month with a knee infection, attributed to a spider bite. Though that was an odd injury, it did help him keep his arm fresh. In the two outings since returning to action, the 27-year-old has a 1.59 ERA, 0.885 WHIP and 10 strikeouts in 11.1 innings of work.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: San Diego Padres
Padres at Cardinals – 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Kyle Gibson
DK Top Stack %: 6.5%
FD Top Stack %: 6.4%
The Coors Field Extravaganza looms large tonight, with the Marlins and Rockies having nearly a 30% chance at being the top stack for the night on DraftKings and Yahoo. In a twist, it is actually the New York Yankees leading the way on FanDuel while rating second on Yahoo, with these sites electing to include the 6 o’clock action.
It is fun to see RHP Kyle Gibson keep chugging along as a decent “real life” pitcher, but his lack of strikeouts and occasional issues with power have continued to become more pronounced and frequent as he heads towards his 37th birthday. Over his last five starts, he has ceded five home runs, with a 5.14 ERA, 4.85 FIP and 4.36 xFIP. While those are not great numbers, between the favorable weather and the power upside of the Padres, this is a good pivot from the Coors Field Extravaganza.
Jake Cronenworth and Jurickson Profar are the top 2 hitters tonight from the Friars. Each has borderline elite power from the left side of the plate, which is a weakness for Gibson. Manny Machado is adept against pitchers of either handedness, with rookie phenom Jackson Merrill worthy of his elevating salary.
David Peralta and catcher Kylee Higashioka can be used for differentiation, though it looks like San Diego is barely cracking the top 5 most popular stacks.
Unlock the full potential of Stokastic’s Lineup Generator and elevate your MLB DFS picks with our detailed Lineup Generator Guide!
Main Slate Secondary Target: St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals vs. Padres – 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Randy Vasquez
DK Top Stack %: 7.8%
FD Top Stack %: 6.5%
Well, hello there, RHP Randy Vasquez; you have been missed by the DFS world. The soon-to-be 26-year-old has been recalled from Triple-A, where he made two starts for the El Paso Chihuahuas. Yes, this is the Pacific Coast League, but 7.1 innings with 10 “Ernies” and a trio of taters is not good for a supposedly MLB-caliber pitcher.
All told, in five starts made during two different demotion periods, Vasquez had an 8.78 ERA and 11 walks in 26.1 innings. The 27 strikeouts were solid but only one more than the 26 earned runs allowed by the struggling starter.
Somehow 38-year-old Matt Carpenter is still getting meaningful at-bats as the Cardinals watch their postseason hopes fade. Catcher Willson Contreras was placed on the injured reserve after suffering a fractured finger when he was hit by a pitch yesterday. Tommy Edman has returned to action, though it is for the Dodgers since he was traded last month. Paul Goldschmidt has been dropped in the order against right-handed pitching, which makes sense considering his dreadful production and that he will turn 37 in two weeks.
So why recommend the Redbirds? Go back and read the first paragraph in this section detailing the bona fides for Vasquez. Goldy, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson are all in play tonight, providing options at a variety of price points and positions. If he lands in the leadoff slot, Masyn Winn will become a discount dandy, though he is otherwise a whole lotta meh.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
There are a lot of ways things can go sideways in Coors Field, which makes picking on RHP Edward Cabrera a fun gambit in the sports betting world, where there is value in the under on 5.5 strikeouts.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on FanDuel, where it is available at +112 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has +108 “true odds” for the venerable veteran to fall below seven strikeouts, which works out to an adequate 2.1% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced with Hard Rock posting a -105 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 6% expected ROI.
Cabrera projects for 4.92 strikeouts in this matchup, but keep in mind he also has been working through some walk issues this season. In his last 10 starts, he has recorded three, two, four, eight, seven, six, one, seven, four and one strikeout. He also has 11 home runs and 28 walks in these 46 innings.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Monday, Aug. 26
After the better part of a week without precipitation considerations, we have a few spots to watch in Boston, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Washington. Before locking in your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time draws near.
