MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 7
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
The Yahoo Fantasy salary algorithm has the fairest estimate for RHP Tobias Myers, in a cherry matchup against the Rockies, who struggle on the road. Colorado’s active roster has an 80 wRC+ on the road, which is the lowest in the league. Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes various components, such as park factor, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100. This indicates that the Rockies create runs 20% less efficiently than league average, when away from their home park.
For additional perspective, the Rockies have a 96 wRC+ when at home, which of course is below league average. Again, keep in mind this is an efficiency rating, since Coors Field obviously has more raw runs scored per game than most parks year in and year out. Finally, the Rox are also 12% less efficient than league average, when facing right-handed pitching, leading the league with a 26.9% strikeout rate, just edging the K-happy Seattle Mariners.
Myers began his MLB journey back in 2016, when he was a third-round selection by Baltimore, directly out of high school. The next season he was moved to Tampa for Tim Beckham (remember him?!), working his way up the MiLB ladder, prior to being sent to Cleveland after the 2021 season, for Junior Caminero. 2022 was a busy year for Myers, who was traded to San Francisco, then waived at the trade deadline, claimed by the Chicago White Sox, then again released after a dreadful 1-15 season with a 7.82 ERA. In November of 2022, Milwaukee signed the baseball nomad to a minor-league contract, becoming the Myer’s fourth MLB organization in the calendar year.
Clearly there is some underlying talent with Myers, otherwise why be drafted out of high school, traded for twice and given Triple-A innings by five different organizations. He projects as a back of the rotation starter and should carve out a nice role for himself over the next five or six seasons. The main projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat) have him with around eight strikeouts and a tick shy of three walks per nine innings, with average power suppression metrics.
While he is not particularly efficient, Myers should be able to close out the fifth inning with his 90-to-95 pitches and be in a position to qualify for the win. The seven walks and three round-trippers in the last three starts (14.2 innings) are concerning, but the 16 strikeouts are nice and of course so is today’s matchup. For those diehards in season long leagues with daily moves, Myers is a great streaming option.
Schwellenbach has delivered on his no.2 prospect status in Atlanta, with 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings, a 3.69 ERA, 3.06 xERA, 3.12 FIP and 3.21 xFIP. Toronto does a decent job of limiting strikeouts, but the team is also leaning on a lot of young, unproven talent with the likes of Spencer Horwitz, Will Wagner, Addison Barger, Ernie Clement and Joey Loperfido. These players collectively, barely have a year and a half of service time. This has lead to inconsistent results, with the team scoring three or fewer runs in six of the last nine games, with four, nine and 15 in the other three.
Schwellenbach is not safe enough to be considered as a “cash game” (H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.). Tournaments are a different story, where he is projecting to be underrepresented on all three main MLB DFS platforms.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Milwaukee Brewers
This season, Blach has averaged a career-low 4.66 strikeouts per nine innings, with a dreadful 6.00 ERA, 6.87 xERA, 5.90 FIP and 5.10 xFIP. This is not all Coors Field, since he has a 7.88 ERA on the road, with a 6.27 ERA at home. This has also bizarrely held true across his last three seasons with Colorado.
William Contreras, Gary Sanchez, Rhys Hoskins and Joey Ortiz are the core four tonight, though most sites have Contreras and Sanchez only available as catchers. Willy Adames continues to be better in same-handed matchups this season, but he still is a viable option in the heart of the order. Jackson Chourio and Blake Perkins are in play from the top of the lineup, giving gamers plenty of ways to craft Beermakers stacks.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Texas Rangers
While his last four starts have been particularly rough, we can reach back seven games and still see an alarming trend. In these 38.2 innings, Anderson has a solid 8.38 strikeouts per nine innings, but his 5.59 ERA, 5.07 FIP and 4.52 xFIP show his struggles, as does a 1.63 home runs per nine innings ratio. He also has allowed 15 extra-base hits, including seven round-trippers, which works out to almost one every other inning, along with 18 free-passes.
The focus should be on the top of the order, with veterans Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia looking to pick up the slack, with Corey Seager sidelined with yet another injury. Youngsters Wyatt Langford and the finally healthy Josh Jung, will likely be slotted between their more experienced peers, giving them a chance at five plate appearances from the top part of the order. Looking to this team as duos and trios is probably the best bet, with a focus on a different “full-stack” to anchor the roster.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
RHP Gavin Williams is looking like an opportunity in the sports wagering market. He has a tough matchup tonight against the Dodgers in Los Angeles.
The OddsShopper model has the 25-year-old hurler for around 4.7 strikeouts tonight, which is below the 5.5 strikeouts being offered across various sportsbooks.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on DraftKings where it is available at -135 odds.
OddsShopper’s Portfolio EV shows this wager has -143 “true odds” for the erstwhile ace to fall short of six strikeouts, and that works out to an acceptable 2.3% expected ROI.
We can see that Pinnacle has a ridiculous -183line, which works out to NEGATIVE 9% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
In his last 10 appearances, Williams has recorded six, six, five, five, three, eight, eight, nine, five, two and five strikeouts. Those truly display a high-level of variance, particularly the pair of eight whiff games, and a niner, with three and five punchout efforts on either side.
The projected lineup for Los Angeles has a 19.5% strikeout rate this season against right-handed hurlers, while Williams boasts an above average 24.5%. The Dodgers have everyone healthy now, which makes them a daunting lineup that could easily send any opposing pitcher to the showers early.
With new wagers constantly appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having an Portfolio EV subscription is crucial to capitalize on every opportunity.
