MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 6
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
The salary of Tarik Skubal is incredibly enticing on DraftKings, so at least one-third of all rosters will have him in the large-field tournaments. On FanDuel, he drops to around 5% representation, with twice that on Yahoo.
All the analysis we need is that the American League Cy Young Award frontrunner is going against the second-most strikeout friendly team in the league. The Athletics have some pop in their lineup with the likes of Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday, Shea Langeliers and Daz Cameron, but Skubal is allowing a scant .115 ISO on the season, with a 30.3% strikeout rate. Easy peasy.
Just how bad are the White Sox seems to be a “five days a week” question that is pondered in this space. Today we have fresh proof, with RHP Nick Pivetta seeing a 3.1 implied run total that is threatening to go lower on a couple sportsbooks.
Pivetta was not pretty in August, with a 5.23 ERA across four road starts. Of course, three of those games were in Arlington, Baltimore and Houston — with the most recent matchup taking place in Detroit. The 31-year-old still had 19 strikeouts in this 20.2 innings, so tonight will feel like a walk in the park. Pivetta has eight or more strikeouts in five of his last 11 starts and 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
The active Chicago roster has a 77 wRC+ this season against right-handed pitching, which is well below the second-worst team (Angels, 85 wRC+). The ChiSox somehow beat the Orioles 8-1 in Baltimore on Wednesday, ending a 12-game losing streak, their third of at least 11-plus games this season.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Boston Red Sox
RHP Davis Martin was called up to The Show a year earlier than expected, though it looks like the cake is not quite done and should be put back in the oven. Devers and Duran, salaries aside, are popping in all models against Martin’s pitching profile. Wilyer Abreu, Tyler O’Neill and Triston Casas are the trio to target without breaking the bank, and truly anyone else with a low-ish salary like catcher Connor Wong or middle infielders Ceddanne Rafaela and Enmanuel Valdez can be employed as cheap access to this matchup.
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Late Slate Primary Target: San Diego Padres
RHP Mason Black is more likely end up as a rotation regular, when compared to his White Sox counterpart, but he too looks like he reached The Show a little too early. In his Triple-A action, he has shown promise, but still needs some work on his breaking balls (sinker and sweeper). By next spring, there is a good chance the DFS world is using him as a cheap SP2 in specific matchups, but that is then and this is now.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is back which makes the Friars a daunting matchup and dropping rookie phenom Jackson Merrill down to the seven-hole and more importantly, getting Xander Bogaerts and his mostly contact, little power skillset away from the top of the lineup, where he is tempting.
Look to boppers Manny Machado, Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth as the trio to build around, with Tatis and Merrill. Skipping leadoff man Luis Arraez will aid with differentiation, though it is hard to avoid the three-time batting champion.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
RHP Edward Cabrera is looking like an opportunity in the sports wagering market.
The OddsShopper model has the 28-year-old hurler for around 4.9 strikeouts tonight, which is below the 5.5 strikeouts being offered across various sportsbooks.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Fliff where it is available at -120 odds.
OddsShopper’s Portfolio EV shows this wager has -132 “true odds” for the erstwhile ace to fall short of six strikeouts, and that works out to a strong 4.4% expected ROI.
We can see that Pinnacle has a ridiculous -160 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 7% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
In his last nine appearances, Cabrera has recorded three, eight, three, two, four, eight, seven, six and one strikeouts. Those truly display a high-level of variance, particularly the two eight and the one and two whiff games.
With new wagers constantly appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having an Portfolio EV subscription is crucial to capitalize on every opportunity.
